Week 5 College Football Projections (2026)
Updated Oct 29, 2026
Week 5 of the 2026 college football season has 59 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Syracuse at UConn (0.1-point margin), the highest projected total is Louisville at NC State (65.5 points) and the lowest is Wyoming at North Dakota State (43.6). 11 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
59 games have finished so far: the model picked the winner in 49 of them (83%).
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Every FBS game
CSV download · Sports Pro- FinalCBSSN
Western Kentucky30.2final 13
New Mexico State26.6final 34Final: Western Kentucky 13, New Mexico State 34. We projected Western Kentucky 30.2-26.6 (59%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Western Kentucky by 3.6
Total 56.7
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico State by 21. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Western Kentucky 59% · total 56.7Full preview → - FinalESPN
North Texas31.9final 45
Tulsa26.2final 44Final: North Texas 45, Tulsa 44. We projected North Texas 31.9-26.2 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 5.7
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
Final North Texas by 1. 89 points. No book line was saved for this game.
North Texas 64% · total 58Full preview → - FinalESPN
Pittsburgh28.8final 35
Virginia Tech27final 33Final: Pittsburgh 35, Virginia Tech 33. We projected Pittsburgh 28.8-27 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Pittsburgh by 1.8
Total 55.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Pittsburgh by 2. 68 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Pittsburgh 55% · total 55.8Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Liberty28.8final 30
Delaware24.8final 14Final: Liberty 30, Delaware 14. We projected Liberty 28.8-24.8 (60%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Liberty by 4
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Liberty by 16. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Liberty 60% · total 53.6Full preview → - FinalFox
Penn State23.3final 13
Northwestern24.9final 34Final: Penn State 13, Northwestern 34. We projected Northwestern 24.9-23.3 (54%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 1.6
Total 48.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Northwestern by 21. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Northwestern 54% · total 48.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Memphis36final 59
Charlotte19.9final 8Final: Memphis 59, Charlotte 8. We projected Memphis 36-19.9 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Memphis by 16.1
Total 55.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Memphis by 51. 67 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Memphis 85% · total 55.9Full preview → - FinalESPN/Disney+
Notre Dame36final 37
North Carolina12.3final 26Final: Notre Dame 37, North Carolina 26. We projected Notre Dame 36-12.3 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 23.7
Total 48.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Notre Dame by 11. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Notre Dame 94% · total 48.3Full preview → - FinalABC
Alabama37.3final 56
Mississippi State27.4final 23Final: Alabama 56, Mississippi State 23. We projected Alabama 37.3-27.4 (74%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 9.9
Total 64.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama by 33. 79 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Alabama 74% · total 64.7Full preview → - FinalESPN2
UCF22.8final 17
Houston31.5final 27Final: UCF 17, Houston 27. We projected Houston 31.5-22.8 (71%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Houston by 8.7
Total 54.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Houston by 10. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Houston 71% · total 54.3Full preview → - FinalCW/ESPN Unlmtd
Boston College15.1final 16
SMU35.8final 25Final: Boston College 16, SMU 25. We projected SMU 35.8-15.1 (91%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
SMU by 20.7
Total 50.9
Book line
Not posted
Final SMU by 9. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SMU 91% · total 50.9Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Middle Tennessee17.7final 0
Kansas34.4final 55Final: Middle Tennessee 0, Kansas 55. We projected Kansas 34.4-17.7 (86%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Kansas by 16.7
Total 52.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Kansas by 55. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Kansas 86% · total 52.1Full preview → - FinalTNT
West Virginia23.3final 42
Iowa State32.4final 45Final: West Virginia 42, Iowa State 45. We projected Iowa State 32.4-23.3 (72%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Iowa State by 9.1
Total 55.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Iowa State by 3. 87 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Iowa State 72% · total 55.8Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Stanford19.8final 3
Wake Forest32final 57Final: Stanford 3, Wake Forest 57. We projected Wake Forest 32-19.8 (78%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Wake Forest by 12.1
