2026 schedule
Miami Hurricanes
2026 season so far
Miami (No. 1) is 7-0 against the 72nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 49 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+33.7 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Miami ranks 2nd of 139 FBS teams overall — 1st on offense and 4th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: at North Carolina in Week 9. We project Miami 39, North Carolina 15 — Miami wins 94% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
Stanford Cardinal
1-1 · SOS #14
Win 45-6
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Miami by 13.2
Total 47
DraftKings
MIA -24.5
Total 46.5
Final Miami by 39. Miami beat the spread. 51 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Miami -24.5 (open Miami -21.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 48.5) · ML -3750 / +1350 · Stanford 7% no-vig · model vs market +11.3 pts, +13 pct pts (Stanford view)
ESPN Stanford Stadium - vs
Florida A&M Rattlers
1-2 · SOS #21
Win 77-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Miami by 48.2
Total 48.2
DraftKings
MIA -59.5
Total 66.5
Final Miami by 70. Miami beat the spread. 84 points — over the 66.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Miami -59.5 (open Miami -56) · O/U 65.75 (open 62.5) · model vs market -11.3 pts (Miami view)
ACC Network Hard Rock Stadium - at
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
2-1 · SOS #47
Win 33-20
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Miami by 6.1
Total 51.9
DraftKings
MIA -20.5
Total 55.5
Final Miami by 13. Wake Forest beat the spread. 53 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Miami -20.25 · O/U 55.75 (open 52.75) · ML -1750 / +900 · Wake Forest 10% no-vig · model vs market +14.2 pts, +25 pct pts (Wake Forest view)
ESPN Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium - vs
Central Michigan Chippewas
2-2 · SOS #71
Win 52-3
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Miami by 43.3
Total 51.3
DraftKings
MIA -41.5
Total 52.5
Final Miami by 49. Miami beat the spread. 55 points — over the 52.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Miami -41.25 (open Miami -40.75) · O/U 52.25 (open 53.75) · model vs market +2.0 pts (Miami view)
CW Hard Rock Stadium - at
Clemson Tigers
3-2 · SOS #24
Win 41-13
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Miami by 17.9
Total 52.1
DraftKings
MIA -14
Total 49.5
Final Miami by 28. Miami beat the spread. 54 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -14.75 (open Miami -12) · O/U 48.5 (open 52.25) · ML -825 / +550 · Clemson 15% no-vig · model vs market -3.1 pts, -3 pct pts (Clemson view)
ABC Memorial Stadium (Clemson, SC) - vs
Florida State Seminoles
3-4 · SOS #13
Win 43-35
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Miami by 24.1
Total 57.1
DraftKings
MIA -20.5
Total 57.5
Final Miami by 8. Florida State beat the spread. 78 points — over the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -20.25 (open Miami -18.75) · O/U 57 (open 55) · ML +850 / -1600 · Miami 90% no-vig · model vs market +3.9 pts, +4 pct pts (Miami view)
ESPN/Disney+ Hard Rock Stadium - vs
Pittsburgh Panthers
5-3 · SOS #53
Win 52-23
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Miami by 20.9
Total 56.9
DraftKings
MIA -20.5
Total 50.5
Final Miami by 29. Miami beat the spread. 75 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Miami -20.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML +1000 / -2000 · Miami 92% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, -0 pct pts (Miami view)
ESPNEWS/Disney+ Hard Rock Stadium - at
North Carolina Tar Heels
4-3 · SOS #10
Sat, Oct 31, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 39-15 · 94%
Our number
Miami by 24
Total 54
DraftKings
MIA -14.5
Total 52.5
We're 9.5 points higher on Miami than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Miami -14.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -675 / +481 · North Carolina 16% no-vig · model vs market -9.5 pts, -11 pct pts (North Carolina view)
ABC Kenan Stadium - at
#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6-1 · SOS #49
Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 29-31 · 44%
Our number
Notre Dame by 2
Total 60
DraftKings
ND -6.5
Total 54.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Miami than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -6.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +195 / -238 · Notre Dame 68% no-vig · model vs market -4.5 pts, -11 pct pts (Notre Dame view)
NBC Notre Dame Stadium - vs
Duke Blue Devils
5-2 · SOS #90
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 40-16 · 94%
Our number
Miami by 24
Total 56
DraftKings
MIA -21
Total 55.5
We're 3 points higher on Miami than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -21 · O/U 55.5 · ML +1000 / -1800 · Miami 91% no-vig · model vs market +3.0 pts, +3 pct pts (Miami view)
Hard Rock Stadium - vs
Virginia Tech Hokies
6-2 · SOS #111
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 42-16 · 95%
Our number
Miami by 26
Total 58
DraftKings
MIA -16.5
Total 56.5
We're 9.5 points higher on Miami than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -16.5 · O/U 56.5 · ML +675 / -1050 · Miami 88% no-vig · model vs market +9.5 pts, +7 pct pts (Miami view)
Hard Rock Stadium - vs
Boston College Eagles
4-3 · SOS #61
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 44-11 · 98%
Our number
Miami by 33
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Hard Rock Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Miami Hurricanes stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+28.3
2nd in FBS
Adj. offense
43.0
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
14.7
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 49.0 | 1 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 15.3 | 11 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 7.83 | 2 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.02 | 26 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 219.0 | 20 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 326.7 | 5 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 72.6 | 1 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 227.9 | 101 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.29 | 12 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.57 | 115 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.71 | 20 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.29 | 37 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.31 | 2 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.02 | 36 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 53.1% | 2 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 37.3% | 27 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 16.4% | 8 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.0% | 51 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.3% | 110 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 8.4% | 3 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.21 | 3 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 2.94 | 7 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 30 | 68 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 28 | 48 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.7 | 28 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.12 | 48 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.50 | 2 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.24 | 1 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.11 | 90 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.3% | 38 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 59.2% | 1 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 10.5% | 2 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 41.0% | 9 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.7% | 82 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 53.9% | 10 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 34.4% | 29 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 73.9% | 18 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 43.1% | 12 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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