Week 1 College Football Projections (2026)
Updated Oct 29, 2026
Week 1 of the 2026 college football season has 99 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is SMU at Florida State (0.9-point margin), the highest projected total is North Texas at Indiana (67.4 points) and the lowest is Wyoming at Colorado State (45). 5 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
99 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 86 of them (87%).
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Every FBS game
CSV download · Sports ProMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- FinalNeutral site
North Carolina21.5final 15
TCU29.6final 10Final: North Carolina 15, TCU 10. We projected TCU 29.6-21.5 (70%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
TCU by 8.1
Total 51.1
DraftKings
TCU -7.5
Total 46.5
Final North Carolina by 5. North Carolina beat the spread. 25 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: TCU -7.5 · O/U 46.25 (open 50.5) · ML +222.5 / -272.5 · TCU 70% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, +0 pct pts (TCU view)
TCU 70% · total 51.1Full preview → - FinalNBC
San José State20final 26
USC39.6final 42Final: San José State 26, USC 42. We projected USC 39.6-20 (90%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
USC by 19.6
Total 59.6
DraftKings
USC -37.5
Total 61.5
Final USC by 16. San José State beat the spread. 68 points — over the 61.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: USC -37.25 (open USC -35.5) · O/U 61 (open 57.5) · ML +4250 / -100000 · USC 98% no-vig · model vs market -17.6 pts, -8 pct pts (USC view)
USC 90% · total 59.6Full preview → - FinalESPN
NC State24.1final 8
Virginia29.7final 34Final: NC State 8, Virginia 34. We projected Virginia 29.7-24.1 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Virginia by 5.6
Total 53.7
DraftKings
Virginia -4
Total 50.5
Final Virginia by 26. Virginia beat the spread. 42 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Virginia -4 (open Virginia -3.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 54.5) · ML +139.5 / -165 · Virginia 60% no-vig · model vs market +1.6 pts, +5 pct pts (Virginia view)
Virginia 64% · total 53.7Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Jacksonville State22.7final 7
North Dakota State31.7final 33Final: Jacksonville State 7, North Dakota State 33. We projected North Dakota State 31.7-22.7 (72%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 9
Total 54.4
DraftKings
North Dakota State -6.5
Total 46.5
Final North Dakota State by 26. North Dakota State beat the spread. 40 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: North Dakota State -6.75 (open North Dakota State -10) · O/U 46.5 (open 48.5) · ML +240 / -297.5 · North Dakota State 72% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +1 pct pts (North Dakota State view)
North Dakota State 72% · total 54.4Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Sacramento State28final 17
Eastern Michigan32.3final 28Final: Sacramento State 17, Eastern Michigan 28. We projected Eastern Michigan 32.3-28 (61%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Eastern Michigan by 4.3
Total 60.2
DraftKings
Eastern Michigan -9.5
Total 52.5
Final Eastern Michigan by 11. Eastern Michigan beat the spread. 45 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Eastern Michigan -9.25 (open Eastern Michigan -8.5) · O/U 52.75 (open 52.5) · ML +272.5 / -342.5 · Eastern Michigan 74% no-vig · model vs market -4.9 pts, -13 pct pts (Eastern Michigan view)
Eastern Michigan 61% · total 60.2Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Hawai'i25.3final 27
Stanford27.2final 37Final: Hawai'i 27, Stanford 37. We projected Stanford 27.2-25.3 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Stanford by 1.9
Total 52.4
DraftKings
Stanford -4.5
Total 48.5
Final Stanford by 10. Stanford beat the spread. 64 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Stanford -4.75 (open Stanford -3) · O/U 48.5 (open 50.5) · ML +157.5 / -187.5 · Stanford 63% no-vig · model vs market -2.8 pts, -8 pct pts (Stanford view)
Stanford 55% · total 52.4Full preview → - FinalCW
New Mexico State19final 17
Florida State34.1final 34Final: New Mexico State 17, Florida State 34. We projected Florida State 34.1-19 (84%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Florida State by 15.1
Total 53
DraftKings
Florida State -30.5
Total 53.5
Final Florida State by 17. New Mexico State beat the spread. 51 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Florida State -30.75 (open Florida State -29) · O/U 53.5 · ML +2500 / -54000 · Florida State 96% no-vig · model vs market -15.6 pts, -12 pct pts (Florida State view)
Florida State 84% · total 53Full preview → - FinalFox
Memphis28.6final 27
UNLV31.1final 21Final: Memphis 27, UNLV 21. We projected UNLV 31.1-28.6 (57%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
UNLV by 2.5
Total 59.6
DraftKings
UNLV -4.5
Total 55.5
Final Memphis by 6. Memphis beat the spread. 48 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: UNLV -4.75 (open UNLV -3) · O/U 55.5 (open 60.5) · ML +154.5 / -184 · UNLV 62% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -6 pct pts (UNLV view)
UNLV 57% · total 59.6Full preview → - FinalBTN
Massachusetts19.1final 37
Rutgers40.5final 21Final: Massachusetts 37, Rutgers 21. We projected Rutgers 40.5-19.1 (92%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Rutgers by 21.4
Total 59.5
DraftKings
Rutgers -29.5
Total 55.5
Final Massachusetts by 16. Massachusetts beat the spread. 58 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Rutgers -29.25 (open Rutgers -30.5) · O/U 55 (open 54.5) · ML +2200 / -8000 · Rutgers 96% no-vig · model vs market -7.9 pts, -4 pct pts (Rutgers view)
Rutgers 92% · total 59.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Bethune-Cookman12.3final 6
UCF43.5final 73Final: Bethune-Cookman 6, UCF 73. We projected UCF 43.5-12.3 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
UCF by 31.2
Total 55.8
DraftKings
UCF -43.5
Total 58.5
Final UCF by 67. UCF beat the spread. 79 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: UCF -43.5 (open UCF -41.5) · O/U 58.5 · model vs market -12.3 pts (UCF view)
UCF 98% · total 55.8Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Akron19final 16
Wake Forest32.5final 38Final: Akron 16, Wake Forest 38. We projected Wake Forest 32.5-19 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Wake Forest by 13.5
Total 51.4
DraftKings
Wake Forest -27.5
Total 50.5
Final Wake Forest by 22. Akron beat the spread. 54 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Wake Forest -27.5 (open Wake Forest -22.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 49.5) · ML +1300 / -3550 · Wake Forest 93% no-vig · model vs market -14.0 pts, -12 pct pts (Wake Forest view)
Wake Forest 81% · total 51.4Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Merrimack12final 7
Delaware41.7final 42Final: Merrimack 7, Delaware 42. We projected Delaware 41.7-12 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Delaware by 29.7
