2026 schedule
Florida State Seminoles
2026 season so far
Florida State is 3-4 against the 13th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 27.9 points per game (+3.7 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Florida State ranks 29th of 139 FBS teams overall — 25th on offense and 46th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: vs Clemson in Week 9. We project Florida State 28, Clemson 21 — Florida State wins 68% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
New Mexico State Aggies
0-1 · SOS #114
Win 34-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Florida State by 15.1
Total 53.1
DraftKings
FSU -30.5
Total 53.5
Final Florida State by 17. New Mexico State beat the spread. 51 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Florida State -30.75 (open Florida State -29) · O/U 53.5 · ML +2500 / -54000 · Florida State 96% no-vig · model vs market -15.6 pts, -12 pct pts (Florida State view)
CW Doak Campbell Stadium - vs
#19 SMU Mustangs
1-0 · SOS #70
Loss 24-27
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Florida State by 0.9
Total 54.9
DraftKings
SMU -3
Total 52.5
Final SMU by 3. The spread landed exactly on the number. 51 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: SMU -3 (open SMU -2.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.5) · ML -162.5 / +137.5 · Florida State 41% no-vig · model vs market +3.9 pts, +12 pct pts (Florida State view)
ESPN Doak Campbell Stadium - at
#10 Alabama Crimson Tide
3-0 · SOS #2
Loss 36-50
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 12.5
Total 53.5
DraftKings
ALA -18.5
Total 50.5
Final Alabama by 14. Florida State beat the spread. 86 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Alabama -18.5 (open Alabama -18) · O/U 50.25 (open 50.75) · ML +787.5 / -1425 · Alabama 89% no-vig · model vs market -6.0 pts, -10 pct pts (Alabama view)
ESPN2 Bryant-Denny Stadium - vs
Central Arkansas Bears
2-3 · SOS #28
Win 34-7
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Florida State by 34.4
Total 60.2
DraftKings
FSU -45.5
Total 62.5
Final Florida State by 27. Central Arkansas beat the spread. 41 points — under the 62.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Florida State -46 (open Florida State -44.5) · O/U 62.5 (open 61) · model vs market -11.6 pts (Florida State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 84°F, Wind 9 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTLH)ACC Network Doak Campbell Stadium - vs
Virginia Cavaliers
3-2 · SOS #54
Win 38-7
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Florida State by 1.3
Total 51.7
DraftKings
UVA -1.5
Total 51.5
Final Florida State by 31. Florida State beat the spread. 45 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia -1.25 (open Virginia -2) · O/U 51.5 · ML -126 / +6 · Florida State 47% no-vig · model vs market +2.6 pts, +7 pct pts (Florida State view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 84°F, Wind 3 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTLH)ESPN2 Doak Campbell Stadium - at
Louisville Cardinals
3-3 · SOS #17
Loss 20-44
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Louisville by 1.4
Total 58.6
DraftKings
LOU -4
Total 60.5
Final Louisville by 24. Louisville beat the spread. 64 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisville -4.25 (open Louisville -4.75) · O/U 60.5 (open 58.5) · ML +175 / -211 · Louisville 65% no-vig · model vs market -2.9 pts, -11 pct pts (Louisville view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 6 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSDF)ESPN L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium - at
#3 Miami Hurricanes
6-0 · SOS #72
Loss 35-43
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Miami by 24.1
Total 57.1
DraftKings
MIA -20.5
Total 57.5
Final Miami by 8. Florida State beat the spread. 78 points — over the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Miami -20.25 (open Miami -18.75) · O/U 57 (open 55) · ML +850 / -1600 · Miami 90% no-vig · model vs market +3.9 pts, +4 pct pts (Miami view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 75°F, Wind 7 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHWO)ESPN/Disney+ Hard Rock Stadium - vs
Clemson Tigers
4-3 · SOS #24
Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 28-21 · 68%
Our number
Florida State by 7
Total 49
DraftKings
FSU -6
Total 49.5
We're 1 points higher on Florida State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida State -6 · O/U 49.5 · ML +180 / -220 · Florida State 66% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +2 pct pts (Florida State view)
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 78°F, Wind 10 mph ENE, 31% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTACC Network Doak Campbell Stadium - at
Boston College Eagles
4-3 · SOS #61
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 31-22 · 73%
Our number
Florida State by 9
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ACC Network Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA) - at
Pittsburgh Panthers
5-3 · SOS #53
Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 28-30 · 47%
Our number
Pittsburgh by 2
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Acrisure Stadium - vs
NC State Wolfpack
3-4 · SOS #67
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 36-26 · 75%
Our number
Florida State by 10
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Doak Campbell Stadium - vs
#17 Florida Gators
5-2 · SOS #12
Fri, Nov 27, 8:30 PM
Week 13
Proj 31-31 · 49%
Our number
dead even
Total 62
DraftKings
FLA -4.5
Total 52.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Florida State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida -4.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -205 / +170 · Florida State 36% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +13 pct pts (Florida State view)
ABC Doak Campbell Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Florida State Seminoles stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+9.0
29th in FBS
Adj. offense
32.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
23.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 31.6 | 51 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 27.9 | 103 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.46 | 37 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.31 | 116 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 193.7 | 40 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 221.4 | 72 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 196.9 | 116 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 235.6 | 108 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.14 | 104 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.71 | 92 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.57 | 25 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.57 | 116 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.17 | 33 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.20 | 129 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 43.1% | 69 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.7% | 116 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 15.6% | 14 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.1% | 118 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.4% | 108 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 12.1% | 42 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.70 | 28 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.70 | 56 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 29 | 78 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 28 | 43 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.3 | 84 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.13 | 39 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.23 | 25 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.07 | 88 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.34 | 133 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 45.9% | 51 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.9% | 89 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 12.6% | 11 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 38.9% | 13 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.9% | 88 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 42.7% | 57 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 42.9% | 108 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 75.0% | 12 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 62.5% | 85 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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