Week 7 College Football Projections (2026)
Updated Oct 26, 2026
Week 7 of the 2026 college football season has 62 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Georgia Southern at Old Dominion (0.5-point margin), the highest projected total is Colorado State at Texas State (70.2 points) and the lowest is Northern Illinois at Wyoming (39.1). 10 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
62 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 43 of them (69%).
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Every FBS game
CSV download · Sports Pro- FinalCBSSN
Delaware28.1final 30
Middle Tennessee24.2final 33Final: Delaware 30, Middle Tennessee 33. We projected Delaware 28.1-24.2 (60%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Delaware by 3.9
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Middle Tennessee by 3. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Delaware 60% · total 52.2Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Florida International20.1final 24
Jacksonville State25.6final 27Final: Florida International 24, Jacksonville State 27. We projected Jacksonville State 25.6-20.1 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 5.5
Total 45.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Jacksonville State by 3. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Jacksonville State 64% · total 45.7Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Kennesaw State25.7final 21
Missouri State24.1final 24Final: Kennesaw State 21, Missouri State 24. We projected Kennesaw State 25.7-24.1 (54%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Kennesaw State by 1.6
Total 49.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri State by 3. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kennesaw State 54% · total 49.7Full preview → - FinalESPN
Western Kentucky27.1final 16
Sam Houston25.7final 3Final: Western Kentucky 16, Sam Houston 3. We projected Western Kentucky 27.1-25.7 (54%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Western Kentucky by 1.4
Total 52.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Kentucky by 13. 19 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Western Kentucky 54% · total 52.8Full preview → - FinalESPN
East Carolina29.3final 17
UAB20.3final 30Final: East Carolina 17, UAB 30. We projected East Carolina 29.3-20.3 (72%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
East Carolina by 9
Total 49.6
Book line
Not posted
Final UAB by 13. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
East Carolina 72% · total 49.6Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Georgia Southern24final 23
Old Dominion23.5final 15Final: Georgia Southern 23, Old Dominion 15. We projected Georgia Southern 24-23.5 (51%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Georgia Southern by 0.5
Total 47.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia Southern by 8. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia Southern 51% · total 47.4Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Colorado State29final 27
Texas State41.2final 66Final: Colorado State 27, Texas State 66. We projected Texas State 41.2-29 (79%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Texas State by 12.2
Total 70.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas State by 39. 93 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas State 79% · total 70.2Full preview → - FinalESPN
Memphis26.7final 17
Tulane22.5final 31Final: Memphis 17, Tulane 31. We projected Memphis 26.7-22.5 (61%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Memphis by 4.2
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Tulane by 14. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Memphis 61% · total 49.1Full preview → - FinalFox
Washington30.7final 38
Purdue25.7final 26Final: Washington 38, Purdue 26. We projected Washington 30.7-25.7 (63%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Washington by 5
Total 56.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Washington by 12. 64 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Washington 63% · total 56.3Full preview → - FinalESPN2
App State24.6final 35
Coastal Carolina25.1final 32Final: App State 35, Coastal Carolina 32. We projected Coastal Carolina 25.1-24.6 (51%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Coastal Carolina by 0.5
Total 49.7
Book line
Not posted
Final App State by 3. 67 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Coastal Carolina 51% · total 49.7Full preview → - FinalFox
Ohio State27.5final 19
Indiana24.1final 15Final: Ohio State 19, Indiana 15. We projected Ohio State 27.5-24.1 (59%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 3.4
Total 51.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Ohio State by 4. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ohio State 59% · total 51.5Full preview → - FinalABC
Florida20.5final 27
Texas34.4final 24Final: Florida 27, Texas 24. We projected Texas 34.4-20.5 (82%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Texas by 13.9
Total 54.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida by 3. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas 82% · total 54.9Full preview → - FinalESPN/Disney+
Mississippi State25.6final 0
LSU36.5final 31Final: Mississippi State 0, LSU 31. We projected LSU 36.5-25.6 (76%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
LSU by 10.9
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
Final LSU by 31. 31 points. No book line was saved for this game.