Total 53.6
DraftKings
Delaware -31.5
Total 56.5
Final Delaware by 35. Delaware beat the spread. 49 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Delaware -31.5 (open Delaware -28.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 55.5) · ML +2200 / -8000 · Delaware 96% no-vig · model vs market -1.8 pts, +2 pct pts (Delaware view)
Delaware 97% · total 53.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
West Georgia11.5final 0
Kennesaw State39.3final 47Final: West Georgia 0, Kennesaw State 47. We projected Kennesaw State 39.3-11.5 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Kennesaw State by 27.8
Total 50.7
DraftKings
Kennesaw State -22.5
Total 50.5
Final Kennesaw State by 47. Kennesaw State beat the spread. 47 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Kennesaw State -22.5 · O/U 50.5 (open 51.5) · ML +1500 / -3600 · Kennesaw State 94% no-vig · model vs market +5.3 pts, +3 pct pts (Kennesaw State view)
Kennesaw State 97% · total 50.7Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UAlbany9.3final 17
Buffalo41.3final 21Final: UAlbany 17, Buffalo 21. We projected Buffalo 41.3-9.3 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Buffalo by 32
Total 50.5
DraftKings
Buffalo -18.5
Total 47.5
Final Buffalo by 4. UAlbany beat the spread. 38 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Buffalo -18.5 (open Buffalo -24.5) · O/U 47.5 (open 48.5) · ML +650 / -1000 · Buffalo 87% no-vig · model vs market +13.5 pts, +11 pct pts (Buffalo view)
Buffalo 98% · total 50.5Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Arkansas-Pine Bluff3.4final 14
Missouri48.1final 54Final: Arkansas-Pine Bluff 14, Missouri 54. We projected Missouri 48.1-3.4 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Missouri by 44.6
Total 51.5
DraftKings
Missouri -55.5
Total 62.5
Final Missouri by 40. Arkansas-Pine Bluff beat the spread. 68 points — over the 62.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Missouri -55.5 (open Missouri -54.5) · O/U 62.5 (open 60.5) · model vs market -10.9 pts (Missouri view)
Missouri 100% · total 51.5Full preview → - FinalESPN
Colorado22.7final 14
Georgia Tech32.6final 13Final: Colorado 14, Georgia Tech 13. We projected Georgia Tech 32.6-22.7 (74%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Georgia Tech by 9.9
Total 55.3
DraftKings
Georgia Tech -6.5
Total 53.5
Final Colorado by 1. Colorado beat the spread. 27 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Georgia Tech -6.5 (open Georgia Tech -7) · O/U 53 (open 51.5) · ML +217.5 / -264 · Georgia Tech 70% no-vig · model vs market +3.4 pts, +5 pct pts (Georgia Tech view)
Georgia Tech 74% · total 55.3Full preview → - FinalPeacock
Eastern Illinois6.6final 7
Minnesota42.7final 59Final: Eastern Illinois 7, Minnesota 59. We projected Minnesota 42.7-6.6 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Minnesota by 36.1
Total 49.2
DraftKings
Minnesota -42.5
Total 52.5
Final Minnesota by 52. Minnesota beat the spread. 66 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Minnesota -42.5 (open Minnesota -43.5) · O/U 52.5 · model vs market -6.4 pts (Minnesota view)
Minnesota 99% · total 49.2Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Idaho8final 14
Utah49.2final 66Final: Idaho 14, Utah 66. We projected Utah 49.2-8 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Utah by 41.2
Total 57.1
DraftKings
Utah -38.5
Total 60.5
Final Utah by 52. Utah beat the spread. 80 points — over the 60.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Utah -38.5 (open Utah -32.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 56.5) · ML +5000 / -100000 · Utah 98% no-vig · model vs market +2.7 pts, +2 pct pts (Utah view)
Utah 100% · total 57.1Full preview → - FinalBTN
UAB20.9final 23
Illinois36.8final 42Final: UAB 23, Illinois 42. We projected Illinois 36.8-20.9 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Illinois by 15.9
Total 57.6
DraftKings
Illinois -25.5
Total 53.5
Final Illinois by 19. UAB beat the spread. 65 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Illinois -26 (open Illinois -27.5) · O/U 54 (open 56.5) · ML +1450 / -5800 · Illinois 94% no-vig · model vs market -10.1 pts, -9 pct pts (Illinois view)
Illinois 85% · total 57.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+San José State27.3final 27Eastern Michigan32final 21
Final: San José State 27, Eastern Michigan 21. We projected Eastern Michigan 32-27.3 (62%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Eastern Michigan by 4.7
Total 59.3
DraftKings
Eastern Michigan -1.5
Total 54.5
Final San José State by 6. San José State beat the spread. 48 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Eastern Michigan -1.5 (open Eastern Michigan -3.5) · O/U 54.75 (open 53.5) · ML +20 / -142.5 · Eastern Michigan 56% no-vig · model vs market +3.2 pts, +6 pct pts (Eastern Michigan view)
Eastern Michigan 62% · total 59.3Full preview → - FinalBTN
Indiana State11.8final 19
Purdue43.5final 44Final: Indiana State 19, Purdue 44. We projected Purdue 43.5-11.8 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Purdue by 31.7
Total 55.3
DraftKings
Purdue -35.5
Total 55.5
Final Purdue by 25. Indiana State beat the spread. 63 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Purdue -35.5 (open Purdue -35) · O/U 55.75 (open 56.25) · model vs market -3.8 pts (Purdue view)
Purdue 98% · total 55.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
North Carolina A&T13.8final 10
Georgia State47final 59Final: North Carolina A&T 10, Georgia State 59. We projected Georgia State 47-13.8 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Georgia State by 33.2
Total 60.8
DraftKings
Georgia State -28.5
Total 58.5
Final Georgia State by 49. Georgia State beat the spread. 69 points — over the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Georgia State -28.25 · O/U 59.75 (open 62.25) · ML +1600 / -4000 · Georgia State 94% no-vig · model vs market +5.0 pts, +4 pct pts (Georgia State view)
Georgia State 99% · total 60.8Full preview → - FinalSECN+
UTEP15.3final 0
Oklahoma34.2final 51Final: UTEP 0, Oklahoma 51. We projected Oklahoma 34.2-15.3 (89%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Oklahoma by 18.9
Total 49.4
DraftKings
Oklahoma -40.5
Total 51.5
Final Oklahoma by 51. Oklahoma beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Oklahoma -40.75 (open Oklahoma -40.5) · O/U 51.25 (open 50.5) · model vs market -21.8 pts (Oklahoma view)
Oklahoma 89% · total 49.4Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Long Island University7.2final 6
Kansas40.6final 51Final: Long Island University 6, Kansas 51. We projected Kansas 40.6-7.2 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Kansas by 33.4
Total 47.8
DraftKings
Kansas -44.5
Total 57.5
Final Kansas by 45. Kansas beat the spread. 57 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Kansas -43.25 (open Kansas -40.25) · O/U 56 (open 54) · model vs market -9.9 pts (Kansas view)
Kansas 99% · total 47.8Full preview → - FinalFS1
Toledo27.6final 20