Total 51.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Wake Forest by 54. 60 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wake Forest 78% · total 51.8Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Syracuse27final 42
UConn26.9final 41Final: Syracuse 42, UConn 41. We projected Syracuse 27-26.9 (50%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 53.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Syracuse by 1. 83 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Syracuse 50% · total 53.9Full preview → - FinalFox
Michigan24.2final 14
Minnesota24.3final 20Final: Michigan 14, Minnesota 20. We projected Minnesota 24.3-24.2 (50%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 48.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Minnesota by 6. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Minnesota 50% · total 48.5Full preview → - FinalCBS
Navy25.7final 9
Air Force30.6final 14Final: Navy 9, Air Force 14. We projected Air Force 30.6-25.7 (62%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Air Force by 4.9
Total 56.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Air Force by 5. 23 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Air Force 62% · total 56.2Full preview → - FinalBTN
Michigan State18.3final 3
Wisconsin26.6final 31Final: Michigan State 3, Wisconsin 31. We projected Wisconsin 26.6-18.3 (70%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Wisconsin by 8.3
Total 44.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Wisconsin by 28. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Wisconsin 70% · total 44.9Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Vanderbilt17.6final 14
Georgia41.2final 38Final: Vanderbilt 14, Georgia 38. We projected Georgia 41.2-17.6 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Georgia by 23.6
Total 58.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia by 24. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia 94% · total 58.7Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Western Michigan32.6final 20
Buffalo18.6final 17Final: Western Michigan 20, Buffalo 17. We projected Western Michigan 32.6-18.6 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Western Michigan by 14
Total 51.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Western Michigan by 3. 37 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Western Michigan 82% · total 51.2Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Toledo36.9final 39
Ball State21.2final 24Final: Toledo 39, Ball State 24. We projected Toledo 36.9-21.2 (84%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 15.7
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
Final Toledo by 15. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Toledo 84% · total 58Full preview → - FinalCBS
Ohio State30.6final 31
Iowa18.7final 14Final: Ohio State 31, Iowa 14. We projected Ohio State 30.6-18.7 (78%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 11.9
Total 49.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Ohio State by 17. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ohio State 78% · total 49.2Full preview → - FinalESPN
Auburn19.8final 14
Tennessee34.9final 24Final: Auburn 14, Tennessee 24. We projected Tennessee 34.9-19.8 (84%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Tennessee by 15.1
Total 54.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Tennessee by 10. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Tennessee 84% · total 54.8Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
California22.2final 31
UNLV27.4final 39Final: California 31, UNLV 39. We projected UNLV 27.4-22.2 (63%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
UNLV by 5.2
Total 49.5
Book line
Not posted
Final UNLV by 8. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UNLV 63% · total 49.5Full preview → - FinalACC Network
Louisville32.1final 28
NC State33.4final 31Final: Louisville 28, NC State 31. We projected NC State 33.4-32.1 (53%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
NC State by 1.3
Total 65.5
Book line
Not posted
Final NC State by 3. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
NC State 53% · total 65.5Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Virginia25.2final 7
Florida State26.5final 38Final: Virginia 7, Florida State 38. We projected Florida State 26.5-25.2 (53%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Florida State by 1.3
Total 51.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida State by 31. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Florida State 53% · total 51.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Samford16.8final 14
UAB33.6final 33Final: Samford 14, UAB 33. We projected UAB 33.6-16.8 (86%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
UAB by 16.8
Total 50.4
Book line
Not posted
Final UAB by 19. 47 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UAB 86% · total 50.4Full preview → - FinalCW
Wyoming10final 0
North Dakota State33.6final 28Final: Wyoming 0, North Dakota State 28. We projected North Dakota State 33.6-10 (94%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
North Dakota State by 23.6
Total 43.6
Book line
Not posted
Final North Dakota State by 28. 28 points. No book line was saved for this game.