LSU 76% · total 62Full preview → - FinalCW/ESPN Unlmtd
Virginia21.8final 13
SMU29.5final 23Final: Virginia 13, SMU 23. We projected SMU 29.5-21.8 (69%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
SMU by 7.7
Total 51.3
Book line
Not posted
Final SMU by 10. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SMU 69% · total 51.3Full preview → - FinalPeacock
Northwestern29.3final 24
Michigan State19.8final 21Final: Northwestern 24, Michigan State 21. We projected Northwestern 29.3-19.8 (73%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 9.5
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
Final Northwestern by 3. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Northwestern 73% · total 49Full preview → - FinalTNT
Cincinnati32.4final 42
West Virginia30final 45Final: Cincinnati 42, West Virginia 45. We projected Cincinnati 32.4-30 (56%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Cincinnati by 2.4
Total 62.4
Book line
Not posted
Final West Virginia by 3. 87 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Cincinnati 56% · total 62.4Full preview → - FinalFS1
Kansas27.6final 24
Kansas State30.2final 35Final: Kansas 24, Kansas State 35. We projected Kansas State 30.2-27.6 (57%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Kansas State by 2.6
Total 57.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Kansas State by 11. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kansas State 57% · total 57.8Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Charleston Southern8.1final 0
Clemson35.3final 37Final: Charleston Southern 0, Clemson 37. We projected Clemson 35.3-8.1 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Clemson by 27.1
Total 43.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Clemson by 37. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Clemson 96% · total 43.4Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Pittsburgh31.2final 21
Boston College17final 27Final: Pittsburgh 21, Boston College 27. We projected Pittsburgh 31.2-17 (82%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 14.2
Total 48.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Boston College by 6. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Pittsburgh 82% · total 48.2Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Florida Atlantic26.3final 24
Army31.6final 56Final: Florida Atlantic 24, Army 56. We projected Army 31.6-26.3 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Army by 5.3
Total 57.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Army by 32. 80 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Army 64% · total 57.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Ball State20.4final 32
Bowling Green28.8final 31Final: Ball State 32, Bowling Green 31. We projected Bowling Green 28.8-20.4 (71%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Bowling Green by 8.4
Total 49.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Ball State by 1. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Bowling Green 71% · total 49.2Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Georgia State23.1final 22
James Madison36.1final 49Final: Georgia State 22, James Madison 49. We projected James Madison 36.1-23.1 (80%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 13
Total 59.2
Book line
Not posted
Final James Madison by 27. 71 points. No book line was saved for this game.
James Madison 80% · total 59.2Full preview → - FinalBTN
Rutgers29.2final 37
Maryland33.4final 30Final: Rutgers 37, Maryland 30. We projected Maryland 33.4-29.2 (61%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Maryland by 4.2
Total 62.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Rutgers by 7. 67 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Maryland 61% · total 62.5Full preview → - FinalSECN+
The Citadel5.2final 0
Texas A&M46.2final 41Final: The Citadel 0, Texas A&M 41. We projected Texas A&M 46.2-5.2 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Texas A&M by 41
Total 51.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas A&M by 41. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas A&M 100% · total 51.4Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Charlotte17.6final 38
Temple36.5final 31Final: Charlotte 38, Temple 31. We projected Temple 36.5-17.6 (89%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Temple by 18.9
Total 54.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Charlotte by 7. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Temple 89% · total 54.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Massachusetts22.5final 18
Buffalo27.3final 25Final: Massachusetts 18, Buffalo 25. We projected Buffalo 27.3-22.5 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Buffalo by 4.7
Total 49.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Buffalo by 7. 43 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Buffalo 62% · total 49.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Western Michigan27.2final 21
Central Michigan18.5final 14Final: Western Michigan 21, Central Michigan 14. We projected Western Michigan 27.2-18.5 (72%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Western Michigan by 8.7
Total 45.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Michigan by 7. 35 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Western Michigan 72% · total 45.6Full preview → - FinalESPN
Auburn12.6final 27
Georgia38.2final 24Final: Auburn 27, Georgia 24. We projected Georgia 38.2-12.6 (95%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Georgia by 25.6
Total 50.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Auburn by 3. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia 95% · total 50.8Full preview → - FinalABC
Alabama33.2final 10
Tennessee25.3final 26Final: Alabama 10, Tennessee 26. We projected Alabama 33.2-25.3 (70%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 7.9