Michigan State24.5final 30Final: Toledo 20, Michigan State 30. We projected Toledo 27.6-24.5 (58%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 3.1
Total 52
DraftKings
Michigan State -10
Total 48.5
Final Michigan State by 10. The spread landed exactly on the number. 50 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Michigan State -10 (open Michigan State -10.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML +312.5 / -410 · Michigan State 77% no-vig · model vs market -13.1 pts, -35 pct pts (Michigan State view)
Toledo 58% · total 52Full preview → - FinalESPN
Miami30.1final 45Stanford16.9final 6Final: Miami 45, Stanford 6. We projected Miami 30.1-16.9 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Miami by 13.2
Total 46.9
DraftKings
Miami -24.5
Total 46.5
Final Miami by 39. Miami beat the spread. 51 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Miami -24.5 (open Miami -21.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 48.5) · ML -3750 / +1350 · Stanford 7% no-vig · model vs market +11.3 pts, +13 pct pts (Stanford view)
Miami 81% · total 46.9Full preview → - FinalFox
Fresno State20.2final 0USC32.6final 39Final: Fresno State 0, USC 39. We projected USC 32.6-20.2 (79%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
USC by 12.4
Total 52.8
DraftKings
USC -21.5
Total 51.5
Final USC by 39. USC beat the spread. 39 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: USC -22 (open USC -23.25) · O/U 51.25 (open 51.5) · ML +1050 / -2650 · USC 92% no-vig · model vs market -9.6 pts, -13 pct pts (USC view)
USC 79% · total 52.8Full preview → - FinalFox
North Texas27final 16
Indiana40.5final 52Final: North Texas 16, Indiana 52. We projected Indiana 40.5-27 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Indiana by 13.5
Total 67.4
DraftKings
Indiana -39.5
Total 57.5
Final Indiana by 36. North Texas beat the spread. 68 points — over the 57.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Indiana -40 (open Indiana -40.5) · O/U 56.75 (open 55.5) · model vs market -26.5 pts (Indiana view)
Indiana 81% · total 67.4Full preview → - FinalABC
East Carolina23.4final 10
Alabama29.7final 48Final: East Carolina 10, Alabama 48. We projected Alabama 29.7-23.4 (66%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 6.3
Total 53
DraftKings
Alabama -28.5
Total 52.5
Final Alabama by 38. Alabama beat the spread. 58 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Alabama -28.25 (open Alabama -25.5) · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML +1600 / -6250 · Alabama 94% no-vig · model vs market -21.9 pts, -28 pct pts (Alabama view)
Alabama 66% · total 53Full preview → - FinalESPNEWS/Disney+
Oregon State19.9final 20
Houston32.9final 33Final: Oregon State 20, Houston 33. We projected Houston 32.9-19.9 (80%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Houston by 13
Total 52.7
DraftKings
Houston -21
Total 50.5
Final Houston by 13. Oregon State beat the spread. 53 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Houston -20.75 (open Houston -18.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 51.5) · ML +787.5 / -1375 · Houston 89% no-vig · model vs market -7.7 pts, -9 pct pts (Houston view)
Houston 80% · total 52.7Full preview → - FinalTNT
Coastal Carolina25final 24
West Virginia32.1final 31Final: Coastal Carolina 24, West Virginia 31. We projected West Virginia 32.1-25 (68%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
West Virginia by 7.1
Total 57.1
DraftKings
West Virginia -21
Total 54.5
Final West Virginia by 7. Coastal Carolina beat the spread. 55 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: West Virginia -21 (open West Virginia -17.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 57.5) · ML -49575 / -1587.5 · West Virginia 69% no-vig · model vs market -13.9 pts, -1 pct pts (West Virginia view)
West Virginia 68% · total 57.1Full preview → - FinalACC Network/ACCNX
New Hampshire13.7final 3
Syracuse37.6final 66Final: New Hampshire 3, Syracuse 66. We projected Syracuse 37.6-13.7 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Syracuse by 23.8
Total 51.3
DraftKings
Syracuse -35.5
Total 56.5
Final Syracuse by 63. Syracuse beat the spread. 69 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Syracuse -35 (open Syracuse -33.5) · O/U 56 (open 55.25) · ML +5000 / -100000 · Syracuse 98% no-vig · model vs market -11.2 pts, -4 pct pts (Syracuse view)
Syracuse 94% · total 51.3Full preview → - FinalFS1
Ohio24.6final 21
Nebraska29.2final 49Final: Ohio 21, Nebraska 49. We projected Nebraska 29.2-24.6 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Nebraska by 4.6
Total 53.7
DraftKings
Nebraska -23.5
Total 47.5
Final Nebraska by 28. Nebraska beat the spread. 70 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Nebraska -23.75 (open Nebraska -23.5) · O/U 47 (open 47.5) · ML +1100 / -2450 · Nebraska 92% no-vig · model vs market -19.1 pts, -30 pct pts (Nebraska view)
Nebraska 62% · total 53.7Full preview → - Final
Lafayette18.3final 7
UConn48final 56Final: Lafayette 7, UConn 56. We projected UConn 48-18.3 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
UConn by 29.7
Total 66.2
DraftKings
UConn -21.5
Total 51.5
Final UConn by 49. UConn beat the spread. 63 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: UConn -20.5 (open UConn -19.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 55) · ML +862.5 / -1550 · UConn 90% no-vig · model vs market +9.2 pts, +8 pct pts (UConn view)
UConn 97% · total 66.2Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Bryant4.8final 3
Army43.2final 59Final: Bryant 3, Army 59. We projected Army 43.2-4.8 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Army by 38.4
Total 47.9
DraftKings
Army -37.5
Total 51.5
Final Army by 56. Army beat the spread. 62 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Army -37.25 (open Army -36.75) · O/U 51 (open 50.5) · model vs market +1.1 pts (Army view)
Army 99% · total 47.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Tarleton State19.9final 20
Bowling Green34.1final 13Final: Tarleton State 20, Bowling Green 13. We projected Bowling Green 34.1-19.9 (82%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Bowling Green by 14.2
Total 53.9
DraftKings
Bowling Green -1.5
Total 49.5
Final Tarleton State by 7. Tarleton State beat the spread. 33 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Bowling Green -1.75 (open Bowling Green -2.25) · O/U 48.75 (open 47.75) · ML +102.5 / -122.5 · Bowling Green 53% no-vig · model vs market +12.5 pts, +30 pct pts (Bowling Green view)
Bowling Green 82% · total 53.9Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Liberty20.7final 13
James Madison35.5final 20Final: Liberty 13, James Madison 20. We projected James Madison 35.5-20.7 (83%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 14.8
Total 56.1
DraftKings
James Madison -6
Total 50.5
Final James Madison by 7. James Madison beat the spread. 33 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: James Madison -6 · O/U 50.5 · ML +197.5 / -237.5 · James Madison 68% no-vig · model vs market +8.8 pts, +16 pct pts (James Madison view)
