2026 schedule
VMI Keydets
2026 season so far
VMI is 0-8 against the 71st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 8 and allowing 41.3 points per game (-33.3 per game).
VMI plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Chattanooga in Week 9. We project VMI 3, Chattanooga 41 — VMI wins 1% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Idaho State Bengals
1-0 · SOS #124
Loss 10-38
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 19.7
Total 55.7
DraftKings
IDST -34.5
Total 53.5
Final Idaho State by 28. VMI beat the spread. 48 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -34.5 · O/U 53.5 (open 60.5) · model vs market -14.8 pts (Idaho State view)
ESPN+ ICCU Dome - at
Virginia Tech Hokies
1-0 · SOS #114
Loss 3-73
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Virginia Tech by 40.8
Total 54
DraftKings
VT -54.5
Total 60.5
Final Virginia Tech by 70. Virginia Tech beat the spread. 76 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Virginia Tech -54.5 (open Virginia Tech -53) · O/U 61.25 (open 59.75) · model vs market -13.7 pts (Virginia Tech view)
ACC Network/ACCNX Lane Stadium - vs
Bucknell Bison
1-2 · SOS #116
Loss 3-14
Week 2
Our number· pregame
VMI by 1.7
Total 53.7
DraftKings
BUCK -8.5
Total 47.5
Final Bucknell by 11. Bucknell beat the spread. 17 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Bucknell -8.5 (open Bucknell -10.5) · O/U 47.5 · ML -327 / +248 · VMI 27% no-vig · model vs market +10.2 pts, +27 pct pts (VMI view)
ESPN+ Foster Stadium - at
Davidson Wildcats
2-2 · SOS #172
Loss 24-27
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Davidson by 0.8
Total 49.2
DraftKings
VMI -4
Total 42.5
Final Davidson by 3. Davidson beat the spread. 51 points — over the 42.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: VMI -4 (open VMI -3) · O/U 42.5 · ML -156 / +125 · Davidson 42% no-vig · model vs market +4.8 pts, +10 pct pts (Davidson view)
ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) - at
Samford Bulldogs
1-3 · SOS #81
Loss 7-45
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Samford by 13.8
Total 47.6
DraftKings
SAM -15.5
Total 46.5
Final Samford by 38. Samford beat the spread. 52 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Samford -15.5 (open Samford -18.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 48.5) · ML +514 / -810 · Samford 85% no-vig · model vs market -1.7 pts, -3 pct pts (Samford view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 84°F, Wind 7 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBHM)ESPN+ Seibert Stadium - vs
Mercer Bears
4-2 · SOS #131
Loss 3-54
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Mercer by 26.7
Total 50.9
DraftKings
MER -34.5
Total 48.5
Final Mercer by 51. Mercer beat the spread. 57 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Mercer -34.5 (open Mercer -35.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 50.5) · model vs market +7.8 pts (VMI view)
Game-time weather: Rain, 51°F, Wind 5 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHSP)ESPN+ Foster Stadium - at
Wofford Terriers
5-3 · SOS #120
Loss 14-41
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Wofford by 28.8
Total 46.8
DraftKings
WOF -30.5
Total 46.5
Final Wofford by 27. VMI beat the spread. 55 points — over the 46.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wofford -30.5 (open Wofford -28.5) · O/U 46.5 · model vs market -1.7 pts (Wofford view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 14 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSPA)ESPN+ Gibbs Stadium - vs
East Tennessee State Buccaneers
6-2 · SOS #113
Loss 0-38
Week 8
Our number· pregame
East Tennessee State by 36.4
Total 54.8
Book line
Not posted
Final East Tennessee State by 38. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: 51°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHSP)ESPN+ Foster Stadium - at
Chattanooga Mocs
5-3 · SOS #89
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 3-41 · 1%
Our number
Chattanooga by 38
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 70°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Finley Stadium - at
Tennessee Tech Golden Eagles
7-1 · SOS #94
Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 4-50 · 0%
Our number
Tennessee Tech by 46
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Tucker Stadium - vs
The Citadel Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #10
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 14-36 · 8%
Our number
The Citadel by 22
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Foster Stadium - vs
Furman Paladins
2-6 · SOS #21
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 9-35 · 5%
Our number
Furman by 26
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Foster Stadium
Times shown in your local time
VMI Keydets stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-56.5
Adj. offense
-2.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
53.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 8.0 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 41.3 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 3.75 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 7.38 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 138.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 64.4 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 227.4 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 278.4 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.88 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.63 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.38 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.13 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.22 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.24 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 29.4% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 51.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 6.5% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 16.2% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 10.8% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 19.2% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.13 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.26 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 11 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 54.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.18 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.31 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.24 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.24 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 27.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 23.3% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 26.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 17.4% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.2% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 26.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 38.7% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 42.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 64.8% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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