Week 10 College Football Projections (2026)
Updated Oct 26, 2026
Week 10 of the 2026 college football season has 63 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Georgia State at App State (0-point margin), the highest projected total is Texas State at Oregon State (74.8 points) and the lowest is Michigan State at Michigan (41.3). 17 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Every FBS game
CSV download · Sports Pro- Tue, Nov 3, 7:00 PM EST
Ohio34
Akron19We project Ohio 34-19, a 15.1-point margin with 52.8 total points; Ohio wins 84% of the time.
Our number
Ohio by 15.1
Total 52.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ohio 84% · total 52.8Full preview → - Tue, Nov 3, 7:00 PM EST
Buffalo21We project Miami (OH) 29-21, a 8.1-point margin with 49.9 total points; Miami (OH) wins 70% of the time.
Our number
Miami (OH) by 8.1
Total 49.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Miami (OH) 70% · total 49.9Full preview → - Wed, Nov 4 · TBD
We project Massachusetts 28-25, a 3.2-point margin with 53.4 total points; Massachusetts wins 58% of the time.
Our number
Massachusetts by 3.2
Total 53.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Massachusetts 58% · total 53.4Full preview → - Wed, Nov 4 · TBDNeutral site
We project Eastern Michigan 24-23, a 0.9-point margin with 47.5 total points; Eastern Michigan wins 52% of the time.
Our number
Eastern Michigan by 0.9
Total 47.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Eastern Michigan 52% · total 47.5Full preview → - Wed, Nov 4 · TBD
Toledo41We project Toledo 41-15, a 25.4-point margin with 55.9 total points; Toledo wins 95% of the time.
Our number
Toledo by 25.4
Total 55.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Toledo 95% · total 55.9Full preview → - Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM EST
UTSA41We project UTSA 41-32, a 9-point margin with 72.1 total points; UTSA wins 72% of the time.
Our number
UTSA by 9
Total 72.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UTSA 72% · total 72.1Full preview → - Thu, Nov 5, 8:00 PM EST
We project James Madison 39-21, a 18.1-point margin with 59.2 total points; James Madison wins 88% of the time.
Our number
James Madison by 18.1
Total 59.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
James Madison 88% · total 59.2Full preview → - Fri, Nov 6, 7:00 PM ESTESPN
SMU31We project SMU 31-24, a 6.9-point margin with 55.9 total points; SMU wins 68% of the time.
Our number
SMU by 6.9
Total 55.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SMU 68% · total 55.9Full preview → - Fri, Nov 6, 7:30 PM ESTESPN2
We project South Florida 24-24, a 0.5-point margin with 47.8 total points; South Florida wins 51% of the time.
Our number
South Florida by 0.5
Total 47.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
South Florida 51% · total 47.8Full preview → - Fri, Nov 6, 8:00 PM ESTFox
Nebraska30
Illinois24We project Nebraska 30-24, a 6-point margin with 53.3 total points; Nebraska wins 65% of the time.
Our number
Nebraska by 6
Total 53.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Nebraska 65% · total 53.3Full preview → - Fri, Nov 6, 9:00 PM ESTCBSSN
Nevada18We project New Mexico 31-18, a 12.9-point margin with 48.4 total points; New Mexico wins 80% of the time.
Our number
New Mexico by 12.9
Total 48.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
New Mexico 80% · total 48.4Full preview → - Fri, Nov 6, 10:15 PM ESTESPN
TCU18
Arizona27We project Arizona 27-18, a 9.5-point margin with 44.7 total points; Arizona wins 73% of the time.
Our number
Arizona by 9.5
Total 44.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Arizona 73% · total 44.7Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Oregon21We project Ohio State 31-21, a 10.3-point margin with 51.8 total points; Ohio State wins 75% of the time.
Our number
Ohio State by 10.3
Total 51.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ohio State 75% · total 51.8Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Georgia33
Ole Miss28We project Georgia 33-28, a 4.6-point margin with 61.3 total points; Georgia wins 62% of the time.
Our number
Georgia by 4.6
Total 61.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Georgia 62% · total 61.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
BYU26
Utah27We project Utah 27-26, a 0.9-point margin with 53 total points; Utah wins 52% of the time.
Our number
Utah by 0.9
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Utah 52% · total 53Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
UCLA25We project UCLA 25-20, a 5.3-point margin with 44.6 total points; UCLA wins 64% of the time.
Our number
UCLA by 5.3
Total 44.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UCLA 64% · total 44.6Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Kentucky21We project Tennessee 32-21, a 11.2-point margin with 53.3 total points; Tennessee wins 77% of the time.