Total 58.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Tennessee by 16. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Alabama 70% · total 58.5Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Missouri27.3final 3
Ole Miss29.1final 31Final: Missouri 3, Ole Miss 31. We projected Ole Miss 29.1-27.3 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Ole Miss by 1.8
Total 56.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Ole Miss by 28. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ole Miss 55% · total 56.4Full preview → - FinalFox
Arizona State18.1final 25
Texas Tech36.6final 53Final: Arizona State 25, Texas Tech 53. We projected Texas Tech 36.6-18.1 (89%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Texas Tech by 18.5
Total 54.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 28. 78 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas Tech 89% · total 54.7Full preview →
- FinalACC Network
Georgia Tech25.1final 24
Virginia Tech30.9final 34Final: Georgia Tech 24, Virginia Tech 34. We projected Virginia Tech 30.9-25.1 (65%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Virginia Tech by 5.8
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
Final Virginia Tech by 10. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Virginia Tech 65% · total 56Full preview → - FinalESPN2
North Carolina22.3final 24
Duke26.6final 20Final: North Carolina 24, Duke 20. We projected Duke 26.6-22.3 (61%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Duke by 4.2
Total 48.9
Book line
Not posted
Final North Carolina by 4. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Duke 61% · total 48.9Full preview → - FinalCBS
Penn State21.7final 18
Michigan25final 21Final: Penn State 18, Michigan 21. We projected Michigan 25-21.7 (59%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Michigan by 3.3
Total 46.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Michigan by 3. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Michigan 59% · total 46.7Full preview → - FinalCW
Northern Illinois17.7final 23
Wyoming21.4final 41Final: Northern Illinois 23, Wyoming 41. We projected Wyoming 21.4-17.7 (60%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Wyoming by 3.7
Total 39.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Wyoming by 18. 64 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wyoming 60% · total 39.1Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
UNLV24.2final 31
Air Force25.4final 41Final: UNLV 31, Air Force 41. We projected Air Force 25.4-24.2 (53%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Air Force by 1.2
Total 49.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Air Force by 10. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Air Force 53% · total 49.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Toledo30.2final 34
Eastern Michigan24.7final 14Final: Toledo 34, Eastern Michigan 14. We projected Toledo 30.2-24.7 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 5.5
Total 54.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Toledo by 20. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Toledo 64% · total 54.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Akron20final 14
Miami (OH)32.5final 34Final: Akron 14, Miami (OH) 34. We projected Miami (OH) 32.5-20 (79%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Miami (OH) by 12.5
Total 52.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Miami (OH) by 20. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Miami (OH) 79% · total 52.4Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Tulsa25.1final 38
Rice23.6final 17Final: Tulsa 38, Rice 17. We projected Tulsa 25.1-23.6 (54%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Tulsa by 1.5
Total 48.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Tulsa by 21. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Tulsa 54% · total 48.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Troy24.5final 6
Louisiana28.4final 33Final: Troy 6, Louisiana 33. We projected Louisiana 28.4-24.5 (60%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Louisiana by 3.9
Total 52.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisiana by 27. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Louisiana 60% · total 52.8Full preview → - FinalUSA Net
Washington State18.7final 30
Oregon State33final 48Final: Washington State 30, Oregon State 48. We projected Oregon State 33-18.7 (83%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 14.3
Total 51.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Oregon State by 18. 78 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oregon State 83% · total 51.6Full preview → - FinalESPN/Disney+
Florida State16.5final 35
Miami40.6final 43Final: Florida State 35, Miami 43. We projected Miami 40.6-16.5 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Miami by 24.1
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Miami by 8. 78 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Miami 94% · total 57Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Arkansas22.4final 31
Vanderbilt29.5final 21Final: Arkansas 31, Vanderbilt 21. We projected Vanderbilt 29.5-22.4 (68%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Vanderbilt by 7.1
Total 51.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Arkansas by 10. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Vanderbilt 68% · total 51.9Full preview → - FinalFS1
TCU23.7final 17
Baylor26final 6Final: TCU 17, Baylor 6. We projected Baylor 26-23.7 (56%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Baylor by 2.3
Total 49.7
Book line
Not posted
Final TCU by 11. 23 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Baylor 56% · total 49.7Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Kent State14.9final 2
South Florida35.9final 29Final: Kent State 2, South Florida 29. We projected South Florida 35.9-14.9 (92%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 21
Total 50.7
Book line
Not posted
Final South Florida by 27. 31 points. No book line was saved for this game.
