Matchup analysis
Our model projects Rhode Island 32, Maine 17 at Centreville Bank Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: Rhode Island wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.3 points and 48.5 combined points.
Maine is 1-7 against the 46th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 13.4 and allowing 29.6 points per game (-16.2 per game). Rhode Island is 4-4 against the 76th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.5 and allowing 25.5 points per game (-1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Maine by 7 and Rhode Island by 38 about 80% of the time.
Rhode Island gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Rhode Island by about 13.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Maine vs Rhode Island: stat comparison
| Stat | Maine | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 13.4 | 24.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.6 | 25.5 |
| Yards per play | 4.50 | 5.46 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.58 | 5.68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 109.6 | 155.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 181.5 | 198.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.9 | 198.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 240.8 | 191.0 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13 | 1.25 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| Sacks per game | 2.13 | 2.38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.13 | 1.88 |
| Stat | Maine | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.14 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.03 |
| Success rate | 33.2% | 39.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7% | 42.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9% | 12.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.9% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5% | 15.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.75 | 4.24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.65 | 3.78 |
| Average starting field position | opp 17 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 14 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8 | 64.8 |
| Stat | Maine | Rhode Island |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11 | +0.09 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | -0.03 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.09 |
| Rushing success rate | 28.9% | 41.3% |
| Passing success rate | 33.6% | 34.3% |
| Run stuff rate | 25.2% | 19.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.3% | 28.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.5% | 30.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 32.0% | 43.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 36.2% | 41.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.7% | 64.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 34.6% | 65.5% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Maine schedule · Rhode Island schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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