2026 schedule

California Golden Bears

3-5SOS #48

2026 season so far

California is 3-5 against the 48th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 31.6 points per game (-8.2 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings California ranks 103rd of 139 FBS teams overall — 100th on offense and 109th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at NC State in Week 9. We project California 25, NC State 36 — California wins 22% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
UCLA Bruins
1-0 · SOS #42
Loss 24-45
Week 1
Our number· pregame
California by 3.9
Total 54.5
DraftKings
UCLA -2.5
Total 53.5
Final UCLA by 21. UCLA beat the spread. 69 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -2.5 (open California -2.5) · O/U 53.5 · ML -136 / +115 · California 45% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +15 pct pts (California view)
ESPN California Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
at
Syracuse Orange
1-1 · SOS #77
Win 21-18
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Syracuse by 1.9
Total 54.7
DraftKings
SYR -4
Total 56.5
Final California by 3. California beat the spread. 39 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Syracuse -4 (open Syracuse -0.75) · O/U 56.75 (open 54.25) · ML +152 / -181.5 · Syracuse 62% no-vig · model vs market -2.1 pts, -7 pct pts (Syracuse view)
ACC Network JMA Wireless Dome
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game, our total below the book: hit · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
vs
Wagner Seahawks
1-3 · SOS #64
Win 49-7
Week 3
Our number· pregame
California by 40.6
Total 55.4
DraftKings
CAL -58.5
Total 65.5
Final California by 42. Wagner beat the spread. 56 points — under the 65.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: California -58 · O/U 65.25 · model vs market -17.4 pts (California view)
ACC Network California Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
vs
Clemson Tigers
3-1 · SOS #24
Loss 10-24
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Clemson by 3
Total 51.6
DraftKings
CLEM -2.5
Total 52.5
Final Clemson by 14. Clemson beat the spread. 34 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Clemson -2.5 (open Pick'em) · O/U 52.25 (open 49) · ML -21 / 0 · California 48% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -6 pct pts (California view)
ESPN California Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open Well-protected short dogShort dog · YPP + protection · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, better in yards per play and much better at avoiding sacks: Record 109 hits, 80 misses (58% hit rate) over 189 graded games · 2026: 9-3Short dog · YPP + protection: missed
A. Mohammed RB · Low rec yds 32 (avg 46) · 74% · 30 ✓C. Hendricks WR · Low catches 5.5 (avg 6.7) · 68% · 4 ✓A. Mohammed RB · TD threat 66% · 0 ✗
at
UNLV Rebels
3-2 · SOS #82
Loss 31-39
Week 5
Our number· pregame
UNLV by 5.2
Total 49.6
DraftKings
UNLV -1.5
Total 51.5
Final UNLV by 8. UNLV beat the spread. 70 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -1.75 · O/U 52.25 (open 53) · ML 0 / -120 · UNLV 52% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +11 pct pts (UNLV view)
Indoors (dome).
CBSSN Allegiant Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
T. Reddicks WR · Low rec yds 53 (avg 79) · 74% · 36 ✓A. Mohammed RB · Low rec yds 29 (avg 42) · 74% · did not playC. Hendricks WR · Low catches 5.1 (avg 6) · 66% · 8 ✗
vs
Virginia Tech Hokies
4-2 · SOS #111
Win 25-20
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Virginia Tech by 6.7
Total 56.1
DraftKings
VT -11.5
Total 51.5
Final California by 5. California beat the spread. 45 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia Tech -10.75 (open Virginia Tech -9.5) · O/U 52.25 (open 53.25) · ML -390 / +302.5 · California 24% no-vig · model vs market +4.1 pts, +9 pct pts (California view)
Game-time weather: 64°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (D3169)
ACC Network California Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
J. Overton Jr. RB · TD threat 66% · 0 ✗L. Reynolds TE · Low catches 6.2 (avg 7.4) · 65% · 4 ✓
vs
#21 Wake Forest Demon Deacons
6-1 · SOS #47
Loss 7-41
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Wake Forest by 10.4
Total 52.4
DraftKings
WAKE -10
Total 54.5
Final Wake Forest by 34. Wake Forest beat the spread. 48 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -10 (open Wake Forest -8.75) · O/U 54 (open 53.5) · ML -372.5 / +292.5 · California 24% no-vig · model vs market -0.4 pts, +0 pct pts (California view)
Game-time weather: 74°F, Wind 3 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (LBNL1)
ESPN2 California Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Steamed red-zone fav over2026 combo · Held up Over: Spread moved 1.5+ toward favorite + Favorite red-zone TD rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third: Record 28 hits, 7 misses (80% hit rate) over 35 graded gamesSpread moved 1.5+ toward favorite + Favorite red-zone TD rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third: missed (n=35; wk 5–7 12-1) · Spread moved 1.5+ toward favorite + Favorite red-zone TD rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams' EPA per play combined: top third
