Matchup analysis
Our model projects Florida State 31, Boston College 22 at Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Florida State wins about 73% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.3 points and 52.8 combined points.
Florida State is 3-4 against the 13th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 27.9 points per game (+3.7 per game). Boston College is 4-3 against the 61st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.4 and allowing 23.6 points per game (+0.8 per game).
Florida State's strong offense (25th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Boston College's middle-of-the-pack defense (62nd); that mismatch is where most of Florida State's projected points come from. Expect Boston College to find it hard going: Florida State's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th) outranks Boston College's below-average offense (96th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.8 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida State by 32 and Boston College by 13 about 80% of the time.
Boston College gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Florida State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ACC Network.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Florida State vs Boston College: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida State | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6#51 | 24.4#96 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.9#103 | 23.6#63 |
| Yards per play | 6.46#37 | 6.14#57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.31#116 | 5.29#47 |
| Rushing yards per game | 193.7#40 | 195.6#36 |
| Net passing yards per game | 221.4#72 | 195.6#101 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 196.9#116 | 165.9#90 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 235.6#108 | 178.4#25 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#104 | 1.29#127 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#92 | 1.43#17 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#25 | 2.29#53 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.57#116 | 2.43#110 |
| Stat | Florida State | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#33 | +0.02#104 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20#129 | -0.01#42 |
| Success rate | 43.1%#69 | 41.9%#84 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7%#116 | 40.2%#62 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.6%#14 | 14.4%#31 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1%#118 | 9.1%#11 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4%#108 | 15.0%#43 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.1%#42 | 16.4%#130 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.70#28 | 3.41#118 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70#56 | 3.49#42 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#78 | own 30#70 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#43 | own 31#118 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.3#84 | 63.7#91 |
| Stat | Florida State | Boston College |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#39 | +0.13#41 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.23#25 | -0.11#130 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07#88 | -0.01#48 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.34#133 | -0.00#46 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.9%#51 | 47.8%#33 |
| Passing success rate | 39.9%#89 | 34.3%#129 |
| Run stuff rate | 12.6%#11 | 21.0%#123 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.9%#13 | 28.1%#103 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.9%#88 | 31.4%#99 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7%#57 | 40.2%#78 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9%#108 | 36.0%#44 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#12 | 53.3%#115 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5%#85 | 56.8%#54 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida State schedule · Boston College schedule · all Week 10 projections
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