Matchup analysis
Our model projects Miami 44, Boston College 11 at Hard Rock Stadium in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: Miami wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 33.5 points and 54.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Boston College is 4-3 against the 63rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+0.8 per game). Miami (No. 1) is 7-0 against the 72nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 49 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+33.7 per game).
Miami's elite defense (4th) should limit Boston College's below-average offense (97th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.7 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Miami's elite offense (1st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 43.3 points against an average defense) against Boston College's middle-of-the-pack defense (62nd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Miami by 11 and Miami by 56 about 80% of the time.
Miami gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Miami by about 31.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Boston College vs Miami: stat comparison
| Stat | Boston College | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.4#96 | 49.0#1 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.6#63 | 15.3#11 |
| Yards per play | 6.14#57 | 7.83#2 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.29#47 | 5.02#26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.6#36 | 219.0#20 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.6#101 | 326.7#5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 165.9#90 | 72.6#1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 178.4#25 | 227.9#101 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#127 | 0.29#12 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#17 | 0.57#115 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29#53 | 2.71#20 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.43#110 | 1.29#37 |
| Stat | Boston College | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#104 | +0.31#2 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#42 | -0.02#36 |
| Success rate | 41.9%#84 | 53.1%#2 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2%#62 | 37.3%#27 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.4%#31 | 16.4%#8 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.1%#11 | 11.0%#51 |
| Havoc rate | 15.0%#43 | 12.3%#110 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.4%#130 | 8.4%#3 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.41#118 | 5.21#3 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.49#42 | 2.94#7 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#70 | own 30#68 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#118 | own 28#48 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.7#91 | 69.7#28 |
| Stat | Boston College | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#41 | +0.12#48 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#130 | +0.50#2 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01#48 | -0.24#1 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.00#46 | +0.11#90 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.8%#33 | 47.3%#38 |
| Passing success rate | 34.3%#129 | 59.2%#1 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0%#123 | 10.5%#2 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1%#103 | 41.0%#9 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.4%#99 | 30.7%#82 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.2%#78 | 53.9%#10 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.0%#44 | 34.4%#29 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.3%#115 | 73.9%#18 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.8%#54 | 43.1%#12 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Boston College schedule · Miami schedule · all Week 13 projections
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