James Madison 83% · total 56.1Full preview → - FinalBTN
Ball State9.8final 3
Ohio State37.3final 56Final: Ball State 3, Ohio State 56. We projected Ohio State 37.3-9.8 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 27.5
Total 47
DraftKings
Ohio State -50.5
Total 55.5
Final Ohio State by 53. Ohio State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -50.75 (open Ohio State -50) · O/U 56 (open 56.5) · model vs market -23.2 pts (Ohio State view)
Ohio State 96% · total 47Full preview → - FinalCW
Miami (OH)22.2final 14
Pittsburgh32.3final 59Final: Miami (OH) 14, Pittsburgh 59. We projected Pittsburgh 32.3-22.2 (75%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 10.1
Total 54.4
DraftKings
Pittsburgh -16.5
Total 47.5
Final Pittsburgh by 45. Pittsburgh beat the spread. 73 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Pittsburgh -16.25 (open Pittsburgh -16.5) · O/U 47.25 (open 50.5) · ML +550 / -825 · Pittsburgh 85% no-vig · model vs market -6.1 pts, -11 pct pts (Pittsburgh view)
Pittsburgh 75% · total 54.4Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Kent State19.9final 0
South Carolina33.7final 57Final: Kent State 0, South Carolina 57. We projected South Carolina 33.7-19.9 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
South Carolina by 13.8
Total 53.6
DraftKings
South Carolina -35.5
Total 52.5
Final South Carolina by 57. South Carolina beat the spread. 57 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Carolina -36 (open South Carolina -34) · O/U 53 (open 52.5) · ML -48000 / -75000 · South Carolina 74% no-vig · model vs market -22.2 pts, +8 pct pts (South Carolina view)
South Carolina 82% · total 53.6Full preview → - FinalSECN+
Youngstown State17final 13
Kentucky43.9final 45Final: Youngstown State 13, Kentucky 45. We projected Kentucky 43.9-17 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Kentucky by 26.8
Total 60.9
DraftKings
Kentucky -22.5
Total 61.5
Final Kentucky by 32. Kentucky beat the spread. 58 points — under the 61.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kentucky -22.25 (open Kentucky -23.25) · O/U 62 (open 62.5) · ML +950 / -1900 · Kentucky 91% no-vig · model vs market +4.6 pts, +5 pct pts (Kentucky view)
Kentucky 96% · total 60.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Southeast Missouri State6.6final 10
Iowa State45.4final 38Final: Southeast Missouri State 10, Iowa State 38. We projected Iowa State 45.4-6.6 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Iowa State by 38.7
Total 52
DraftKings
Iowa State -29.5
Total 52.5
Final Iowa State by 28. Southeast Missouri State beat the spread. 48 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Iowa State -29.5 · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML +2500 / -9000 · Iowa State 96% no-vig · model vs market +9.2 pts, +3 pct pts (Iowa State view)
Iowa State 99% · total 52Full preview → - FinalMW+
Duquesne16final 0
Air Force43.8final 34Final: Duquesne 0, Air Force 34. We projected Air Force 43.8-16 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Air Force by 27.9
Total 59.8
DraftKings
Air Force -31.5
Total 55.5
Final Air Force by 34. Air Force beat the spread. 34 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Air Force -30 (open Air Force -29.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 58) · ML +2000 / -6500 · Air Force 95% no-vig · model vs market -2.1 pts, +1 pct pts (Air Force view)
Air Force 97% · total 59.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Rhode Island17.2final 14
Temple40.9final 38Final: Rhode Island 14, Temple 38. We projected Temple 40.9-17.2 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Temple by 23.7
Total 58.1
DraftKings
Temple -14.5
Total 51.5
Final Temple by 24. Temple beat the spread. 52 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Temple -14.5 (open Temple -12.25) · O/U 51.25 · ML +487.5 / -700 · Temple 84% no-vig · model vs market +9.2 pts, +10 pct pts (Temple view)
Temple 94% · total 58.1Full preview → - FinalSECN+
Tennessee State0final 3
Georgia46.9final 63Final: Tennessee State 3, Georgia 63. We projected Georgia 46.9-0 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Georgia by 46.9
Total 46.9
DraftKings
Georgia -49.5
Total 55.5
Final Georgia by 60. Georgia beat the spread. 66 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia -49.25 (open Georgia -47.25) · O/U 55.25 (open 55.5) · model vs market -2.4 pts (Georgia view)
Georgia 100% · total 46.9Full preview → - FinalCBS
Boise State21final 27
Oregon35.1final 34Final: Boise State 27, Oregon 34. We projected Oregon 35.1-21 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 14.1
Total 56
DraftKings
Oregon -24.5
Total 53.5
Final Oregon by 7. Boise State beat the spread. 61 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon -24.75 (open Oregon -24.5) · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML +1200 / -3050 · Oregon 93% no-vig · model vs market -10.6 pts, -10 pct pts (Oregon view)
Oregon 82% · total 56Full preview → - FinalESPN
Texas State25.3final 7
Texas35final 59Final: Texas State 7, Texas 59. We projected Texas 35-25.3 (74%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Texas by 9.7
Total 60.3
DraftKings
Texas -29.5
Total 61.5
Final Texas by 52. Texas beat the spread. 66 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas -29.5 (open Texas -30.5) · O/U 60.75 (open 59.5) · ML +2500 / -9500 · Texas 96% no-vig · model vs market -19.8 pts, -23 pct pts (Texas view)
Texas 74% · total 60.3Full preview → - FinalFS1
Marshall22.2final 0
Penn State35.8final 45Final: Marshall 0, Penn State 45. We projected Penn State 35.8-22.2 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Penn State by 13.6
Total 57.9
DraftKings
Penn State -23.5
Total 53.5
Final Penn State by 45. Penn State beat the spread. 45 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Penn State -23.25 (open Penn State -23.5) · O/U 52.75 (open 54.5) · ML +1050 / -2650 · Penn State 92% no-vig · model vs market -9.6 pts, -10 pct pts (Penn State view)
Penn State 81% · total 57.9Full preview → - FinalSECN+
Furman11.2final 9
Tennessee51.6final 56Final: Furman 9, Tennessee 56. We projected Tennessee 51.6-11.2 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Tennessee by 40.4
Total 62.7
DraftKings
Tennessee -49.5
Total 66.5
Final Tennessee by 47. Furman beat the spread. 65 points — under the 66.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee -49.25 (open Tennessee -47.25) · O/U 66.5 · model vs market -8.9 pts (Tennessee view)
Tennessee 100% · total 62.7Full preview → - FinalNeutral site
Baylor26.1final 16
Auburn30.8final 17Final: Baylor 16, Auburn 17. We projected Auburn 30.8-26.1 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Auburn by 4.7
Total 56.9
DraftKings
Auburn -6.5
Total 58.5
Final Auburn by 1. Baylor beat the spread. 33 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Auburn -6.5 (open Auburn -7) · O/U 58.5 · ML +220 / -270 · Auburn 70% no-vig · model vs market -1.8 pts, -8 pct pts (Auburn view)