South Florida 92% · total 50.7Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Nevada14.1final 17
North Dakota State32.2final 31Final: Nevada 17, North Dakota State 31. We projected North Dakota State 32.2-14.1 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 18.1
Total 46.2
Book line
Not posted
Final North Dakota State by 14. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
North Dakota State 88% · total 46.2Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Arkansas State31.3final 23
Southern Miss28.2final 13Final: Arkansas State 23, Southern Miss 13. We projected Arkansas State 31.3-28.2 (58%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Arkansas State by 3.1
Total 59.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Arkansas State by 10. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Arkansas State 58% · total 59.4Full preview → - FinalABC
Notre Dame32.2final 24
BYU20.3final 28Final: Notre Dame 24, BYU 28. We projected Notre Dame 32.2-20.3 (78%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 11.9
Total 52.4
Book line
Not posted
Final BYU by 4. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Notre Dame 78% · total 52.4Full preview → - FinalNBC
Wisconsin20.3final 7
UCLA26.8final 17Final: Wisconsin 7, UCLA 17. We projected UCLA 26.8-20.3 (67%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
UCLA by 6.5
Total 47.1
Book line
Not posted
Final UCLA by 10. 24 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UCLA 67% · total 47.1Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Kentucky18.7final 21
Oklahoma28.6final 13Final: Kentucky 21, Oklahoma 13. We projected Oklahoma 28.6-18.7 (74%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Oklahoma by 9.9
Total 47.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Kentucky by 8. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oklahoma 74% · total 47.2Full preview → - FinalFox
Oklahoma State21final 32
Houston35.9final 35Final: Oklahoma State 32, Houston 35. We projected Houston 35.9-21 (84%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Houston by 14.9
Total 56.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Houston by 3. 67 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Houston 84% · total 56.9Full preview → - FinalACCNX
Elon18.8final 7
Stanford30.3final 34Final: Elon 7, Stanford 34. We projected Stanford 30.3-18.8 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Stanford by 11.5
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Stanford by 27. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Stanford 77% · total 49.1Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Louisville33.2final 34
Syracuse27.1final 26Final: Louisville 34, Syracuse 26. We projected Louisville 33.2-27.1 (66%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Louisville by 6.1
Total 60.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisville by 8. 60 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Louisville 66% · total 60.2Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Navy23.4final 34
UTSA32.3final 38Final: Navy 34, UTSA 38. We projected UTSA 32.3-23.4 (72%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 8.9
Total 55.6
Book line
Not posted
Final UTSA by 4. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UTSA 72% · total 55.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Louisiana Tech36.5final 24
UL Monroe22.3final 0Final: Louisiana Tech 24, UL Monroe 0. We projected Louisiana Tech 36.5-22.3 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Louisiana Tech by 14.2
Total 58.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisiana Tech by 24. 24 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Louisiana Tech 82% · total 58.8Full preview → - FinalMW+
San José State30final 24
UTEP21.8final 11Final: San José State 24, UTEP 11. We projected San José State 30-21.8 (70%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
San José State by 8.2
Total 51.7
Book line
Not posted
Final San José State by 13. 35 points. No book line was saved for this game.
San José State 70% · total 51.7Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Ohio32.2final 48
Sacramento State18.6final 7Final: Ohio 48, Sacramento State 7. We projected Ohio 32.2-18.6 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 13.6
Total 50.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Ohio by 41. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ohio 81% · total 50.8Full preview → - FinalESPN
Utah34.3final 27
Colorado16.5final 24Final: Utah 27, Colorado 24. We projected Utah 34.3-16.5 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Utah by 17.8
Total 50.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Utah by 3. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Utah 88% · total 50.7Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Wake Forest31.4final 41
California21final 7Final: Wake Forest 41, California 7. We projected Wake Forest 31.4-21 (75%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Wake Forest by 10.4
Total 52.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Wake Forest by 34. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wake Forest 75% · total 52.3Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Fresno State28.9final 23
San Diego State21.3final 26Final: Fresno State 23, San Diego State 26. We projected Fresno State 28.9-21.3 (69%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Fresno State by 7.6
Total 50.1
Book line
Not posted
Final San Diego State by 3. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Fresno State 69% · total 50.1Full preview → - FinalFS1
New Mexico35.6final 21
Hawai'i16.4final 10Final: New Mexico 21, Hawai'i 10. We projected New Mexico 35.6-16.4 (90%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
New Mexico by 19.2
Total 51.9
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico by 11. 31 points. No book line was saved for this game.
New Mexico 90% · total 51.9Full preview → - FinalFox
Nebraska22.3final 14
Oregon34.2final 17Final: Nebraska 14, Oregon 17. We projected Oregon 34.2-22.3 (78%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 11.9
Total 56.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Oregon by 3. 31 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oregon 78% · total 56.4Full preview →
How these numbers are made
Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.
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