2026 schedule
Davidson Wildcats
2026 season so far
Davidson is 3-5 against the 171st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.9 and allowing 37.5 points per game (-13.6 per game).
Davidson plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at St. Thomas in Week 9. We project Davidson 16, St. Thomas 47 — Davidson wins 2% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Concord Mountain Lions
1-0 · SOS #180
Loss 35-41
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Concord by 6.6
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
Final Concord by 6. 76 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - vs
Elon Phoenix
2-0 · SOS #151
Loss 0-38
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Elon by 11.9
Total 56.3
DraftKings
ELON -32.5
Total 58.5
Final Elon by 38. Elon beat the spread. 38 points — under the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Elon -32.5 (open Elon -31.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 57.5) · model vs market +20.6 pts (Davidson view)
ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) - vs
Dickinson (PA) Red Devils
1-1 · SOS #181
Win 28-14
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Dickinson (PA) by 7.2
Total 54.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Davidson by 14. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) - vs
VMI Keydets
0-4 · SOS #71
Win 27-24
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Davidson by 0.8
Total 49.2
DraftKings
VMI -4
Total 42.5
Final Davidson by 3. Davidson beat the spread. 51 points — over the 42.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: VMI -4 (open VMI -3) · O/U 42.5 · ML -156 / +125 · Davidson 42% no-vig · model vs market +4.8 pts, +10 pct pts (Davidson view)
ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - vs
Drake Bulldogs
1-3 · SOS #112
Loss 32-51
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Drake by 9.5
Total 57.5
DraftKings
DRKE -11.5
Total 58.5
Final Drake by 19. Drake beat the spread. 83 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Drake -11.5 (open Drake -12.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 53.5) · ML -433 / +316 · Davidson 23% no-vig · model vs market +2.0 pts, +4 pct pts (Davidson view)
Game-time weather: 79°F, Wind 7 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KJQF)ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC)Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game, our total below the book: missed · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49% - at
San Diego Toreros
2-3 · SOS #93
Loss 14-63
Week 5
Our number· pregame
San Diego by 15.5
Total 63.1
DraftKings
USD -18.5
Total 62.5
Final San Diego by 49. San Diego beat the spread. 77 points — over the 62.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego -18.5 (open San Diego -14.5) · O/U 62.5 (open 63.5) · ML +535 / -860 · San Diego 85% no-vig · model vs market -3.0 pts, -1 pct pts (San Diego view)
Game-time weather: 103°F, Wind 1 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (E9873)ESPN+ Torero StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Presbyterian Blue Hose
3-3 · SOS #145
Loss 21-38
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Presbyterian by 18.8
Total 64.2
DraftKings
PRES -14.5
Total 56.5
Final Presbyterian by 17. Presbyterian beat the spread. 59 points — over the 56.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Presbyterian -14.5 (open Presbyterian -15.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 57.5) · ML +470 / -720 · Presbyterian 83% no-vig · model vs market +4.3 pts, +6 pct pts (Presbyterian view)
Game-time weather: Rain, 61°F, Wind 9 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLUX)ESPN+ Bailey Memorial StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Morehead State Eagles
1-6 · SOS #165
Win 34-31
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Morehead State by 2
Total 65
DraftKings
MORE -1.5
Total 57.5
Final Davidson by 3. Davidson beat the spread. 65 points — over the 57.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Morehead State -1.5 (open Davidson -1.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 56.5) · ML -116 / -107 · Davidson 49% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -4 pct pts (Davidson view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 60°F, Wind 8 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRUQ)ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hitPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game: Record 30 hits, 30 misses (50% hit rate) over 60 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game: missed · Under · high total, close game → went under 26 of 38 since week 3 · base 54% - at
St. Thomas Tommies
6-2 · SOS #127
Sat, Oct 31, 6:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 16-47 · 2%
Our number
St. Thomas by 31
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 52°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 43% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 8:35 AM EDTO'Shaughnessy StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Stetson Hatters
1-7 · SOS #110
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 32-32 · 51%
Our number
dead even
Total 64
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC)ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Dayton Flyers
6-1 · SOS #159
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 14-42 · 4%
Our number
Dayton by 28
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Welcome StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games - vs
Marist Red Foxes
4-4 · SOS #154
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 20-33 · 19%
Our number
Marist by 13
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC)
Times shown in your local time
Davidson Wildcats stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-44.4
Adj. offense
6.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
51.3
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 23.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 37.5 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.42 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.53 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 128.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 248.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 211.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 227.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.38 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.50 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.88 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.88 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.03 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.23 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 34.4% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 49.0% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.5% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 15.4% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.1% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 16.6% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.67 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.02 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.05 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.29 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.18 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 37.3% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 38.3% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 24.3% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 24.0% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 38.6% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 33.9% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 46.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 43.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 57.6% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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