Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Elon 34.1, Davidson 22.2 at Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Elon wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 56.2 combined points.
Elon is 1-0, scoring 42 and allowing 7 points per game (+35 per game). Davidson is 0-1, scoring 35 and allowing 41 points per game (-6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Elon by 34 and Davidson by 11 about 80% of the time.
Davidson gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Elon is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Elon 38, Davidson 0. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.1 points and the total by 18.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Elon / Davidson) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Elon -31.5 → Elon -32.5 | 57.5 → 58.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Elon -31.5 → Elon -32.5 | 57.5 → 58.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Davidson win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Elon -12 | 56.2 | 22% |
| Market consensus | Elon -32.5 | 58.5 | 1% |
| Blended projection | Elon -29.5 | 58.5 | 2% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Davidson win probability
- model 22% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Elon -11.9 · market Elon -32.5 · difference +20.6 pts (Davidson view)
- Total
- model 56.2 · market 58.5 · difference -2.3
Model margin is 20.6 pts more toward Davidson than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Elon 34.1, Davidson 22.2 | Elon 78%right winner | 26.1 | 18.2 |
| New formula | Elon 35.6, Davidson 23.7 | Elon 76%right winner | 26.2 | 21.3 |
Final: Elon 38, Davidson 0. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Elon vs Davidson: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Elon | Davidson |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.8 | 18.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8 | 39.6 |
| Yards per play | 5.88 | 5.10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.61 | 7.09 |
| Rushing yards per game | 188.9 | 133.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 183.6 | 190.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.0 | 246.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 231.7 | 237.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 2.83 | 1.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.83 | 2.58 |
| Stat | Elon | Davidson |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.00 | +0.18 |
| Success rate | 39.3% | 37.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.7% | 52.0% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3% | 10.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9% | 16.1% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 8.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.0% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.09 | 3.24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.94 | 2.81 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3 | 63.4 |
| Stat | Elon | Davidson |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.23 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.5% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 36.1% | 36.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.9% | 20.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.0% | 27.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.9% | 36.0% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1% | 36.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.5% | 48.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.2% | 46.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 47.9% | 50.8% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Elon schedule · Davidson schedule · all Week 1 projections
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