Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Elon 28.9, Maine 17 at Rhodes Stadium in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Elon wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 45.9 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Maine is 1-3, scoring 13.5 and allowing 29.5 points per game (-16 per game). Elon is 3-1, scoring 28.5 and allowing 14.8 points per game (+13.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Maine by 11 and Elon by 34 about 80% of the time.
Elon gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Elon by about 9.8.
Result: Maine 17, Elon 43. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.1 points and the total by 14.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Maine / Elon) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Elon -6.5 → Elon -5.5 | 44.5 | +165 / -209 |
| DraftKings | Elon -6.5 → Elon -5.5 | 44.5 | +165 / -209 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Elon win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Elon -12 | 45.9 | 78% |
| Market consensus | Elon -5.5 | 44.5 | 64% |
| Blended projection | Elon -6.5 | 45.8 | 67% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Elon win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) 64% · difference +14 pts
- Margin
- model Elon -11.9 · market Elon -5.5 · difference +6.4 pts (Elon view)
- Total
- model 45.9 · market 44.5 · difference +1.4
Model margin is 6.4 pts more toward Elon than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Maine 17.0, Elon 28.9 | Elon 78%right winner | 14.1 | 14.1 |
| New formula | Maine 16.8, Elon 29.4 | Elon 80%right winner | 13.5 | 13.8 |
Final: Maine 17, Elon 43. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Maine vs Elon: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Maine | Elon |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.2 | 28.8 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3 | 24.8 |
| Yards per play | 5.55 | 5.88 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.50 | 5.61 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.8 | 188.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 173.4 | 183.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 147.2 | 139.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.8 | 231.7 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92 | 0.83 |
| Sacks per game | 2.42 | 2.83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33 | 2.83 |
| Stat | Maine | Elon |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.00 |
| Success rate | 39.8% | 39.3% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 40.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 14.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 10.9% |
| Havoc rate | 12.4% | 11.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2% | 14.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.49 | 4.09 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12 | 2.94 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.7 | 63.3 |
| Stat | Maine | Elon |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1% | 44.5% |
| Passing success rate | 40.9% | 36.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.5% | 21.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8% | 28.0% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9% | 29.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.5% | 38.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.1% | 38.5% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.9% | 58.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.6% | 47.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Maine schedule · Elon schedule · all Week 4 projections
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