Auburn 62% · total 56.9Full preview →
- FinalFox
Boston College25final 15
Cincinnati33.2final 34Final: Boston College 15, Cincinnati 34. We projected Cincinnati 33.2-25 (70%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Cincinnati by 8.2
Total 58.1
DraftKings
Cincinnati -7
Total 51.5
Final Cincinnati by 19. Cincinnati beat the spread. 49 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Cincinnati -7 (open Cincinnati -9.5) · O/U 51.25 (open 54.5) · ML +222.5 / -274 · Cincinnati 70% no-vig · model vs market +1.2 pts, +0 pct pts (Cincinnati view)
Cincinnati 70% · total 58.1Full preview → - FinalACC Network/ACCNX
Tulane27.3final 3
Duke31.6final 17Final: Tulane 3, Duke 17. We projected Duke 31.6-27.3 (61%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Duke by 4.3
Total 58.8
DraftKings
Duke -9.5
Total 51.5
Final Duke by 14. Duke beat the spread. 20 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Duke -8.75 (open Duke -8.5) · O/U 51 (open 53.5) · ML +325 / -430 · Duke 77% no-vig · model vs market -4.4 pts, -16 pct pts (Duke view)
Duke 61% · total 58.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
The Citadel12.9final 43
Charlotte34.7final 41Final: The Citadel 43, Charlotte 41. We projected Charlotte 34.7-12.9 (92%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Charlotte by 21.8
Total 47.5
DraftKings
Charlotte -20.5
Total 49.5
Final The Citadel by 2. The Citadel beat the spread. 84 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Charlotte -20.5 (open Charlotte -17.75) · O/U 49.25 (open 46.5) · ML +850 / -1525 · Charlotte 90% no-vig · model vs market +1.3 pts, +3 pct pts (Charlotte view)
Charlotte 92% · total 47.5Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Towson9.3final 15
Navy43.1final 42Final: Towson 15, Navy 42. We projected Navy 43.1-9.3 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Navy by 33.8
Total 52.3
DraftKings
Navy -31.5
Total 50.5
Final Navy by 27. Towson beat the spread. 57 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Navy -31 (open Navy -30.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 52) · ML +5000 / -100000 · Navy 98% no-vig · model vs market +2.8 pts, +1 pct pts (Navy view)
Navy 99% · total 52.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UT Rio Grande Valley16.8final 16
UTSA45.9final 45Final: UT Rio Grande Valley 16, UTSA 45. We projected UTSA 45.9-16.8 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 29.1
Total 62.7
DraftKings
UTSA -28.5
Total 59.5
Final UTSA by 29. UTSA beat the spread. 61 points — over the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UTSA -28.5 · O/U 59.5 · ML +1800 / -8250 · UTSA 95% no-vig · model vs market +0.6 pts, +2 pct pts (UTSA view)
UTSA 97% · total 62.7Full preview → - FinalMW+
Fordham5final 0North Dakota State47final 38Final: Fordham 0, North Dakota State 38. We projected North Dakota State 47-5 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 42
Total 52
DraftKings
North Dakota State -41.5
Total 54.5
Final North Dakota State by 38. Fordham beat the spread. 38 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Dakota State -41.5 (open North Dakota State -40.5) · O/U 54.25 (open 56.75) · model vs market +0.5 pts (North Dakota State view)
North Dakota State 100% · total 52Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Maine13.1final 3
App State39final 55Final: Maine 3, App State 55. We projected App State 39-13.1 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
App State by 25.9
Total 52.1
DraftKings
App State -21
Total 53.5
Final App State by 52. App State beat the spread. 58 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: App State -21 (open App State -18.5) · O/U 53.75 (open 53.5) · ML +787.5 / -1375 · App State 89% no-vig · model vs market +4.9 pts, +6 pct pts (App State view)
App State 96% · total 52.1Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Oklahoma State22.7final 10
Tulsa28.4final 24Final: Oklahoma State 10, Tulsa 24. We projected Tulsa 28.4-22.7 (65%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Tulsa by 5.7
Total 51
DraftKings
Oklahoma State -13.5
Total 57.5
Final Tulsa by 14. Tulsa beat the spread. 34 points — under the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oklahoma State -13.25 (open Oklahoma State -11.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 61.5) · ML -550 / +400 · Tulsa 19% no-vig · model vs market +19.0 pts, +45 pct pts (Tulsa view)
Tulsa 65% · total 51Full preview → - FinalBTN
Northern Illinois12.9final 0
Iowa32.6final 40Final: Northern Illinois 0, Iowa 40. We projected Iowa 32.6-12.9 (90%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Iowa by 19.7
Total 45.5
DraftKings
Iowa -31.5
Total 44.5
Final Iowa by 40. Iowa beat the spread. 40 points — under the 44.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Iowa -31.75 (open Iowa -29.5) · O/U 44.5 (open 43.5) · ML +3750 / -55000 · Iowa 97% no-vig · model vs market -12.0 pts, -7 pct pts (Iowa view)
Iowa 90% · total 45.5Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
North Alabama15final 14
Arkansas51.8final 31Final: North Alabama 14, Arkansas 31. We projected Arkansas 51.8-15 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Arkansas by 36.7
Total 66.8
DraftKings
Arkansas -40.5
Total 63.5
Final Arkansas by 17. North Alabama beat the spread. 45 points — under the 63.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arkansas -40.5 · O/U 63.25 · model vs market -3.8 pts (Arkansas view)
Arkansas 99% · total 66.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Alcorn State10.7final 3
Southern Miss41.7final 49Final: Alcorn State 3, Southern Miss 49. We projected Southern Miss 41.7-10.7 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Southern Miss by 31
Total 52.4
DraftKings
Southern Miss -20.5
Total 51.5
Final Southern Miss by 46. Southern Miss beat the spread. 52 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Miss -20 (open Southern Miss -20.5) · O/U 51.25 (open 50.5) · ML +825 / -1500 · Southern Miss 90% no-vig · model vs market +11.0 pts, +8 pct pts (Southern Miss view)
Southern Miss 98% · total 52.4Full preview → - FinalUSA Net
Wyoming21.8final 13
Colorado State23.2final 35Final: Wyoming 13, Colorado State 35. We projected Colorado State 23.2-21.8 (54%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Colorado State by 1.4
Total 45
DraftKings
Colorado State -2.5
Total 45.5
Final Colorado State by 22. Colorado State beat the spread. 48 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colorado State -2.75 (open Colorado State -4) · O/U 46 (open 47.5) · ML +137.5 / -161 · Colorado State 59% no-vig · model vs market -1.3 pts, -6 pct pts (Colorado State view)
Colorado State 54% · total 45Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Norfolk State4.4final 10
Old Dominion49.5final 31Final: Norfolk State 10, Old Dominion 31. We projected Old Dominion 49.5-4.4 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Old Dominion by 45
Total 53.9
DraftKings
Old Dominion -41.5
Total 52.5
