2026 schedule

Stanford Cardinal

4-4SOS #14

2026 season so far

Stanford is 4-4 against the 14th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.9 and allowing 35.5 points per game (-15.6 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Stanford ranks 111th of 139 FBS teams overall — 105th on offense and 115th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at Louisville in Week 9. We project Stanford 18, Louisville 40 — Stanford wins 7% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors
0-1 · SOS #100
Win 37-27
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Stanford by 1.9
Total 52.5
DraftKings
STAN -4.5
Total 48.5
Final Stanford by 10. Stanford beat the spread. 64 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stanford -4.75 (open Stanford -3) · O/U 48.5 (open 50.5) · ML +157.5 / -187.5 · Stanford 63% no-vig · model vs market -2.9 pts, -8 pct pts (Stanford view)
ACC Network Stanford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed
vs
#7 Miami Hurricanes
1-0 · SOS #72
Loss 6-45
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Miami by 13.2
Total 47
DraftKings
MIA -24.5
Total 46.5
Final Miami by 39. Miami beat the spread. 51 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -24.5 (open Miami -21.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 48.5) · ML -3750 / +1350 · Stanford 7% no-vig · model vs market +11.3 pts, +13 pct pts (Stanford view)
ESPN Stanford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
at
Duke Blue Devils
3-0 · SOS #90
Loss 7-35
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Duke by 11.8
Total 48.2
DraftKings
DUKE -9.5
Total 51.5
Final Duke by 28. Duke beat the spread. 42 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -9.75 · O/U 51.5 (open 50.75) · ML +290 / -372.5 · Duke 75% no-vig · model vs market +2.1 pts, +3 pct pts (Duke view)
CW Wallace Wade Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
vs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
1-3 · SOS #43
Win 34-27
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Georgia Tech by 5.7
Total 51.3
DraftKings
GT -3
Total 48.5
Final Stanford by 7. Stanford beat the spread. 61 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia Tech -3 (open Georgia Tech -4) · O/U 48.75 (open 48.25) · ML -165 / +140 · Stanford 40% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -5 pct pts (Stanford view)
Game-time weather: 61°F, Wind 2 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (AW020)
ESPN Stanford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
J. Haynes RB · TD threat 75% · 0 ✗J. Haynes RB · Low rush yds 80 (avg 95) · 69% · 107 ✗J. Allen WR · Low catches 3.9 (avg 4.7) · 67% · 4 ✓
at
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
4-1 · SOS #47
Loss 3-57
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Wake Forest by 12.2
Total 51.8
DraftKings
WAKE -14.5
Total 54.5
Final Wake Forest by 54. Wake Forest beat the spread. 60 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wake Forest -14.5 (open Wake Forest -12.75) · O/U 54.25 (open 54.5) · ML +430 / -600 · Wake Forest 82% no-vig · model vs market -2.3 pts, -3 pct pts (Wake Forest view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 68°F, Wind 9 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KINT)
ACC Network Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
C. High WR · Low rec yds 62 (avg 85) · 73% · 10 ✓C. Hernandez WR · Low catches 6.4 (avg 7.5) · 65% · 7 ✓
at
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6-0 · SOS #49
Loss 7-58
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 42.3
Total 55.3
DraftKings
ND -40.5
Total 55.5
Final Notre Dame by 51. Notre Dame beat the spread. 65 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Notre Dame -40 (open Notre Dame -38.25) · O/U 55.25 (open 54) · model vs market +2.3 pts (Notre Dame view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 9 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSBN)
NBC Notre Dame Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14 High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. Ford RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 60) · 78% · 48 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · S. Irvin RB · Low rush yds 25 (avg 29) · 78% · 2 ✓C. High WR · Low rec yds 40 (avg 67) · 79% · 64 ✓
vs
Elon Phoenix
4-4 · SOS #151
Win 34-7
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Stanford by 11.5
Total 49.1
DraftKings
STAN -33.5
Total 55.5
Final Stanford by 27. Elon beat the spread. 41 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stanford -33.5 (open Stanford -35.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 56.5) · model vs market -22.0 pts (Stanford view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind 7 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPAO)
ACCNX Stanford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14 High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
vs
NC State Wolfpack
3-4 · SOS #67
Win 31-28
Week 8
Our number· pregame
NC State by 10.7
Total 59.3
DraftKings
NCSU -6.5
Total 55.5
Final Stanford by 3. Stanford beat the spread. 59 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: NC State -6.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML -256.5 / +210 · Stanford 31% no-vig · model vs market -4.2 pts, -7 pct pts (Stanford view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 7 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPAO)
ESPN Stanford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 18 of 26 since week 3 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 1 of 5
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
C. Bailey QB · High pass yds 281 (avg 251) · 55% · 256 ✓
at
Louisville Cardinals
4-3 · SOS #17
Sat, Oct 31, 7:15 PM
Week 9
Proj 18-40 · 7%
Our number
Louisville by 22
Total 58
DraftKings
LOU -22.5
Total 61.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisville -22.5 · O/U 61.5 · ML +1050 / -2300 · Louisville 92% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, +2 pct pts (Louisville view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 3 mph SE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 8:35 AM EDT
ACC Network L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded games (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
at
Virginia Tech Hokies
6-2 · SOS #111
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 18-36 · 12%
Our number
Virginia Tech by 18
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Lane Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. Ford RB · Low rush yds 65 (avg 85) · 78%
at
California Golden Bears
3-5 · SOS #48
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 26-30 · 40%
Our number
California by 4
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
California Memorial Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
J. Sagapolutele QB · High pass yds 228 (avg 222) · 52%
vs
#19 SMU Mustangs
6-1 · SOS #70
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 19-37 · 12%
Our number
SMU by 18
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Stanford Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. Ford RB · Low rush yds 82 (avg 85) · 78%K. Raphael RB · TD threat 78%

Times shown in your local time

Stanford Cardinal stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-10.6

110th in FBS

Adj. offense

21.5

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

32.1

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	19.9	124 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	35.5	132 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.63	103 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.52	125 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	127.0	122 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	237.3	55 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	197.1	117 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	248.8	120 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.63	41 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.63	101 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	0.88	134 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.63	57 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.06	82 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.21	130 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	40.0%	111 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	47.0%	130 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	11.9%	90 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	15.1%	130 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	11.1%	127 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	11.6%	31 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.81	92 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	5.50	138 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 25	136 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 30	96 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	64.8	79 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.04	119 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.13	52 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.18	132 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.24	123 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	40.2%	105 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	39.7%	93 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	18.7%	94 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	24.8%	126 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	39.4%	131 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	36.2%	106 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	49.0%	130 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	60.0%	80 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	83.9%	137 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

Free weekly projections email

One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.