Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Sacred Heart 26.5, Maine 22.8 at Harold Alfond Sports Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Sacred Heart wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.7 points and 49.2 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Sacred Heart is 1-3, scoring 18.8 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-7.5 per game). Maine is 1-4, scoring 14.2 and allowing 32.2 points per game (-18 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Sacred Heart by 26 and Maine by 19 about 80% of the time.
Maine gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Sacred Heart is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Sacred Heart 24, Maine 16. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.3 points and the total by 9.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sacred Heart / Maine) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Maine -2.5 | 43.5 → 44.5 | +110 / -136 |
| DraftKings | Maine -2.5 | 43.5 → 44.5 | +110 / -136 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Maine win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Sacred Heart -3.5 | 49.2 | 40% |
| Market consensus | Maine -2.5 | 44.5 | 55% |
| Blended projection | Maine -1.5 | 46.0 | 54% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Maine win probability
- model 40% · market (no-vig) 55% · difference -14 pts
- Margin
- model Sacred Heart -3.7 · market Maine -2.5 · difference -6.2 pts (Maine view)
- Total
- model 49.2 · market 44.5 · difference +4.7
Model margin is 6.2 pts more toward Sacred Heart than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sacred Heart 26.5, Maine 22.8 | Sacred Heart 60%right winner | 4.3 | 9.2 |
| New formula | Sacred Heart 26.0, Maine 23.0 | Sacred Heart 58%right winner | 4.9 | 9.0 |
Final: Sacred Heart 24, Maine 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sacred Heart vs Maine: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.6 | 24.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.3 | 24.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.26 | 5.55 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.39 | 5.50 |
| Rushing yards per game | 235.8 | 168.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 161.6 | 173.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.5 | 147.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.5 | 192.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.40 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.60 | 0.92 |
| Sacks per game | 1.40 | 2.42 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.90 | 1.33 |
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.13 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 44.3% | 39.8% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.3% | 42.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 12.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.4% | 12.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.0% | 15.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 2.49 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.12 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.5 | 61.7 |
| Stat | Sacred Heart | Maine |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.06 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.9% | 41.1% |
| Passing success rate | 43.2% | 40.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9% | 22.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.1% | 30.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.6% | 28.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0% | 34.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.2% | 46.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 69.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sacred Heart schedule · Maine schedule · all Week 5 projections
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