Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected App State 39, Maine 13.1 at Kidd Brewer Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: App State wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 25.9 points and 52.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Maine is 1-0, scoring 21 and allowing 18 points per game (+3 per game). App State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Maine plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why App State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between App State by 3 and App State by 48 about 80% of the time.
App State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour App State by about 23.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Maine 3, App State 55. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.1 points and the total by 5.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Maine / App State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | App State -18.5 → App State -21 | 53.5 → 53.75 | +787.5 / -1375 |
| Bovada | App State -19.5 → App State -21 | 53.5 → 54 | +725 / -1300 |
| DraftKings | App State -17.5 → App State -21 | 53.5 | +850 / -1450 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | App State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | App State -26 | 52.1 | 96% |
| Market consensus | App State -21 | 53.8 | 89% |
| Blended projection | App State -22 | 54.2 | 93% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- App State win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 89% · difference +6 pts
- Margin
- model App State -25.9 · market App State -21 · difference +4.9 pts (App State view)
- Total
- model 52.1 · market 53.75 · difference -1.6
Model margin is 4.9 pts more toward App State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Maine 13.1, App State 39.0 | App State 96%right winner | 26.1 | 5.9 |
| New formula | Maine 16.7, App State 36.4 | App State 87%right winner | 32.3 | 4.9 |
Final: Maine 3, App State 55. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Maine vs App State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Maine | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.2 | 24.2#91 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3 | 29.8#101 |
| Yards per play | 5.55 | 5.61#92 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.50 | 5.89#78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 168.8 | 140.3#108 |
| Net passing yards per game | 173.4 | 255.1#39 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 147.2 | 162.1#70 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 192.8 | 259.9#126 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 1.62#125 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.92 | 1.23#50 |
| Sacks per game | 2.42 | 2.23#52 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33 | 2.08#91 |
| Stat | Maine | App State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.00#92 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.02#78 |
| Success rate | 39.8% | 41.2%#89 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.1% | 44.1%#99 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 11.9%#86 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 12.6%#79 |
| Havoc rate | 12.4% | 13.7%#38 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.2% | 11.8%#66 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.49 | 3.66#106 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12 | 4.08#95 |
| Average starting field position | opp 13 | own 28#122 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 12 | own 31#95 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.7 | 70.5#24 |
| Stat | Maine | App State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | -0.00#90 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.01#77 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.01#68 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.02#77 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1% | 43.3%#67 |
| Passing success rate | 40.9% | 40.5%#77 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.5% | 16.6%#42 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8% | 32.4%#43 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9% | 31.0%#90 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.5% | 35.1%#115 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.1% | 44.7%#111 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 42.9% | 57.9%#91 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.6% | 56.0%#43 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Maine schedule · App State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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