Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Virginia Tech 47.4, VMI 6.6 at Lane Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Virginia Tech wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 40.7 points and 54 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
VMI is 0-1, scoring 10 and allowing 38 points per game (-28 per game). Virginia Tech has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
VMI plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Virginia Tech's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Virginia Tech by 18 and Virginia Tech by 63 about 80% of the time.
Virginia Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Virginia Tech by about 38.6. The game is on ACC Network/ACCNX.
Result: VMI 3, Virginia Tech 73. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 29.3 points and the total by 22.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (VMI / Virginia Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Virginia Tech -53 → Virginia Tech -54.5 | 59.75 → 61.25 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Virginia Tech -50.5 → Virginia Tech -54.5 | 57.5 → 60.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Virginia Tech -55.5 → Virginia Tech -54.5 | 62 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Virginia Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Virginia Tech -40.5 | 54.0 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Virginia Tech -54.5 | 61.3 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Virginia Tech -52.5 | 60.8 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Virginia Tech win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Virginia Tech -40.7 · market Virginia Tech -54.5 · difference -13.8 pts (Virginia Tech view)
- Total
- model 54.0 · market 61.25 · difference -7.2
Model margin is 13.8 pts more toward VMI than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | VMI 6.6, Virginia Tech 47.4 | Virginia Tech 100%right winner | 29.3 | 22.0 |
| New formula | VMI -0.9, Virginia Tech 52.0 | Virginia Tech 100%right winner | 17.1 | 24.9 |
Final: VMI 3, Virginia Tech 73. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
VMI vs Virginia Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | VMI | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.9 | 21.4#114 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.6 | 30.2#107 |
| Yards per play | 5.16 | 5.62#91 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.10 | 6.17#105 |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.3 | 198.2#29 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.1 | 154.4#124 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 224.3 | 167.3#79 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 265.6 | 219.9#72 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.00#68 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 0.50#133 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.42#111 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 2.25#103 |
| Stat | VMI | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.02#74 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.12#127 |
| Success rate | 34.3% | 41.1%#91 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.6% | 46.0%#125 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7% | 11.7%#89 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 13.5%#111 |
| Havoc rate | 10.0% | 10.4%#121 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1% | 11.5%#52 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.32 | 4.09#51 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 4.66#131 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | own 28#117 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 31#113 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.6 | 62.8#110 |
| Stat | VMI | Virginia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.17#9 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.16#126 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.01#76 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29 | +0.24#132 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.8% | 47.8%#22 |
| Passing success rate | 35.8% | 32.6%#132 |
| Run stuff rate | 25.0% | 14.3%#16 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7% | 26.1%#117 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.7% | 34.8%#123 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.3% | 40.7%#74 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.4% | 47.9%#130 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.8% | 64.7%#47 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5% | 65.4%#106 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: VMI schedule · Virginia Tech schedule · all Week 1 projections
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