2026 schedule
Maine Black Bears
2026 season so far
Maine is 1-7 against the 63rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 13.4 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-16.2 per game).
Maine plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Rhode Island in Week 9. We project Maine 17, Rhode Island 32 — Maine wins 16% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
Towson Tigers
0-1 · SOS #37
Win 21-18
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Towson by 3.9
Total 50.5
DraftKings
TOW -2.5
Total 46.5
Final Maine by 3. Maine beat the spread. 39 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Towson -2.5 · O/U 46.5 · model vs market +1.4 pts (Towson view)
Johnny Unitas StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit - at
App State Mountaineers
1-0 · SOS #124
Loss 3-55
Week 1
Our number· pregame
App State by 25.9
Total 52.1
DraftKings
APP -21
Total 53.5
Final App State by 52. App State beat the spread. 58 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: App State -21 (open App State -18.5) · O/U 53.75 (open 53.5) · ML +787.5 / -1375 · App State 89% no-vig · model vs market +4.9 pts, +6 pct pts (App State view)
ESPN+ Kidd Brewer StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Merrimack Warriors
1-2 · SOS #66
Loss 14-23
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Maine by 8.3
Total 45.1
DraftKings
ME -10
Total 47.5
Final Merrimack by 9. Merrimack beat the spread. 37 points — under the 47.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Maine -10 · O/U 47.5 · ML +314 / -431 · Maine 77% no-vig · model vs market -1.7 pts, -6 pct pts (Maine view)
Harold Alfond Sports StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - at
Boston College Eagles
2-1 · SOS #61
Loss 16-22
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Boston College by 37.6
Total 47
DraftKings
BC -37.5
Total 54.5
Final Boston College by 6. Maine beat the spread. 38 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boston College -37.5 (open Boston College -38.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 53.5) · model vs market +0.1 pts (Boston College view)
ACCNX Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit - at
Elon Phoenix
4-1 · SOS #151
Loss 17-43
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Elon by 11.9
Total 45.9
DraftKings
ELON -5.5
Total 44.5
Final Elon by 26. Elon beat the spread. 60 points — over the 44.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Elon -5.5 (open Elon -6.5) · O/U 44.5 · ML +165 / -209 · Elon 64% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +14 pct pts (Elon view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 10 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBUY)Rhodes StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missedUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed - vs
Sacred Heart Pioneers
2-3 · SOS #149
Loss 16-24
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Sacred Heart by 3.7
Total 49.3
DraftKings
ME -2.5
Total 44.5
Final Sacred Heart by 8. Sacred Heart beat the spread. 40 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Maine -2.5 · O/U 44.5 (open 43.5) · ML +110 / -136 · Maine 55% no-vig · model vs market -6.2 pts, -14 pct pts (Maine view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind 14 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBGR)Harold Alfond Sports StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Bryant Bulldogs
5-2 · SOS #132
Loss 14-17
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Bryant by 1.1
Total 49.9
DraftKings
ME -1.5
Total 45.5
Final Bryant by 3. Bryant beat the spread. 31 points — under the 45.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Maine -1.5 (open Bryant -1.5) · O/U 45.5 (open 44.5) · ML +120 / -150 · Maine 57% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -10 pct pts (Maine view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 48°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBGR)Harold Alfond Sports StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hitRising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the openBounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: missed (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game - vs
Campbell Fighting Camels
7-1 · SOS #109
Loss 6-35
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Campbell by 5.7
Total 53.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Campbell by 29. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 55°F, Wind 3 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBGR)Harold Alfond Sports StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - at
Rhode Island Rams
4-4 · SOS #88
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 17-32 · 16%
Our number
Rhode Island by 15
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 54°F, Wind 8 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTCentreville Bank StadiumLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
UAlbany Great Danes
5-3 · SOS #106
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 16-30 · 19%
Our number
UAlbany by 14
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bob Ford Field at Tom & Mary Casey StadiumExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
New Hampshire Wildcats
2-7 · SOS #77
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 25-23 · 54%
Our number
Maine by 2
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Harold Alfond Sports StadiumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Maine Black Bears stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-33.0
Adj. offense
8.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
41.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 13.4 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 29.6 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 4.50 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.58 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 109.6 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 181.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 187.9 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 240.8 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.13 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.25 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.13 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.13 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.14 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.01 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 33.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.7% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 9.9% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.75 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.65 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 17 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 14 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.16 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.03 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 28.9% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 33.6% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 25.2% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 23.3% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.5% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 32.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.2% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 42.7% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 34.6% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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