Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Toledo 25.7, Western Michigan 24.7 at Glass Bowl in Week 8. That is a genuine toss-up: Toledo wins about 53% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1 points and 50.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Western Michigan is 5-2, scoring 25 and allowing 16.9 points per game (+8.1 per game). Toledo is 5-2, scoring 36.3 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+12.7 per game).
Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense) meets Toledo's below-average defense (87th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Western Michigan puts up. Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) meets Western Michigan's middle-of-the-pack defense (60th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Toledo puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Western Michigan by 22 and Toledo by 24 about 80% of the time.
Toledo gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Western Michigan would be favoured by 1.1. The game is on CBSSN.
Result: Western Michigan 38, Toledo 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6 points and the total by 32.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, Action Network, ESPN · Updated Oct 30, 10:26 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Western Michigan / Toledo) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Toledo -2.5 | 48.5 | +116 / -142 |
| Opening line | Toledo -1.5 | 44.5 | +100 / -120 |
| DraftKings | Toledo -2.5 | 48.5 | +120 / -142 |
| FanDuel | Toledo -2.5 | 48.5 | +116 / -140 |
| BetRivers | Toledo -3 | 47.5 | +120 / -148 |
| BetMGM | Toledo -2.5 | 48.5 | +115 / -140 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 4:43 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Toledo win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Toledo -1 | 50.3 | 53% |
| Market consensus | Toledo -2.5 | 48.5 | 55% |
| Blended projection | Toledo -2.5 | 49.5 | 56% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Toledo win probability
- model 53% · market (no-vig) 55% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model Toledo -1 · market Toledo -2.5 · difference -1.5 pts (Toledo view)
- Total
- model 50.3 · market 48.5 · difference +1.8
Model margin is 1.5 pts more toward Western Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Western Michigan 24.7, Toledo 25.7 | Toledo 53%right winner | 6.0 | 32.7 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Western Michigan 38, Toledo 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Western Michigan vs Toledo: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Western Michigan | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.9#88 | 30.8#39 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.4#9 | 13.3#4 |
| Yards per play | 5.10#126 | 6.26#35 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.39#38 | 4.19#1 |
| Rushing yards per game | 221.9#14 | 185.5#45 |
| Net passing yards per game | 122.6#133 | 229.4#60 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 155.1#57 | 115.1#10 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.7#17 | 145.9#2 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.79#30 | 0.92#53 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#24 | 1.46#20 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#4 | 2.85#8 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.64#52 | 1.31#25 |
| Stat | Western Michigan | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01#96 | +0.11#31 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.07#27 | -0.18#3 |
| Success rate | 43.3%#56 | 45.2%#40 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.2%#20 | 34.6%#6 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7%#121 | 15.3%#12 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.0%#37 | 9.2%#9 |
| Havoc rate | 13.8%#35 | 17.1%#2 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.5%#25 | 9.7%#15 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.34#123 | 3.90#78 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.32#16 | 2.70#2 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#10 | own 32#24 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#34 | own 28#37 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.6#53 | 66.3#66 |
| Stat | Western Michigan | Toledo |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#86 | +0.06#49 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07#106 | +0.15#28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.02#79 | -0.07#24 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17#16 | -0.31#2 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.7%#23 | 44.2%#60 |
| Passing success rate | 36.2%#116 | 43.4%#44 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.7%#44 | 17.7%#59 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.6%#124 | 30.7%#71 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.7%#58 | 22.8%#5 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 41.3%#64 | 40.7%#76 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.3%#13 | 31.5%#6 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.9%#90 | 60.7%#72 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.6%#11 | 55.6%#40 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Western Michigan schedule · Toledo schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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