Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Miami 30.1, Stanford 16.9 at Stanford Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Miami wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.2 points and 46.9 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Miami has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Stanford is 1-0, scoring 37 and allowing 27 points per game (+10 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Miami's elite offense (1st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43 points against an average defense) against Stanford's middle-of-the-pack defense (75th). Miami's elite defense (4th) should limit Stanford's middle-of-the-pack offense (80th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.6 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami by 36 and Stanford by 9 about 80% of the time.
Stanford gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Miami is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Miami 45, Stanford 6. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 25.8 points and the total by 4.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Miami / Stanford) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Miami -21.5 → Miami -24.5 | 48.5 → 46.5 | -3750 / +1350 |
| Bovada | Miami -21.5 → Miami -24.5 | 48.5 → 46.5 | -3500 / +1100 |
| DraftKings | Miami -21.5 → Miami -24.5 | 46.5 | -4000 / +1600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Stanford win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Miami -13 | 46.9 | 19% |
| Market consensus | Miami -24.5 | 46.5 | 7% |
| Blended projection | Miami -23 | 47.6 | 6% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Stanford win probability
- model 19% · market (no-vig) 7% · difference +13 pts
- Margin
- model Miami -13.2 · market Miami -24.5 · difference +11.3 pts (Stanford view)
- Total
- model 46.9 · market 46.5 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 11.3 pts more toward Stanford than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Miami 30.1, Stanford 16.9 | Miami 81%right winner | 25.8 | 4.1 |
| New formula | Miami 36.4, Stanford 17.1 | Miami 87%right winner | 19.7 | 2.4 |
Final: Miami 45, Stanford 6. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Miami vs Stanford: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Miami | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.9#35 | 18.8#123 |
| Points allowed per game | 14.8#5 | 29.2#97 |
| Yards per play | 6.16#42 | 5.04#127 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.10#18 | 6.12#103 |
| Rushing yards per game | 157.3#80 | 113.3#130 |
| Net passing yards per game | 248.1#48 | 213.9#86 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 113.6#9 | 135.3#27 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 206.6#49 | 282.1#134 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.94#59 | 1.17#96 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.44#22 | 0.58#128 |
| Sacks per game | 3.19#3 | 1.83#87 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.19#17 | 3.58#133 |
| Stat | Miami | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#29 | -0.11#127 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.10#15 | +0.06#99 |
| Success rate | 46.9%#19 | 36.5%#126 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.9%#17 | 42.7%#84 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#73 | 9.2%#133 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1%#25 | 13.0%#90 |
| Havoc rate | 16.4%#6 | 9.4%#131 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6%#27 | 15.3%#124 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.41#23 | 3.57#113 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.44#26 | 3.69#48 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#31 | own 25#135 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#1 | own 32#119 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.8#72 | 64.9#88 |
| Stat | Miami | Stanford |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#80 | -0.04#101 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21#15 | -0.17#129 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00#64 | -0.06#32 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.17#14 | +0.14#115 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.3%#49 | 37.1%#122 |
| Passing success rate | 48.5%#11 | 35.9%#118 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.3%#15 | 18.1%#65 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.7%#29 | 24.0%#128 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.8%#40 | 33.6%#117 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.2%#29 | 39.8%#84 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.9%#11 | 43.8%#105 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.1%#10 | 44.4%#132 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.3%#30 | 49.1%#15 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Miami schedule · Stanford schedule · all Week 1 projections
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