2026 schedule
Elon Phoenix
2026 season so far
Elon is 4-4 against the 151st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 19.5 points per game (+3.9 per game).
Elon plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at North Carolina A&T in Week 9. We project Elon 30, North Carolina A&T 19 — Elon wins 77% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Glenville State Pioneers
0-1 · SOS #147
Win 42-7
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Elon by 8.8
Total 52.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Elon by 35. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Rhodes Stadium - at
Davidson Wildcats
0-2 · SOS #171
Win 38-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Elon by 11.9
Total 56.3
DraftKings
ELON -32.5
Total 58.5
Final Elon by 38. Elon beat the spread. 38 points — under the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Elon -32.5 (open Elon -31.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 57.5) · model vs market +20.6 pts (Davidson view)
ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC) - at
Rhode Island Rams
2-1 · SOS #88
Loss 10-31
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Rhode Island by 4.6
Total 47.8
DraftKings
URI -8.5
Total 48.5
Final Rhode Island by 21. Rhode Island beat the spread. 41 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Rhode Island -8.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +221 / -288 · Rhode Island 70% no-vig · model vs market -3.9 pts, -9 pct pts (Rhode Island view)
Centreville Bank StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - vs
Sacred Heart Pioneers
0-3 · SOS #149
Win 24-21
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Elon by 8.7
Total 46.3
DraftKings
ELON -11.5
Total 46.5
Final Elon by 3. Sacred Heart beat the spread. 45 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Elon -11.5 (open Elon -15.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 49.5) · ML +365 / -517 · Elon 80% no-vig · model vs market -2.8 pts, -8 pct pts (Elon view)
Rhodes StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - vs
Maine Black Bears
1-4 · SOS #63
Win 43-17
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Elon by 11.9
Total 45.9
DraftKings
ELON -5.5
Total 44.5
Final Elon by 26. Elon beat the spread. 60 points — over the 44.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Elon -5.5 (open Elon -6.5) · O/U 44.5 · ML +165 / -209 · Elon 64% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +14 pct pts (Elon view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 10 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBUY)Rhodes StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - at
New Hampshire Wildcats
2-4 · SOS #77
Loss 23-30
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Elon by 9.3
Total 49.3
DraftKings
ELON -7.5
Total 45.5
Final New Hampshire by 7. New Hampshire beat the spread. 53 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Elon -7.5 (open Elon -10.5) · O/U 45.5 (open 44.5) · ML -313 / +239 · New Hampshire 28% no-vig · model vs market -1.8 pts, -1 pct pts (New Hampshire view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind 3 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAW)Wildcat Stadium (NH)Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Wofford Terriers
4-3 · SOS #120
Loss 0-16
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Elon by 6
Total 49
DraftKings
ELON -3.5
Total 46.5
Final Wofford by 16. Wofford beat the spread. 16 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Elon -3.5 (open Elon -4) · O/U 46.5 · ML +128 / -159 · Elon 58% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +7 pct pts (Elon view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 66°F, Wind 9 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBUY)Rhodes StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit - at
Stanford Cardinal
3-4 · SOS #14
Loss 7-34
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Stanford by 11.5
Total 49.1
DraftKings
STAN -33.5
Total 55.5
Final Stanford by 27. Elon beat the spread. 41 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Stanford -33.5 (open Stanford -35.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 56.5) · model vs market -22.0 pts (Stanford view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind 7 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPAO)ACCNX Stanford StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitNon-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on) - at
North Carolina A&T Aggies
3-5 · SOS #118
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-19 · 77%
Our number
Elon by 11
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 69°F, Wind 10 mph E, 1% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTTruist StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Hampton Pirates
1-7 · SOS #141
Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 35-13 · 93%
Our number
Elon by 22
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Rhodes StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Campbell Fighting Camels
7-1 · SOS #109
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 25-26 · 49%
Our number
Campbell by 1
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Rhodes StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games - at
Towson Tigers
0-8 · SOS #37
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 26-24 · 56%
Our number
Elon by 2
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Johnny Unitas StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Elon Phoenix stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-21.7
Adj. offense
13.5
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
35.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 23.4 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 19.5 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.92 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.57 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 186.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 190.4 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 118.5 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 182.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.50 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.13 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.63 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.07 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.02 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 39.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.2% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.3% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.8% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.39 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.38 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 8 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.02 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.13 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.05 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 45.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 31.6% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.5% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 24.9% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.0% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 27.7% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 25.8% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 52.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 54.2% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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