Our number
Tennessee by 11.2
Total 53.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Tennessee 77% · total 53.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Alabama28
LSU27We project Alabama 28-27, a 0.5-point margin with 55.4 total points; Alabama wins 51% of the time.
Our number
Alabama by 0.5
Total 55.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Alabama 51% · total 55.4Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Texas26
Missouri20We project Texas 26-20, a 6.2-point margin with 45.9 total points; Texas wins 66% of the time.
Our number
Texas by 6.2
Total 45.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texas 66% · total 45.9Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project Texas Tech 42-25, a 16.9-point margin with 67.2 total points; Texas Tech wins 87% of the time.
Our number
Texas Tech by 16.9
Total 67.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texas Tech 87% · total 67.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project Wake Forest 44-3, a 41.5-point margin with 47.5 total points; Wake Forest wins 100% of the time.
Our number
Wake Forest by 41.5
Total 47.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Wake Forest 100% · total 47.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Oklahoma23
Florida25We project Florida 25-23, a 1.6-point margin with 48.3 total points; Florida wins 54% of the time.
Our number
Florida by 1.6
Total 48.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Florida 54% · total 48.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Houston34We project Houston 34-24, a 9.5-point margin with 58.1 total points; Houston wins 73% of the time.
Our number
Houston by 9.5
Total 58.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Houston 73% · total 58.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Iowa26We project Iowa 26-21, a 4.8-point margin with 46.6 total points; Iowa wins 62% of the time.
Our number
Iowa by 4.8
Total 46.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Iowa 62% · total 46.6Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project Kansas State 31-28, a 2.8-point margin with 59.4 total points; Kansas State wins 57% of the time.
Our number
Kansas State by 2.8
Total 59.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kansas State 57% · total 59.4Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Rutgers19We project Wisconsin 32-19, a 12.8-point margin with 50.3 total points; Wisconsin wins 80% of the time.
Our number
Wisconsin by 12.8
Total 50.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Wisconsin 80% · total 50.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Arkansas20
Auburn29We project Auburn 29-20, a 9.4-point margin with 49.1 total points; Auburn wins 73% of the time.
Our number
Auburn by 9.4
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Auburn 73% · total 49.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project Mississippi State 32-27, a 5.8-point margin with 58.8 total points; Mississippi State wins 65% of the time.
Our number
Mississippi State by 5.8
Total 58.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Mississippi State 65% · total 58.8Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project South Carolina 27-26, a 0.6-point margin with 52.6 total points; South Carolina wins 52% of the time.
Our number
South Carolina by 0.6
Total 52.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
South Carolina 52% · total 52.6Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
UCF26
Kansas28We project Kansas 28-26, a 1.4-point margin with 53.9 total points; Kansas wins 54% of the time.
Our number
Kansas by 1.4
Total 53.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kansas 54% · total 53.9Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Colorado23We project Arizona State 29-23, a 6.1-point margin with 52.1 total points; Arizona State wins 65% of the time.
Our number
Arizona State by 6.1
Total 52.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Arizona State 65% · total 52.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Baylor28We project Baylor 28-21, a 7.1-point margin with 49.6 total points; Baylor wins 68% of the time.
Our number
Baylor by 7.1
Total 49.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Baylor 68% · total 49.6Full preview →
- Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Clemson26
Syracuse23We project Clemson 26-23, a 2.3-point margin with 49.3 total points; Clemson wins 56% of the time.
Our number
Clemson by 2.3
Total 49.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Clemson 56% · total 49.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Duke30
NC State28We project Duke 30-28, a 2.5-point margin with 58.2 total points; Duke wins 57% of the time.
Our number
Duke by 2.5
Total 58.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Duke 57% · total 58.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project Louisville 35-25, a 10.1-point margin with 60.1 total points; Louisville wins 75% of the time.
Our number
Louisville by 10.1
Total 60.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisville 75% · total 60.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project Florida State 31-21, a 9.7-point margin with 52.6 total points; Florida State wins 74% of the time.
Our number
Florida State by 9.7
Total 52.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Florida State 74% · total 52.6Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Michigan26We project Michigan 26-15, a 11.7-point margin with 41.3 total points; Michigan wins 78% of the time.
Our number
Michigan by 11.7
Total 41.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Michigan 78% · total 41.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Maryland30
Purdue32We project Purdue 32-30, a 2.5-point margin with 61.9 total points; Purdue wins 57% of the time.
Our number
Purdue by 2.5
Total 61.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Purdue 57% · total 61.9Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project Washington 27-24, a 3.2-point margin with 50.3 total points; Washington wins 58% of the time.
Our number
Washington by 3.2
Total 50.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Washington 58% · total 50.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
UAB32We project UAB 32-21, a 10.7-point margin with 53.1 total points; UAB wins 76% of the time.
