2026 schedule
Wisconsin Badgers
2026 season so far
Wisconsin (No. 25) is 5-2 against the 22nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+11.7 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Wisconsin ranks 34th of 139 FBS teams overall — 82nd on offense and 13th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at Iowa in Week 9. We project Wisconsin 14, Iowa 22 — Wisconsin wins 28% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
#4 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
1-0 · SOS #49
Loss 13-41
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 13.3
Total 48.1
DraftKings
ND -21
Total 45.5
Final Notre Dame by 28. Notre Dame beat the spread. 54 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -20.75 (open Notre Dame -16.5) · O/U 46 (open 47) · ML +1000 / -2150 · Notre Dame 91% no-vig · model vs market -7.4 pts, -11 pct pts (Notre Dame view)
NBC Lambeau Field - vs
Western Illinois Leathernecks
1-2 · SOS #95
Win 36-9
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Wisconsin by 35
Total 48
DraftKings
WIS -43.5
Total 53.5
Final Wisconsin by 27. Western Illinois beat the spread. 45 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Wisconsin -43.25 (open Wisconsin -39.25) · O/U 53.25 (open 49) · model vs market -8.2 pts (Wisconsin view)
BTN Camp Randall Stadium - vs
Eastern Michigan Eagles
1-3 · SOS #131
Win 54-10
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Wisconsin by 6.6
Total 46.8
DraftKings
WIS -23.5
Total 43.5
Final Wisconsin by 44. Wisconsin beat the spread. 64 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Wisconsin -23.5 (open Wisconsin -24.5) · O/U 43.75 (open 45.75) · ML +1150 / -2850 · Wisconsin 92% no-vig · model vs market -16.9 pts, -26 pct pts (Wisconsin view)
Peacock Camp Randall Stadium - at
#13 Penn State Nittany Lions
3-1 · SOS #46
Win 24-20
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Penn State by 14.4
Total 47
DraftKings
PSU -9.5
Total 43.5
Final Wisconsin by 4. Wisconsin beat the spread. 44 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Penn State -9.75 (open Penn State -10.75) · O/U 43.75 (open 44.5) · ML +300 / -390 · Penn State 76% no-vig · model vs market +4.6 pts, +7 pct pts (Penn State view)
Peacock Beaver Stadium - vs
Michigan State Spartans
2-3 · SOS #7
Win 31-3
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Wisconsin by 8.3
Total 44.9
DraftKings
WIS -8.5
Total 43.5
Final Wisconsin by 28. Wisconsin beat the spread. 34 points — under the 43.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Wisconsin -8.75 (open Wisconsin -10.25) · O/U 43.25 (open 44.5) · ML +292.5 / -382.5 · Wisconsin 76% no-vig · model vs market -0.4 pts, -5 pct pts (Wisconsin view)
BTN Camp Randall Stadium - at
#12 UCLA Bruins
6-0 · SOS #42
Loss 7-17
Week 7
Our number· pregame
UCLA by 6.5
Total 47.1
DraftKings
UCLA -1.5
Total 42.5
Final UCLA by 10. UCLA beat the spread. 24 points — under the 42.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -2 (open UCLA -3.25) · O/U 42.75 (open 48) · ML +123.5 / -146 · UCLA 57% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +10 pct pts (UCLA view)
NBC Rose Bowl - vs
#16 USC Trojans
6-2 · SOS #26
Win 24-7
Week 8
Our number· pregame
USC by 6.3
Total 50.9
DraftKings
USC -1.5
Total 50.5
Final Wisconsin by 17. Wisconsin beat the spread. 31 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -2.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML -135 / +108 · Wisconsin 46% no-vig · model vs market -3.8 pts, -12 pct pts (Wisconsin view)
NBC Camp Randall Stadium - at
Iowa Hawkeyes
5-2 · SOS #39
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 14-22 · 28%
Our number
Iowa by 8
Total 36
DraftKings
IOWA -3.5
Total 36.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Iowa than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Iowa -3.5 · O/U 36.5 · ML +140 / -170 · Iowa 60% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +11 pct pts (Iowa view)
Fox Kinnick Stadium - vs
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2-5 · SOS #51
Sat, Nov 7, 5:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 31-18 · 80%
Our number
Wisconsin by 13
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
BTN Camp Randall Stadium - at
Maryland Terrapins
2-5 · SOS #40
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 28-19 · 72%
Our number
Wisconsin by 9
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SECU Stadium - at
Purdue Boilermakers
3-4 · SOS #11
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 29-20 · 72%
Our number
Wisconsin by 9
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ross-Ade Stadium - vs
Minnesota Golden Gophers
5-2 · SOS #75
Sat, Nov 28, 12:30 AM
Week 13
Proj 20-12 · 70%
Our number
Wisconsin by 8
Total 32
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
NBC Camp Randall Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Wisconsin Badgers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+7.5
34th in FBS
Adj. offense
25.0
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
17.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 27.0 | 79 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 15.3 | 13 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.00 | 68 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.43 | 3 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 155.0 | 92 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 191.9 | 105 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 114.4 | 17 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 182.1 | 30 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.71 | 51 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | 59 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.71 | 99 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.14 | 27 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.06 | 85 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.11 | 10 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 39.3% | 117 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 38.4% | 35 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.3% | 76 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 6.9% | 2 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.4% | 65 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 12.6% | 52 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.09 | 72 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.10 | 12 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 32 | 25 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 25 | 5 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 57.9 | 134 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.10 | 55 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.01 | 103 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.12 | 7 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.10 | 22 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 39.6% | 108 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 38.9% | 101 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 14.2% | 23 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 26.1% | 119 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 24.6% | 13 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 46.1% | 32 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 41.8% | 100 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.1% | 97 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 40.0% | 6 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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