Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected VMI 27.7, Bucknell 26 at Foster Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: VMI wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.7 points and 53.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Bucknell is 0-2, scoring 15 and allowing 26 points per game (-11 per game). VMI is 0-2, scoring 6.5 and allowing 55.5 points per game (-49 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bucknell by 21 and VMI by 24 about 80% of the time.
VMI gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Bucknell would be favoured by 0.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Bucknell 14, VMI 3. Bucknell won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 12.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Bucknell / VMI) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Bucknell -10.5 → Bucknell -8.5 | 47.5 | -327 / +248 |
| DraftKings | Bucknell -10.5 → Bucknell -8.5 | 47.5 | -327 / +248 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | VMI win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | VMI -1.5 | 53.6 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Bucknell -8.5 | 47.5 | 27% |
| Blended projection | Bucknell -7 | 48.8 | 32% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- VMI win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 27% · difference +27 pts
- Margin
- model VMI -1.7 · market Bucknell -8.5 · difference +10.2 pts (VMI view)
- Total
- model 53.6 · market 47.5 · difference +6.1
Model margin is 10.2 pts more toward VMI than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Bucknell 26.0, VMI 27.7 | VMI 54%wrong winner | 12.7 | 36.6 |
| New formula | Bucknell 31.6, VMI 23.9 | Bucknell 69%right winner | 3.3 | 38.5 |
Final: Bucknell 14, VMI 3. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Bucknell vs VMI: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Bucknell | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.1 | 15.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.1 | 37.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.53 | 5.16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.58 | 7.10 |
| Rushing yards per game | 136.8 | 116.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 206.7 | 196.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 203.3 | 224.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 228.7 | 265.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 0.67 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.42 | 2.75 |
| Stat | Bucknell | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | -0.08 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 39.0% | 34.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.0% | 47.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 9.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.9% | 14.2% |
| Havoc rate | 10.4% | 10.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.8% | 14.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.78 | 2.32 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10 | 4.13 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.2 | 60.6 |
| Stat | Bucknell | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.29 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.6% | 31.8% |
| Passing success rate | 41.1% | 35.8% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.0% | 25.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4% | 26.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.8% | 35.7% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1% | 29.3% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 46.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 51.5% | 47.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.8% | 62.5% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bucknell schedule · VMI schedule · all Week 2 projections
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