Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida State 34.1, New Mexico State 19 at Doak Campbell Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Florida State wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.1 points and 53 combined points.
New Mexico State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Florida State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Florida State's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th) should limit New Mexico State's struggling offense (125th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Florida State's strong offense (25th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.5 points against an average defense) against New Mexico State's below-average defense (110th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico State by 7 and Florida State by 38 about 80% of the time.
Florida State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida State by about 13. The game is on CW.
Result: New Mexico State 17, Florida State 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 1.9 points and the total by 2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (New Mexico State / Florida State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida State -29 → Florida State -30.75 | 53.5 | +2500 / -54000 |
| Bovada | Florida State -29.5 → Florida State -31 | 53.5 | +2800 / -100000 |
| DraftKings | Florida State -28.5 → Florida State -30.5 | 53.5 | +2200 / -8000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida State -15 | 53.0 | 84% |
| Market consensus | Florida State -31 | 53.5 | 96% |
| Blended projection | Florida State -28.5 | 54.0 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida State win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) 96% · difference -12 pts
- Margin
- model Florida State -15.1 · market Florida State -30.75 · difference -15.6 pts (Florida State view)
- Total
- model 53.0 · market 53.5 · difference -0.5
Model margin is 15.6 pts more toward New Mexico State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | New Mexico State 19.0, Florida State 34.1 | Florida State 84%right winner | 1.9 | 2.0 |
| New formula | New Mexico State 8.5, Florida State 44.2 | Florida State 98%right winner | 18.7 | 1.7 |
Final: New Mexico State 17, Florida State 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
New Mexico State vs Florida State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | New Mexico State | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.6#112 | 33.0#22 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.6#88 | 22.0#43 |
| Yards per play | 5.16#122 | 7.12#9 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.80#67 | 5.29#32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 105.4#135 | 232.6#10 |
| Net passing yards per game | 262.8#27 | 261.6#29 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 181.8#93 | 149.2#43 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.6#109 | 189.0#27 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#101 | 1.17#91 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.42#27 | 1.00#69 |
| Sacks per game | 1.42#110 | 2.42#30 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75#121 | 2.00#86 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#114 | +0.13#22 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.04#41 | +0.04#88 |
| Success rate | 37.8%#119 | 45.8%#32 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7%#82 | 42.4%#78 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.9%#118 | 16.8%#6 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.3%#42 | 10.1%#22 |
| Havoc rate | 11.8%#90 | 11.4%#101 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4%#125 | 11.8%#64 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38#122 | 4.09#50 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.80#62 | 4.24#108 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#90 | own 30#69 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#103 | own 30#80 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.4#16 | 69.4#35 |
| Stat | New Mexico State | Florida State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.09#123 | +0.13#16 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.03#97 | +0.12#33 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.10#16 | +0.05#102 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#78 | +0.02#76 |
| Rushing success rate | 33.5%#135 | 50.2%#9 |
| Passing success rate | 40.0%#85 | 40.3%#78 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.4%#125 | 12.3%#2 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.2%#90 | 37.4%#12 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6%#54 | 30.5%#82 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.7%#40 | 50.0%#10 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%#87 | 38.1%#46 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.8%#120 | 67.9%#31 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.7%#57 | 67.6%#115 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: New Mexico State schedule · Florida State schedule · all Week 1 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.