Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Wisconsin 26.6, Michigan State 18.3 at Camp Randall Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Wisconsin wins about 71% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 8.3 points and 44.9 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Michigan State is 2-2, scoring 22 and allowing 21.3 points per game (+0.7 per game). Wisconsin is 3-1, scoring 31.8 and allowing 20 points per game (+11.8 per game).
Expect Michigan State to find it hard going: Wisconsin's strong defense (22nd) outranks Michigan State's below-average offense (97th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.4 points against an average defense). Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th) should limit Wisconsin's middle-of-the-pack offense (75th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Michigan State by 14 and Wisconsin by 31 about 80% of the time.
Wisconsin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wisconsin by about 6.2. The game is on BTN.
Result: Michigan State 3, Wisconsin 31. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 19.7 points and the total by 10.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Michigan State / Wisconsin) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Wisconsin -10.25 → Wisconsin -8.75 | 44.5 → 43.25 | +292.5 / -382.5 |
| DraftKings | Wisconsin -10 → Wisconsin -8.5 | 44.5 → 43.5 | +280 / -355 |
| Bovada | Wisconsin -10.5 → Wisconsin -9 | 44.5 → 43 | +305 / -410 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Wisconsin win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Wisconsin -8.5 | 44.9 | 71% |
| Market consensus | Wisconsin -9 | 43.3 | 76% |
| Blended projection | Wisconsin -8.5 | 44.7 | 72% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Wisconsin win probability
- model 71% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Wisconsin -8.3 · market Wisconsin -8.75 · difference -0.4 pts (Wisconsin view)
- Total
- model 44.9 · market 43.25 · difference +1.6
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Michigan State 18.3, Wisconsin 26.6 | Wisconsin 71%right winner | 19.7 | 10.9 |
| New formula | Michigan State 16.7, Wisconsin 24.9 | Wisconsin 70%right winner | 19.9 | 7.6 |
Final: Michigan State 3, Wisconsin 31. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Michigan State vs Wisconsin: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Michigan State | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.0#111 | 31.8#66 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.3#54 | 20.0#45 |
| Yards per play | 5.11#125 | 6.86#32 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.57#76 | 4.69#26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 151.8#99 | 136.0#114 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.3#109 | 275.8#30 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 130.5#53 | 122.3#37 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 184.3#52 | 165.3#31 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25#100 | 1.25#109 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#111 | 0.75#99 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75#78 | 1.25#114 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.75#134 | 0.75#21 |
| Stat | Michigan State | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02#120 | +0.08#76 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#82 | -0.08#22 |
| Success rate | 44.2%#61 | 40.1%#107 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.7%#82 | 35.7%#21 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.0%#122 | 13.7%#58 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.3%#41 | 8.9%#11 |
| Havoc rate | 13.9%#78 | 12.9%#92 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.5%#126 | 13.2%#82 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.52#114 | 4.14#71 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.82#71 | 3.88#77 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#44 | own 31#55 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#85 | own 25#21 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#79 | 60.0#113 |
| Stat | Michigan State | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#118 | +0.11#61 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01#103 | +0.06#78 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#37 | -0.04#38 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18#109 | -0.12#18 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.4%#82 | 35.4%#121 |
| Passing success rate | 45.0%#55 | 44.2%#63 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0%#98 | 14.0%#33 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.9%#108 | 27.0%#107 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.2%#61 | 17.6%#2 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.1%#64 | 47.1%#39 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.1%#77 | 32.7%#34 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.1%#94 | 50.0%#119 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#97 | 41.7%#15 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Michigan State schedule · Wisconsin schedule · all Week 5 projections
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