Final Old Dominion by 21. Norfolk State beat the spread. 41 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Old Dominion -41.25 · O/U 52.25 (open 54) · model vs market +3.8 pts (Old Dominion view)
Old Dominion 100% · total 53.9Full preview → - FinalESPN
Missouri State20.6final 0
Texas A&M35.7final 50Final: Missouri State 0, Texas A&M 50. We projected Texas A&M 35.7-20.6 (84%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Texas A&M by 15.1
Total 56.3
DraftKings
Texas A&M -38.5
Total 53.5
Final Texas A&M by 50. Texas A&M beat the spread. 50 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas A&M -39.5 (open Texas A&M -38.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.5) · model vs market -24.4 pts (Texas A&M view)
Texas A&M 84% · total 56.3Full preview → - FinalFS1
Abilene Christian7.8final 10
Texas Tech46.7final 33Final: Abilene Christian 10, Texas Tech 33. We projected Texas Tech 46.7-7.8 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Texas Tech by 38.9
Total 54.4
DraftKings
Texas Tech -45.5
Total 61.5
Final Texas Tech by 23. Abilene Christian beat the spread. 43 points — under the 61.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas Tech -45 (open Texas Tech -42.5) · O/U 61 (open 59.5) · model vs market -6.1 pts (Texas Tech view)
Texas Tech 99% · total 54.4Full preview → - FinalSECN+
Austin Peay15.2final 9
Vanderbilt50.6final 28Final: Austin Peay 9, Vanderbilt 28. We projected Vanderbilt 50.6-15.2 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Vanderbilt by 35.4
Total 65.8
DraftKings
Vanderbilt -29.5
Total 57.5
Final Vanderbilt by 19. Austin Peay beat the spread. 37 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Vanderbilt -29.25 (open Vanderbilt -29.75) · O/U 58.25 (open 61) · ML +1662.5 / -6250 · Vanderbilt 94% no-vig · model vs market +6.1 pts, +5 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
Vanderbilt 99% · total 65.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Nicholls8.5final 3
Kansas State44.3final 71Final: Nicholls 3, Kansas State 71. We projected Kansas State 44.3-8.5 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Kansas State by 35.9
Total 52.8
DraftKings
Kansas State -41.5
Total 55.5
Final Kansas State by 68. Kansas State beat the spread. 74 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kansas State -41.25 (open Kansas State -40.5) · O/U 55.25 (open 55) · model vs market -5.4 pts (Kansas State view)
Kansas State 99% · total 52.8Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Idaho State16.5final 29
Utah State43.1final 17Final: Idaho State 29, Utah State 17. We projected Utah State 43.1-16.5 (96%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Utah State by 26.6
Total 59.6
DraftKings
Utah State -15.5
Total 59.5
Final Idaho State by 12. Idaho State beat the spread. 46 points — under the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah State -15 (open Utah State -12.75) · O/U 59.75 (open 63.25) · ML +447.5 / -625 · Utah State 82% no-vig · model vs market +11.6 pts, +14 pct pts (Utah State view)
Utah State 96% · total 59.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Arkansas State21.7final 24Memphis31.6final 42Final: Arkansas State 24, Memphis 42. We projected Memphis 31.6-21.7 (74%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Memphis by 9.9
Total 53.3
DraftKings
Memphis -10.5
Total 52.5
Final Memphis by 18. Memphis beat the spread. 66 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Memphis -10.5 · O/U 52.25 (open 55.5) · ML +290 / -367.5 · Memphis 75% no-vig · model vs market -0.6 pts, -1 pct pts (Memphis view)
Memphis 74% · total 53.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Houston Christian8.6final 3
Rice39.5final 31Final: Houston Christian 3, Rice 31. We projected Rice 39.5-8.6 (98%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Rice by 30.9
Total 48.1
DraftKings
Rice -22.5
Total 47.5
Final Rice by 28. Rice beat the spread. 34 points — under the 47.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Rice -22.75 (open Rice -23.5) · O/U 47.5 · ML +1075 / -2200 · Rice 92% no-vig · model vs market +8.1 pts, +6 pct pts (Rice view)
Rice 98% · total 48.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Florida International22.7final 9
South Florida38.3final 19Final: Florida International 9, South Florida 19. We projected South Florida 38.3-22.7 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 15.6
Total 60.9
DraftKings
South Florida -14.5
Total 53.5
Final South Florida by 10. Florida International beat the spread. 28 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Florida -14.5 (open South Florida -12.5) · O/U 53.25 (open 54.5) · ML +405 / -555 · South Florida 81% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +4 pct pts (South Florida view)
South Florida 85% · total 60.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Eastern Kentucky9.8final 7Jacksonville State37.9final 49Final: Eastern Kentucky 7, Jacksonville State 49. We projected Jacksonville State 37.9-9.8 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Jacksonville State by 28.1
Total 47.7
DraftKings
Jacksonville State -22.5
Total 51.5
Final Jacksonville State by 42. Jacksonville State beat the spread. 56 points — over the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jacksonville State -22.25 (open Jacksonville State -20.25) · O/U 52.25 (open 53) · ML +950 / -1850 · Jacksonville State 91% no-vig · model vs market +5.9 pts, +6 pct pts (Jacksonville State view)
Jacksonville State 97% · total 47.7Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Charleston Southern10.3final 0
Georgia Southern40final 31Final: Charleston Southern 0, Georgia Southern 31. We projected Georgia Southern 40-10.3 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Georgia Southern by 29.7
Total 50.3
DraftKings
Georgia Southern -28.5
Total 51.5
Final Georgia Southern by 31. Georgia Southern beat the spread. 31 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Georgia Southern -28.25 (open Georgia Southern -25.5) · O/U 52 (open 51.5) · ML +1500 / -4500 · Georgia Southern 94% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +4 pct pts (Georgia Southern view)
Georgia Southern 97% · total 50.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
SE Louisiana17final 14
South Alabama37.1final 39Final: SE Louisiana 14, South Alabama 39. We projected South Alabama 37.1-17 (91%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
South Alabama by 20.1
Total 54
DraftKings
South Alabama -13.5
Total 53.5
Final South Alabama by 25. South Alabama beat the spread. 53 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Alabama -13.75 (open South Alabama -12.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.5) · ML +397.5 / -542.5 · South Alabama 81% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +10 pct pts (South Alabama view)
South Alabama 91% · total 54Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Sam Houston19.5final 21
Troy32.8final 24Final: Sam Houston 21, Troy 24. We projected Troy 32.8-19.5 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Troy by 13.2
