Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wake Forest 31.4, California 21 at California Memorial Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Wake Forest wins about 75% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.4 points and 52.3 combined points.
Wake Forest (No. 21) is 5-1, scoring 36.8 and allowing 21.5 points per game (+15.3 per game). California is 3-3, scoring 26.7 and allowing 25.5 points per game (+1.2 per game).
Wake Forest's strong offense (30th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over California's below-average defense (86th); that mismatch is where most of Wake Forest's projected points come from. Expect California to find it hard going: Wake Forest's strong defense (23rd) outranks California's below-average offense (90th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.1 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wake Forest by 33 and California by 12 about 80% of the time.
California gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Wake Forest is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Wake Forest 41, California 7. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 23.6 points and the total by 4.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wake Forest / California) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wake Forest -8.75 → Wake Forest -10 | 53.5 → 54 | -372.5 / +292.5 |
| DraftKings | Wake Forest -8.5 → Wake Forest -10 | 53.5 → 54.5 | -395 / +310 |
| Bovada | Wake Forest -9 → Wake Forest -10 | 53.5 | -350 / +275 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | California win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wake Forest -10.5 | 52.3 | 25% |
| Market consensus | Wake Forest -10 | 54.0 | 24% |
| Blended projection | Wake Forest -10 | 54.4 | 25% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- California win probability
- model 25% · market (no-vig) 24% · difference +0 pts
- Margin
- model Wake Forest -10.4 · market Wake Forest -10 · difference -0.4 pts (California view)
- Total
- model 52.3 · market 54 · difference -1.7
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wake Forest 31.4, California 21.0 | Wake Forest 75%right winner | 23.6 | 4.3 |
| New formula | Wake Forest 32.8, California 19.3 | Wake Forest 81%right winner | 20.5 | 4.1 |
Final: Wake Forest 41, California 7. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wake Forest vs California: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Wake Forest | California |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.8#29 | 26.7#86 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.5#51 | 25.5#86 |
| Yards per play | 6.74#29 | 5.67#96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.75#15 | 5.97#98 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.2#84 | 99.2#138 |
| Net passing yards per game | 281.2#22 | 304.2#11 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 118.3#27 | 184.2#107 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 212.8#81 | 200.8#70 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#17 | 1.17#97 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#129 | 1.33#23 |
| Sacks per game | 2.83#18 | 2.17#55 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67#67 | 1.67#68 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | California |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#12 | +0.01#109 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02#56 | +0.03#65 |
| Success rate | 48.3%#27 | 38.6%#120 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.4%#88 | 37.3%#30 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.7%#14 | 10.5%#113 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.9%#11 | 13.5%#104 |
| Havoc rate | 14.1%#70 | 13.0%#94 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.0%#6 | 15.3%#116 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.16#9 | 3.12#125 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66#58 | 3.59#51 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#30 | own 28#102 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#40 | own 33#131 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0#74 | 71.2#18 |
| Stat | Wake Forest | California |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#50 | -0.07#124 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.36#11 | +0.06#87 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09#18 | +0.18#128 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.10#94 | -0.10#24 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.5%#34 | 37.6%#117 |
| Passing success rate | 48.2%#31 | 39.2%#99 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.4%#74 | 23.3%#133 |
| Passing-down success rate | 44.3%#4 | 26.7%#111 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4%#68 | 25.4%#24 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.9%#29 | 38.6%#90 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.0%#107 | 39.3%#86 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.0%#35 | 55.0%#104 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.4%#45 | 57.1%#64 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wake Forest schedule · California schedule · all Week 7 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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