2026 schedule

Boston College Eagles

4-3SOS #61

2026 season so far

Boston College is 4-3 against the 61st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+0.8 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Boston College ranks 78th of 139 FBS teams overall — 96th on offense and 62nd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at Duke in Week 9. We project Boston College 20, Duke 29 — Boston College wins 26% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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at
Cincinnati Bearcats
1-0 · SOS #41
Loss 15-34
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Cincinnati by 8.2
Total 58.2
DraftKings
CIN -7
Total 51.5
Final Cincinnati by 19. Cincinnati beat the spread. 49 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Cincinnati -7 (open Cincinnati -9.5) · O/U 51.25 (open 54.5) · ML +222.5 / -274 · Cincinnati 70% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +0 pct pts (Cincinnati view)
Fox Nippert Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
vs
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
0-2 · SOS #51
Win 28-21
Week 2
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 57.4
DraftKings
BC -3
Total 53.5
Final Boston College by 7. Boston College beat the spread. 49 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Boston College -3 (open Boston College -3.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 54.5) · ML +134.5 / -159 · Boston College 59% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -8 pct pts (Boston College view)
ESPN2 Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Slow-pace scoring dog vs reeling favDog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost · 2014–25 Underdog expected to score 24+, favorite lost its last game, both teams play slow: Record 81 hits, 70 misses (54% hit rate) over 151 graded games · 2026: 13-13Dog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost: missed Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
vs
Maine Black Bears
1-3 · SOS #63
Win 22-16
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Boston College by 37.6
Total 47
DraftKings
BC -37.5
Total 54.5
Final Boston College by 6. Maine beat the spread. 38 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Boston College -37.5 (open Boston College -38.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 53.5) · model vs market +0.1 pts (Boston College view)
ACCNX Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
vs
Virginia Tech Hokies
4-0 · SOS #111
Loss 14-21
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Virginia Tech by 12.4
Total 55
DraftKings
VT -14.5
Total 45.5
Final Virginia Tech by 7. Boston College beat the spread. 35 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia Tech -14.5 (open Virginia Tech -14) · O/U 45.5 (open 53.25) · ML -650 / +460 · Boston College 17% no-vig · model vs market +2.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Boston College view)
ACC Network Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Pregame calls · how each did
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. McKenzie QB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 75) · 78% · 138 ✗Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · E. Dickens RB · Low rush yds 56 (avg 68) · 78% · 9 ✓L. Reynolds TE · Low rec yds 65 (avg 88) · 73% · 15 ✓
at
#21 SMU Mustangs
4-1 · SOS #70
Loss 16-25
Week 5
Our number· pregame
SMU by 20.7
Total 50.9
DraftKings
SMU -21.5
Total 55.5
Final SMU by 9. Boston College beat the spread. 41 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -21.5 (open SMU -20.75) · O/U 55.25 (open 56.75) · ML +862.5 / -1575 · SMU 90% no-vig · model vs market -0.8 pts, +1 pct pts (SMU view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 73°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAL)
CW/ESPN Unlmtd Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Elite 114-37 (typical 60%) · M. McKenzie QB · Low rush yds 71 (avg 91) · 75% · 74 ✓Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · E. Dickens RB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 54) · 77% · 22 ✓K. Raphael RB · TD threat 75% · 1 ✓
vs
Pittsburgh Panthers
5-2 · SOS #53
Win 27-21
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 14.2
Total 48.2
DraftKings
PITT -6.5
Total 42.5
Final Boston College by 6. Boston College beat the spread. 48 points — over the 42.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -6.5 · O/U 42.75 (open 45.25) · ML -235 / +192.5 · Boston College 33% no-vig · model vs market -7.7 pts, -15 pct pts (Boston College view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 50°F, Wind 18 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBOS)
ESPN2 Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Pregame calls · how each did
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
M. McKenzie QB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 87) · 76% · 7 ✓E. Dickens RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 47) · 72% · 57 ✗M. McKenzie QB · Low pass yds 157 (avg 193) · 68% · 295 ✗
at
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
2-5 · SOS #43
Win 49-27
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Georgia Tech by 9.9
Total 49.1
DraftKings
GT -6.5
Total 50.5
Final Boston College by 22. Boston College beat the spread. 76 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia Tech -6.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML +200 / -245 · Georgia Tech 67% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +7 pct pts (Georgia Tech view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind 9 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFTY)
ACC Network Bobby Dodd Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: missed (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
Mid-total dog vs 3rd-down-leaky fav under2026 combo · Weak Under: Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 7 misses (78% hit rate) over 32 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: missed (n=32; wk 5–7 11-2) · Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank
at
Duke Blue Devils
5-2 · SOS #90
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 20-29 · 26%
Our number
Duke by 9
Total 49
DraftKings
DUKE -7
Total 47.5
We're 2 points higher on Duke than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Duke -7 · O/U 47.5 · ML +220 / -272.5 · Duke 70% no-vig · model vs market +2.0 pts, +4 pct pts (Duke view)
Kickoff forecast: Partly sunny, 64°F, Wind 7 mph NE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
CW Wallace Wade Stadium
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded games (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank 3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
N. Sheppard RB · TD threat 82%M. McKenzie QB · Low rush yds 63 (avg 88) · 72%B. MacCormack III RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 49) · 68%
vs
Florida State Seminoles
3-4 · SOS #13
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 22-31 · 27%
Our number
Florida State by 9
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ACC Network Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
at
#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6-1 · SOS #49
Sat, Nov 14, 8:30 PM
Week 11
Proj 9-42 · 1%
Our number
Notre Dame by 33
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
NBC Notre Dame Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. McKenzie QB · Low rush yds 54 (avg 88) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · B. MacCormack III RB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 49) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · E. Dickens RB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 42) · 78%
vs
Syracuse Orange
3-4 · SOS #77
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 26-26 · 50%
Our number
dead even
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
at
#1 Miami Hurricanes
7-0 · SOS #72
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 11-44 · 2%
Our number
Miami by 33
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Hard Rock Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · M. McKenzie QB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 88) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · B. MacCormack III RB · Low rush yds 37 (avg 49) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · E. Dickens RB · Low rush yds 29 (avg 42) · 78%

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Boston College Eagles stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-2.3

77th in FBS

Adj. offense

23.8

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

26.1

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	24.4	96 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	23.6	63 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.14	57 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.29	47 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	195.6	36 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	195.6	101 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	165.9	90 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	178.4	25 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.29	127 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.43	17 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.29	53 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.43	110 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.02	104 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.01	42 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	41.9%	84 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	40.2%	62 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	14.4%	31 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	9.1%	11 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.0%	43 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	16.4%	130 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.41	118 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.49	42 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 30	70 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 31	118 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	63.7	91 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.13	41 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.11	130 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.01	48 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.00	46 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	47.8%	33 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	34.3%	129 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	21.0%	123 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	28.1%	103 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	31.4%	99 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	40.2%	78 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	36.0%	44 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	53.3%	115 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	56.8%	54 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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