Total 52.3
DraftKings
Troy -15.5
Total 52.5
Final Troy by 3. Sam Houston beat the spread. 45 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Troy -16 (open Troy -17.25) · O/U 52.75 (open 50.5) · ML +650 / -1075 · Troy 87% no-vig · model vs market -2.8 pts, -7 pct pts (Troy view)
Troy 81% · total 52.3Full preview → - FinalNBC
Western Michigan20.2final 12
Michigan28.2final 13Final: Western Michigan 12, Michigan 13. We projected Michigan 28.2-20.2 (70%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Michigan by 8
Total 48.4
DraftKings
Michigan -27.5
Total 50.5
Final Michigan by 1. Western Michigan beat the spread. 25 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan -27.5 (open Michigan -26.5) · O/U 50 (open 47.5) · ML +1650 / -6750 · Michigan 94% no-vig · model vs market -19.5 pts, -24 pct pts (Michigan view)
Michigan 70% · total 48.4Full preview → - FinalESPNU
UL Monroe21.7final 13
Mississippi State35.2final 62Final: UL Monroe 13, Mississippi State 62. We projected Mississippi State 35.2-21.7 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Mississippi State by 13.5
Total 56.9
DraftKings
Mississippi State -28.5
Total 54.5
Final Mississippi State by 49. Mississippi State beat the spread. 75 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mississippi State -28.5 · O/U 54.75 (open 55.5) · ML +2050 / -52000 · Mississippi State 95% no-vig · model vs market -15.0 pts, -14 pct pts (Mississippi State view)
Mississippi State 81% · total 56.9Full preview → - FinalACC Network/ACCNX
VMI6.6final 3
Virginia Tech47.4final 73Final: VMI 3, Virginia Tech 73. We projected Virginia Tech 47.4-6.6 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Virginia Tech by 40.7
Total 54
DraftKings
Virginia Tech -54.5
Total 60.5
Final Virginia Tech by 70. Virginia Tech beat the spread. 76 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia Tech -54.5 (open Virginia Tech -53) · O/U 61.25 (open 59.75) · model vs market -13.8 pts (Virginia Tech view)
Virginia Tech 100% · total 54Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Northwestern State5.6final 6
Louisiana Tech47.4final 80Final: Northwestern State 6, Louisiana Tech 80. We projected Louisiana Tech 47.4-5.6 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Louisiana Tech by 41.8
Total 53
DraftKings
Louisiana Tech -44.5
Total 56.5
Final Louisiana Tech by 74. Louisiana Tech beat the spread. 86 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisiana Tech -44.5 (open Louisiana Tech -43) · O/U 56.5 (open 54) · model vs market -2.7 pts (Louisiana Tech view)
Louisiana Tech 100% · total 53Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Florida Atlantic22.8final 21
Florida34final 66Final: Florida Atlantic 21, Florida 66. We projected Florida 34-22.8 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Florida by 11.2
Total 56.8
DraftKings
Florida -26.5
Total 59.5
Final Florida by 45. Florida beat the spread. 87 points — over the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida -26.5 (open Florida -25.5) · O/U 59.5 (open 56.5) · ML +1250 / -4450 · Florida 93% no-vig · model vs market -15.3 pts, -16 pct pts (Florida view)
Florida 77% · total 56.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Murray State13.7final 14
Middle Tennessee42.3final 38Final: Murray State 14, Middle Tennessee 38. We projected Middle Tennessee 42.3-13.7 (97%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Middle Tennessee by 28.6
Total 56
DraftKings
Middle Tennessee -22.5
Total 55.5
Final Middle Tennessee by 24. Middle Tennessee beat the spread. 52 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Middle Tennessee -22.5 (open Middle Tennessee -20.75) · O/U 55.75 (open 58.5) · ML +925 / -1800 · Middle Tennessee 91% no-vig · model vs market +6.1 pts, +6 pct pts (Middle Tennessee view)
Middle Tennessee 97% · total 56Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Utah Tech1.6final 7
BYU46.2final 63Final: Utah Tech 7, BYU 63. We projected BYU 46.2-1.6 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
BYU by 44.6
Total 47.7
DraftKings
BYU -50.5
Total 61.5
Final BYU by 56. BYU beat the spread. 70 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: BYU -50 (open BYU -49.5) · O/U 61.25 (open 57.75) · model vs market -5.4 pts (BYU view)
BYU 100% · total 47.7Full preview → - FinalBTN
Hampton5.9final 0
Maryland47.7final 62Final: Hampton 0, Maryland 62. We projected Maryland 47.7-5.9 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Maryland by 41.8
Total 53.5
DraftKings
Maryland -45.5
Total 56.5
Final Maryland by 62. Maryland beat the spread. 62 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Maryland -45.5 · O/U 56.25 (open 56) · model vs market -3.7 pts (Maryland view)
Maryland 100% · total 53.5Full preview → - FinalBTN
South Dakota State10.5final 18
Northwestern37.7final 34Final: South Dakota State 18, Northwestern 34. We projected Northwestern 37.7-10.5 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 27.2
Total 48.1
DraftKings
Northwestern -14
Total 49.5
Final Northwestern by 16. Northwestern beat the spread. 52 points — over the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northwestern -13.25 (open Northwestern -12.5) · O/U 49 (open 46.25) · ML +407.5 / -562.5 · Northwestern 81% no-vig · model vs market +14.0 pts, +15 pct pts (Northwestern view)
Northwestern 96% · total 48.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Lamar12.8final 7
Louisiana37.4final 38Final: Lamar 7, Louisiana 38. We projected Louisiana 37.4-12.8 (95%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Louisiana by 24.6
Total 50.1
DraftKings
Louisiana -20.5
Total 48.5
Final Louisiana by 31. Louisiana beat the spread. 45 points — under the 48.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Louisiana -20.25 (open Louisiana -19.25) · O/U 48.5 · ML +750 / -1300 · Louisiana 89% no-vig · model vs market +4.4 pts, +6 pct pts (Louisiana view)
Louisiana 95% · total 50.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Mercyhurst10.1final 14New Mexico State37.7final 51Final: Mercyhurst 14, New Mexico State 51. We projected New Mexico State 37.7-10.1 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
New Mexico State by 27.5
Total 47.8
DraftKings
New Mexico State -29.5
Total 52.5
Final New Mexico State by 37. New Mexico State beat the spread. 65 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Mexico State -29 (open New Mexico State -26.5) · O/U 52.25 (open 51.25) · ML +2200 / -8000 · New Mexico State 96% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, +1 pct pts (New Mexico State view)
New Mexico State 96% · total 47.8Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Northern Arizona11.1final 7
Arizona46.7final 35Final: Northern Arizona 7, Arizona 35. We projected Arizona 46.7-11.1 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 35.5
Total 57.8
DraftKings
Arizona -33.5
Total 59.5
