Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Toledo 30.2, Eastern Michigan 24.7 at Rynearson Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Toledo wins about 64% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.5 points and 54.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Toledo is 4-2, scoring 36.7 and allowing 25.2 points per game (+11.5 per game). Eastern Michigan is 4-3, scoring 22.6 and allowing 24.7 points per game (-2.1 per game).
Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (73rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.2 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Eastern Michigan's below-average defense (110th); that mismatch is where most of Toledo's projected points come from. Eastern Michigan's below-average offense (107th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.2 points against an average defense) meets Toledo's below-average defense (93rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Eastern Michigan puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Toledo by 28 and Eastern Michigan by 17 about 80% of the time.
Eastern Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Toledo is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Toledo 34, Eastern Michigan 14. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.5 points and the total by 6.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Toledo / Eastern Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Toledo -5.75 → Toledo -7.25 | 52.75 → 52.25 | -250 / +205 |
| DraftKings | Toledo -6.5 → Toledo -7.5 | 52.5 → 51.5 | -290 / +235 |
| Bovada | Toledo -5 → Toledo -7 | 53 | -210 / +175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Eastern Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Toledo -5.5 | 54.9 | 36% |
| Market consensus | Toledo -7 | 52.3 | 32% |
| Blended projection | Toledo -7 | 53.0 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Eastern Michigan win probability
- model 36% · market (no-vig) 32% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Toledo -5.5 · market Toledo -7.25 · difference +1.8 pts (Eastern Michigan view)
- Total
- model 54.9 · market 52.25 · difference +2.6
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Eastern Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Toledo 30.2, Eastern Michigan 24.7 | Toledo 64%right winner | 14.5 | 6.9 |
| New formula | Toledo 30.6, Eastern Michigan 24.7 | Toledo 65%right winner | 14.1 | 7.3 |
Final: Toledo 34, Eastern Michigan 14. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Toledo vs Eastern Michigan: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Toledo | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.7#30 | 22.6#107 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.2#82 | 24.7#78 |
| Yards per play | 6.69#34 | 5.08#126 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.93#26 | 6.03#101 |
| Rushing yards per game | 186.3#56 | 123.0#125 |
| Net passing yards per game | 270.0#28 | 211.7#84 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 156.0#69 | 143.1#52 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 186.5#43 | 229.1#102 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#21 | 1.00#84 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#77 | 0.86#62 |
| Sacks per game | 2.33#46 | 1.71#90 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50#8 | 1.14#30 |
| Stat | Toledo | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#54 | +0.02#103 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#40 | +0.09#101 |
| Success rate | 41.8%#88 | 41.1%#92 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.4%#33 | 42.3%#87 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#46 | 10.4%#116 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#38 | 13.2%#102 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#76 | 13.8%#81 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.0%#45 | 14.0%#95 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.69#101 | 4.33#52 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.81#71 | 3.62#55 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#26 | own 27#123 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#118 | own 30#84 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.2#45 | 65.9#66 |
| Stat | Toledo | Eastern Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#64 | +0.05#90 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#48 | -0.00#106 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#26 | +0.03#73 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#74 | +0.14#102 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.6%#83 | 44.3%#74 |
| Passing success rate | 42.5%#72 | 38.8%#102 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#56 | 20.0%#108 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.7%#103 | 31.0%#77 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.7%#31 | 31.7%#96 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.6%#54 | 45.0%#48 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.8%#63 | 42.2%#101 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.1%#52 | 60.9%#85 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 59.4%#79 | 74.2%#124 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Toledo schedule · Eastern Michigan schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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