Matchup analysis
Our model projects Wisconsin 31, Rutgers 18 at Camp Randall Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Wisconsin wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.9 points and 49.8 combined points.
Rutgers is 2-5 against the 51st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28.7 and allowing 33.3 points per game (-4.6 per game). Wisconsin (No. 25) is 5-2 against the 22nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+11.7 per game).
Wisconsin's elite defense (13th) should limit Rutgers's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Wisconsin's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense) against Rutgers's below-average defense (104th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rutgers by 10 and Wisconsin by 35 about 80% of the time.
Wisconsin gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Wisconsin by about 10.8. The game is on BTN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Rutgers vs Wisconsin: stat comparison
| Stat | Rutgers | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.7#69 | 27.0#79 |
| Points allowed per game | 33.3#128 | 15.3#13 |
| Yards per play | 6.30#50 | 6.00#68 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.92#132 | 4.43#3 |
| Rushing yards per game | 167.9#68 | 155.0#92 |
| Net passing yards per game | 250.4#43 | 191.9#105 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 206.3#127 | 114.4#17 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 215.0#85 | 182.1#30 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.00#138 | 0.71#51 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71#93 | 1.00#59 |
| Sacks per game | 1.43#111 | 1.71#99 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.57#117 | 1.14#27 |
| Stat | Rutgers | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#73 | +0.06#85 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.25#137 | -0.11#10 |
| Success rate | 44.2%#53 | 39.3%#117 |
| Success rate allowed | 49.5%#136 | 38.4%#35 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.7%#68 | 12.3%#76 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 17.4%#136 | 6.9%#2 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#102 | 14.4%#65 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5%#120 | 12.6%#52 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.98#83 | 4.09#72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.74#131 | 3.10#12 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#93 | own 32#25 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#121 | own 25#5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.4#67 | 57.9#134 |
| Stat | Rutgers | Wisconsin |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#52 | +0.10#55 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#89 | +0.01#103 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.32#138 | -0.12#7 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#113 | -0.10#22 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.4%#48 | 39.6%#108 |
| Passing success rate | 41.9%#65 | 38.9%#101 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#49 | 14.2%#23 |
| Passing-down success rate | 37.5%#18 | 26.1%#119 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 36.7%#125 | 24.6%#13 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.4%#76 | 46.1%#32 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.5%#105 | 41.8%#100 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.5%#50 | 57.1%#97 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 65.6%#97 | 40.0%#6 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rutgers schedule · Wisconsin schedule · all Week 10 projections
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