Matchup analysis
Our model projects California 30, Stanford 26 at California Memorial Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: California wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4 points and 55.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Stanford is 4-4 against the 14th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.9 and allowing 35.5 points per game (-15.6 per game). California is 3-5 against the 48th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 31.6 points per game (-8.2 per game).
Stanford's below-average offense (105th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 21.5 points against an average defense) meets California's below-average defense (109th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Stanford puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: California's below-average offense (100th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23 points against an average defense) against Stanford's below-average defense (115th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Stanford by 19 and California by 27 about 80% of the time.
California gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour California by about 1.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Stanford vs California: stat comparison
| Stat | Stanford | California |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.9#124 | 23.4#102 |
| Points allowed per game | 35.5#132 | 31.6#120 |
| Yards per play | 5.63#103 | 5.31#120 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.52#125 | 6.40#120 |
| Rushing yards per game | 127.0#122 | 92.4#138 |
| Net passing yards per game | 237.3#55 | 281.5#17 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 197.1#117 | 197.8#119 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.8#120 | 216.1#87 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63#41 | 0.88#71 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.63#101 | 1.00#51 |
| Sacks per game | 0.88#134 | 1.75#90 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63#57 | 1.75#63 |
| Stat | Stanford | California |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#82 | -0.02#121 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.21#130 | +0.13#115 |
| Success rate | 40.0%#111 | 37.8%#125 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.0%#130 | 41.1%#71 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.9%#90 | 10.1%#128 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.1%#130 | 16.0%#135 |
| Havoc rate | 11.1%#127 | 11.8%#117 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#31 | 15.9%#124 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.81#92 | 3.17#128 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.50#138 | 4.57#121 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#136 | own 27#122 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#96 | own 33#132 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#79 | 70.4#19 |
| Stat | Stanford | California |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#119 | -0.07#125 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#52 | +0.01#100 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.18#132 | +0.20#133 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.24#123 | +0.05#73 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.2%#105 | 37.6%#122 |
| Passing success rate | 39.7%#93 | 37.9%#109 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.7%#94 | 23.0%#136 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8%#126 | 27.5%#112 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.4%#131 | 28.0%#49 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.2%#106 | 37.5%#96 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 49.0%#130 | 40.2%#87 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.0%#80 | 54.2%#111 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 83.9%#137 | 66.7%#104 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Stanford schedule · California schedule · all Week 12 projections
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