North Dakota State 94% · total 43.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Akron22.2final 17
Central Michigan27.6final 41Final: Akron 17, Central Michigan 41. We projected Central Michigan 27.6-22.2 (64%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Central Michigan by 5.4
Total 49.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Central Michigan by 24. 58 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Central Michigan 64% · total 49.7Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Eastern Michigan22.6final 38
Massachusetts29.3final 14Final: Eastern Michigan 38, Massachusetts 14. We projected Massachusetts 29.3-22.6 (67%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Massachusetts by 6.7
Total 51.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Eastern Michigan by 24. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Massachusetts 67% · total 51.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Ohio34.4final 13
Kent State22.7final 10Final: Ohio 13, Kent State 10. We projected Ohio 34.4-22.7 (77%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Ohio by 11.7
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Ohio by 3. 23 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Ohio 77% · total 57Full preview →
- FinalESPN+
Bowling Green16.6final 24
Miami (OH)30.6final 20Final: Bowling Green 24, Miami (OH) 20. We projected Miami (OH) 30.6-16.6 (82%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Miami (OH) by 14
Total 47.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Bowling Green by 4. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Miami (OH) 82% · total 47.1Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Old Dominion26.3final 10
Georgia State28.9final 42Final: Old Dominion 10, Georgia State 42. We projected Georgia State 28.9-26.3 (57%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Georgia State by 2.6
Total 55.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia State by 32. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia State 57% · total 55.2Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Marshall20.3final 17
James Madison39.3final 45Final: Marshall 17, James Madison 45. We projected James Madison 39.3-20.3 (89%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
James Madison by 19
Total 59.5
Book line
Not posted
Final James Madison by 28. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
James Madison 89% · total 59.5Full preview → - FinalABC
Florida30.4final 17
Missouri27.2final 45Final: Florida 17, Missouri 45. We projected Florida 30.4-27.2 (58%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Florida by 3.2
Total 57.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri by 28. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Florida 58% · total 57.6Full preview → - FinalFS1
Maryland19final 23
Nebraska35.4final 48Final: Maryland 23, Nebraska 48. We projected Nebraska 35.4-19 (85%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Nebraska by 16.4
Total 54.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Nebraska by 25. 71 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Nebraska 85% · total 54.4Full preview → - FinalMW+
UTEP14.7final 7
New Mexico41.1final 61Final: UTEP 7, New Mexico 61. We projected New Mexico 41.1-14.7 (96%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
New Mexico by 26.3
Total 55.8
Book line
Not posted
Final New Mexico by 54. 68 points. No book line was saved for this game.
New Mexico 96% · total 55.8Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
Kentucky22.8final 35
South Carolina29.5final 34Final: Kentucky 35, South Carolina 34. We projected South Carolina 29.5-22.8 (67%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
South Carolina by 6.7
Total 52.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Kentucky by 1. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
South Carolina 67% · total 52.3Full preview → - FinalBTN
Purdue23.1final 24
Illinois39.8final 17Final: Purdue 24, Illinois 17. We projected Illinois 39.8-23.1 (86%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Illinois by 16.7
Total 62.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Purdue by 7. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Illinois 86% · total 62.9Full preview → - FinalUSA Net
Oregon State31.1final 56
Colorado State27.9final 26Final: Oregon State 56, Colorado State 26. We projected Oregon State 31.1-27.9 (58%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 3.2
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Oregon State by 30. 82 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Oregon State 58% · total 59Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Texas Southern18.8final 10
Florida Atlantic44.5final 66Final: Texas Southern 10, Florida Atlantic 66. We projected Florida Atlantic 44.5-18.8 (95%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Florida Atlantic by 25.7
Total 63.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida Atlantic by 56. 76 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Florida Atlantic 95% · total 63.2Full preview → - FinalESPN/Disney+
BYU28.6final 17
TCU23.3final 10Final: BYU 17, TCU 10. We projected BYU 28.6-23.3 (63%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
BYU by 5.2
Total 51.9
Book line
Not posted
Final BYU by 7. 27 points. No book line was saved for this game.
BYU 63% · total 51.9Full preview → - FinalESPN2
Arkansas18final 7
Texas A&M36.3final 34Final: Arkansas 7, Texas A&M 34. We projected Texas A&M 36.3-18 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Texas A&M by 18.3
Total 54.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas A&M by 27. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas A&M 88% · total 54.2Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UTSA36.4final 16
Rice22.2final 14Final: UTSA 16, Rice 14. We projected UTSA 36.4-22.2 (82%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
UTSA by 14.2
Total 58.6
Book line
Not posted
Final UTSA by 2. 30 points. No book line was saved for this game.
UTSA 82% · total 58.6Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Georgia Southern27.8final 31
Coastal Carolina24.7final 24Final: Georgia Southern 31, Coastal Carolina 24. We projected Georgia Southern 27.8-24.7 (58%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Georgia Southern by 3.1
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Georgia Southern by 7. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Georgia Southern 58% · total 52.5Full preview → - FinalESPN+
UL Monroe22final 35
South Alabama38.6final 52Final: UL Monroe 35, South Alabama 52. We projected South Alabama 38.6-22 (86%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
South Alabama by 16.6
Total 60.5
Book line
Not posted
Final South Alabama by 17. 87 points. No book line was saved for this game.
