Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Davidson 25, VMI 24.2 at Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) in Week 3. That is a genuine toss-up: Davidson wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.8 points and 49.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
VMI is 0-3, scoring 5.3 and allowing 41.7 points per game (-36.4 per game). Davidson is 1-2, scoring 21 and allowing 31 points per game (-10 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between VMI by 22 and Davidson by 23 about 80% of the time.
Davidson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field VMI would be favoured by 1.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: VMI 24, Davidson 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.2 points and the total by 1.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (VMI / Davidson) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | VMI -3 → VMI -4 | 42.5 | -156 / +125 |
| DraftKings | VMI -3 → VMI -4 | 42.5 | -156 / +125 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Davidson win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Davidson -1 | 49.1 | 52% |
| Market consensus | VMI -4 | 42.5 | 42% |
| Blended projection | VMI -3 | 44.3 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Davidson win probability
- model 52% · market (no-vig) 42% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Davidson -0.8 · market VMI -4 · difference +4.8 pts (Davidson view)
- Total
- model 49.1 · market 42.5 · difference +6.6
Model margin is 4.8 pts more toward Davidson than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | VMI 24.2, Davidson 25.0 | Davidson 52%right winner | 2.2 | 1.9 |
| New formula | VMI 23.1, Davidson 30.1 | Davidson 68%right winner | 4.0 | 2.1 |
Final: VMI 24, Davidson 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
VMI vs Davidson: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | VMI | Davidson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 15.9 | 18.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.6 | 39.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.16 | 5.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.10 | 7.09 |
| Rushing yards per game | 116.3 | 133.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.1 | 190.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 224.3 | 246.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 265.6 | 237.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.67 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75 | 2.58 |
| Stat | VMI | Davidson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.08 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 34.3% | 37.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.6% | 52.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.7% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.2% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 10.0% | 8.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.32 | 3.24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.13 | 2.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.6 | 63.4 |
| Stat | VMI | Davidson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.29 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 31.8% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 35.8% | 36.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.0% | 20.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.7% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.7% | 36.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 29.3% | 36.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.4% | 48.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.8% | 46.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.5% | 50.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: VMI schedule · Davidson schedule · all Week 3 projections
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