Final Arizona by 28. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 42 points — under the 59.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arizona -32.5 (open Arizona -31.5) · O/U 59 (open 57.5) · ML +1800 / -8250 · Arizona 95% no-vig · model vs market +3.0 pts, +4 pct pts (Arizona view)
Arizona 99% · total 57.8Full preview → - FinalUSA Net
Portland State5.1final 20
San Diego State46.6final 53Final: Portland State 20, San Diego State 53. We projected San Diego State 46.6-5.1 (100%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
San Diego State by 41.5
Total 51.6
DraftKings
San Diego State -38.5
Total 61.5
Final San Diego State by 33. Portland State beat the spread. 73 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego State -39.5 · O/U 61.75 (open 59.75) · model vs market +2.0 pts (San Diego State view)
San Diego State 100% · total 51.6Full preview → - FinalABC
Clemson21.6final 10
LSU25.1final 51Final: Clemson 10, LSU 51. We projected LSU 25.1-21.6 (59%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
LSU by 3.5
Total 46.6
DraftKings
LSU -10
Total 48.5
Final LSU by 41. LSU beat the spread. 61 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: LSU -10 (open LSU -11.5) · O/U 49.25 (open 51.5) · ML +335 / -445 · LSU 78% no-vig · model vs market -6.5 pts, -19 pct pts (LSU view)
LSU 59% · total 46.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Morgan State6.7final 7
Arizona State43.3final 70Final: Morgan State 7, Arizona State 70. We projected Arizona State 43.3-6.7 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Arizona State by 36.6
Total 50
DraftKings
Arizona State -43.5
Total 52.5
Final Arizona State by 63. Arizona State beat the spread. 77 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arizona State -44.25 (open Arizona State -43.25) · O/U 52.5 · model vs market -7.6 pts (Arizona State view)
Arizona State 99% · total 50Full preview → - FinalCWUNLV29.2final 21Hawai'i30.9final 6
Final: UNLV 21, Hawai'i 6. We projected Hawai'i 30.9-29.2 (54%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Hawai'i by 1.7
Total 60.1
DraftKings
UNLV -2.5
Total 55.5
Final UNLV by 15. UNLV beat the spread. 27 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -2.75 (open UNLV -1.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 58.5) · ML -146 / +125 · Hawai'i 43% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +12 pct pts (Hawai'i view)
Hawai'i 54% · total 60.1Full preview → - FinalFS1
Central Michigan20.6final 7
New Mexico28.6final 38Final: Central Michigan 7, New Mexico 38. We projected New Mexico 28.6-20.6 (70%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
New Mexico by 8
Total 49.1
DraftKings
New Mexico -11.5
Total 47.5
Final New Mexico by 31. New Mexico beat the spread. 45 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Mexico -11.25 (open New Mexico -12.5) · O/U 47.25 (open 49) · ML +370 / -507.5 · New Mexico 80% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, -10 pct pts (New Mexico view)
New Mexico 70% · total 49.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Mississippi Valley State11.9final 0Sacramento State47.5final 52Final: Mississippi Valley State 0, Sacramento State 52. We projected Sacramento State 47.5-11.9 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Sacramento State by 35.6
Total 59.4
DraftKings
Sacramento State -38.5
Total 56.5
Final Sacramento State by 52. Sacramento State beat the spread. 52 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Sacramento State -38.5 (open Sacramento State -35.5) · O/U 56.5 · model vs market -2.9 pts (Sacramento State view)
Sacramento State 99% · total 59.4Full preview → - FinalESPN
UCLA25.3final 45
California29.2final 24Final: UCLA 45, California 24. We projected California 29.2-25.3 (60%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
California by 3.9
Total 54.5
DraftKings
UCLA -2.5
Total 53.5
Final UCLA by 21. UCLA beat the spread. 69 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -2.5 (open California -2.5) · O/U 53.5 · ML -136 / +115 · California 45% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +15 pct pts (California view)
California 60% · total 54.5Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Western Kentucky26.8final 14
Nevada23.6final 49Final: Western Kentucky 14, Nevada 49. We projected Western Kentucky 26.8-23.6 (58%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Western Kentucky by 3.2
Total 50.4
DraftKings
Western Kentucky -1.5
Total 51.5
Final Nevada by 35. Nevada beat the spread. 63 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Kentucky -0.25 (open Western Kentucky -4.25) · O/U 51.5 (open 53.5) · ML -126 / +6 · Nevada 47% no-vig · model vs market -2.9 pts, -5 pct pts (Nevada view)
Western Kentucky 58% · total 50.4Full preview → - FinalNBC
Washington State19.9final 10
Washington29.3final 24Final: Washington State 10, Washington 24. We projected Washington 29.3-19.9 (73%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Washington by 9.4
Total 49.2
DraftKings
Washington -23.5
Total 51.5
Final Washington by 14. Washington State beat the spread. 34 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Washington -23.25 (open Washington -21.5) · O/U 51.25 (open 50.5) · ML +1150 / -2500 · Washington 92% no-vig · model vs market -13.8 pts, -19 pct pts (Washington view)
Washington 73% · total 49.2Full preview → - FinalNeutral site
Wisconsin17.4final 13
Notre Dame30.7final 41Final: Wisconsin 13, Notre Dame 41. We projected Notre Dame 30.7-17.4 (81%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 13.3
Total 48.1
DraftKings
Notre Dame -21
Total 45.5
Final Notre Dame by 28. Notre Dame beat the spread. 54 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Notre Dame -20.75 (open Notre Dame -16.5) · O/U 46 (open 47) · ML +1000 / -2150 · Notre Dame 91% no-vig · model vs market -7.4 pts, -11 pct pts (Notre Dame view)
Notre Dame 81% · total 48.1Full preview → - FinalNeutral site
Louisville27.7final 38
Ole Miss31.8final 41Final: Louisville 38, Ole Miss 41. We projected Ole Miss 31.8-27.7 (61%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Ole Miss by 4.1
Total 59.5
DraftKings
Ole Miss -6.5
Total 54.5
Final Ole Miss by 3. Louisville beat the spread. 79 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ole Miss -6.5 (open Ole Miss -8.5) · O/U 54.75 (open 52.5) · ML +215 / -264 · Ole Miss 70% no-vig · model vs market -2.4 pts, -9 pct pts (Ole Miss view)
Ole Miss 61% · total 59.5Full preview → - FinalESPN
SMU27final 27Florida State27.9final 24Final: SMU 27, Florida State 24. We projected Florida State 27.9-27 (52%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Florida State by 0.9
Total 54.9
DraftKings
SMU -3
Total 52.5
Final SMU by 3. The spread landed exactly on the number. 51 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -3 (open SMU -2.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 52.5) · ML -162.5 / +137.5 · Florida State 41% no-vig · model vs market +3.9 pts, +12 pct pts (Florida State view)
Florida State 52% · total 54.9Full preview →
How these numbers are made
Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.
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