South Alabama 86% · total 60.5Full preview → - FinalABC
Miami35final 41
Clemson17.1final 13Final: Miami 41, Clemson 13. We projected Miami 35-17.1 (88%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Miami by 17.9
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
Final Miami by 28. 54 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Miami 88% · total 52Full preview → - FinalFox
Texas Tech33.5final 29
Colorado18.8final 7Final: Texas Tech 29, Colorado 7. We projected Texas Tech 33.5-18.8 (83%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Texas Tech by 14.7
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 22. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas Tech 83% · total 52.2Full preview → - FinalNBC
Washington23.7final 21
USC33.7final 25Final: Washington 21, USC 25. We projected USC 33.7-23.7 (74%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
USC by 10
Total 57.4
Book line
Not posted
Final USC by 4. 46 points. No book line was saved for this game.
USC 74% · total 57.4Full preview → - FinalCBSSN
Utah State16.5final 18
Boise State34.2final 37Final: Utah State 18, Boise State 37. We projected Boise State 34.2-16.5 (87%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Boise State by 17.7
Total 50.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Boise State by 19. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Boise State 87% · total 50.6Full preview → - FinalESPNU
Temple22.5final 17
South Florida33.4final 13Final: Temple 17, South Florida 13. We projected South Florida 33.4-22.5 (76%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
South Florida by 10.9
Total 55.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Temple by 4. 30 points. No book line was saved for this game.
South Florida 76% · total 55.9Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Army25.1final 29
Louisiana Tech27.2final 31Final: Army 29, Louisiana Tech 31. We projected Louisiana Tech 27.2-25.1 (55%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Louisiana Tech by 2.1
Total 52.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisiana Tech by 2. 60 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Louisiana Tech 55% · total 52.3Full preview → - FinalSEC Network
McNeese5.9final 14
LSU42.1final 63Final: McNeese 14, LSU 63. We projected LSU 42.1-5.9 (99%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
LSU by 36.2
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
Final LSU by 49. 77 points. No book line was saved for this game.
LSU 99% · total 48Full preview → - FinalBTN
Indiana38.9final 47
Rutgers19.4final 15Final: Indiana 47, Rutgers 15. We projected Indiana 38.9-19.4 (90%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Indiana by 19.5
Total 58.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Indiana by 32. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Indiana 90% · total 58.3Full preview → - FinalESPN+
Arkansas State22final 20
Louisiana29.7final 23Final: Arkansas State 20, Louisiana 23. We projected Louisiana 29.7-22 (69%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Louisiana by 7.7
Total 51.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisiana by 3. 43 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Louisiana 69% · total 51.6Full preview → - FinalUSA Net
Fresno State24.3final 26
Washington State23.3final 6Final: Fresno State 26, Washington State 6. We projected Fresno State 24.3-23.3 (53%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Fresno State by 1
Total 47.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Fresno State by 20. 32 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Fresno State 53% · total 47.6Full preview → - FinalESPN
Baylor22.6final 55
Arizona State30.4final 19Final: Baylor 55, Arizona State 19. We projected Arizona State 30.4-22.6 (69%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Arizona State by 7.8
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
Final Baylor by 36. 74 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Arizona State 69% · total 53Full preview → - FinalCW
Texas State31.5final 29
San Diego State27.3final 31Final: Texas State 29, San Diego State 31. We projected Texas State 31.5-27.3 (61%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Texas State by 4.2
Total 58.8
Book line
Not posted
Final San Diego State by 2. 60 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Texas State 61% · total 58.8Full preview → - FinalFox
Cincinnati23.1final 7
Arizona32.6final 34Final: Cincinnati 7, Arizona 34. We projected Arizona 32.6-23.1 (73%) — winner called correctly.
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 9.5
Total 55.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Arizona by 27. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Arizona 73% · total 55.7Full preview → - FinalMW+
San José State24.5final 20
Hawai'i26.8final 16Final: San José State 20, Hawai'i 16. We projected Hawai'i 26.8-24.5 (56%) — the model missed this one.
Our number· pregame
Hawai'i by 2.3
Total 51.2
Book line
Not posted
Final San José State by 4. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Hawai'i 56% · total 51.2Full preview →
How these numbers are made
Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.
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