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Emory RB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 25) · 75% · 56 ✗J. Foley WR · Low rec yds 77 (avg 109) · 75% · 45 ✓J. Brousseau QB · High pass yds 196 (avg 155) · 69% · 81 ✗
at
#23 SMU Mustangs
6-1 · SOS #70
Loss 20-59
Week 8
Our number· pregame
SMU by 16.6
Total 53
DraftKings
SMU -18.5
Total 55.5
Final SMU by 39. SMU beat the spread. 79 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -18.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +725 / -1100 · SMU 88% no-vig · model vs market -1.9 pts, -2 pct pts (SMU view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAL)
CW Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank 3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
K. Raphael RB · TD threat 69% · 3 ✓
at
NC State Wolfpack
3-4 · SOS #67
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 25-36 · 22%
Our number
NC State by 11
Total 61
DraftKings
NCSU -7
Total 56.5
We're 4 points higher on NC State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: NC State -7 · O/U 56.5 · ML +221 / -272.5 · NC State 70% no-vig · model vs market +4.0 pts, +8 pct pts (NC State view)
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 64°F, Wind 8 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ACC Network Carter-Finley Stadium
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)Slow-pace scoring dog vs reeling favDog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost · 2014–25 Underdog expected to score 24+, favorite lost its last game, both teams play slow: Record 81 hits, 70 misses (54% hit rate) over 151 graded games · 2026: 13-13
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
C. Bailey QB · High pass yds 287 (avg 252) · 55%
at
Virginia Cavaliers
4-4 · SOS #54
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 19-31 · 21%
Our number
Virginia by 12
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Scott Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · A. Emory RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 29) · 75%B. Pribula QB · High pass yds 187 (avg 171) · 57%
vs
Stanford Cardinal
4-4 · SOS #14
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 30-26 · 60%
Our number
California by 4
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
California Memorial Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
J. Sagapolutele QB · High pass yds 228 (avg 222) · 52%
vs
Pittsburgh Panthers
5-3 · SOS #53
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 20-36 · 14%
Our number
Pittsburgh by 16
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
California Memorial Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Emory RB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 29) · 75%

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California Golden Bears stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-8.7

102nd in FBS

Adj. offense

23.0

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

31.7

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	23.4	102 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	31.6	120 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.31	120 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.40	120 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	92.4	138 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	281.5	17 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	197.8	119 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	216.1	87 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.88	71 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.00	51 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.75	90 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.75	63 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	-0.02	121 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.13	115 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	37.8%	125 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	41.1%	71 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	10.1%	128 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	16.0%	135 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	11.8%	117 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	15.9%	124 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.17	128 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.57	121 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 27	122 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 33	132 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	70.4	19 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.07	125 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.01	100 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.20	133 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.05	73 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	37.6%	122 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	37.9%	109 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	23.0%	136 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	27.5%	112 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	28.0%	49 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	37.5%	96 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	40.2%	87 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	54.2%	111 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	66.7%	104 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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