Our number
UAB by 10.7
Total 53.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UAB 76% · total 53.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Rice22We project North Texas 41-22, a 18.3-point margin with 62.8 total points; North Texas wins 88% of the time.
Our number
North Texas by 18.3
Total 62.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
North Texas 88% · total 62.8Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Tulsa22
Tulane25We project Tulane 25-22, a 2.6-point margin with 47.5 total points; Tulane wins 57% of the time.
Our number
Tulane by 2.6
Total 47.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Tulane 57% · total 47.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Hawai'i31
UTEP20We project Hawai'i 31-20, a 11.8-point margin with 51 total points; Hawai'i wins 78% of the time.
Our number
Hawai'i by 11.8
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Hawai'i 78% · total 51Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBDMW+
We project San José State 30-20, a 10-point margin with 50.1 total points; San José State wins 74% of the time.
Our number
San José State by 10
Total 50.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
San José State 74% · total 50.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project App State 30-30, a 0-point margin with 60.2 total points; App State wins 50% of the time.
Our number
dead even
Total 60.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
App State 50% · total 60.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project Coastal Carolina 23-22, a 0.9-point margin with 44.8 total points; Coastal Carolina wins 52% of the time.
Our number
Coastal Carolina by 0.9
Total 44.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Coastal Carolina 52% · total 44.8Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Marshall22We project Georgia Southern 32-22, a 9.6-point margin with 53.6 total points; Georgia Southern wins 74% of the time.
Our number
Georgia Southern by 9.6
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Georgia Southern 74% · total 53.6Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
We project Louisiana 33-28, a 5.5-point margin with 61.5 total points; Louisiana wins 64% of the time.
Our number
Louisiana by 5.5
Total 61.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisiana 64% · total 61.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Troy21We project Louisiana Tech 28-21, a 7.8-point margin with 49.1 total points; Louisiana Tech wins 70% of the time.
Our number
Louisiana Tech by 7.8
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisiana Tech 70% · total 49.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 12:00 PM ESTCBSSN
UConn23We project North Carolina 29-23, a 5.6-point margin with 52.5 total points; North Carolina wins 64% of the time.
Our number
North Carolina by 5.6
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
North Carolina 64% · total 52.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM EST
We project Arkansas State 33-21, a 11.7-point margin with 54 total points; Arkansas State wins 78% of the time.
Our number
Arkansas State by 11.7
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Arkansas State 78% · total 54Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 3:00 PM EST
Delaware28We project Delaware 28-27, a 0.8-point margin with 54.4 total points; Delaware wins 52% of the time.
Our number
Delaware by 0.8
Total 54.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Delaware 52% · total 54.4Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM ESTCBSSN
Temple22
Navy33We project Navy 33-22, a 10.7-point margin with 54.9 total points; Navy wins 76% of the time.
Our number
Navy by 10.7
Total 54.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Navy 76% · total 54.9Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 3:30 PM EST
We project Western Kentucky 28-23, a 4.7-point margin with 50.8 total points; Western Kentucky wins 62% of the time.
Our number
Western Kentucky by 4.7
Total 50.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Western Kentucky 62% · total 50.8Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 4:00 PM EST
We project Florida International 29-20, a 8.5-point margin with 48.7 total points; Florida International wins 71% of the time.
Our number
Florida International by 8.5
Total 48.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Florida International 71% · total 48.7Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM EST
Liberty29We project Liberty 29-18, a 10.9-point margin with 47.4 total points; Liberty wins 76% of the time.
Our number
Liberty by 10.9
Total 47.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Liberty 76% · total 47.4Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM ESTUSA Net
We project Boise State 44-23, a 21.7-point margin with 67 total points; Boise State wins 92% of the time.
Our number
Boise State by 21.7
Total 67
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Boise State 92% · total 67Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 7:00 PM ESTCBSSN
We project Jacksonville State 32-18, a 13.6-point margin with 49.9 total points; Jacksonville State wins 81% of the time.
Our number
Jacksonville State by 13.6
Total 49.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jacksonville State 81% · total 49.9Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ESTNBC
Miami29We project Notre Dame 31-29, a 2.2-point margin with 60 total points; Notre Dame wins 56% of the time.
Our number
Notre Dame by 2.2
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Notre Dame 56% · total 60Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 7:30 PM ESTCBS
Army30We project Army 30-25, a 5.7-point margin with 54.7 total points; Army wins 64% of the time.
Our number
Army by 5.7
Total 54.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Army 64% · total 54.7Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 9:30 PM ESTUSA Net
We project Fresno State 23-21, a 2.5-point margin with 44.1 total points; Fresno State wins 56% of the time.
Our number
Fresno State by 2.5
Total 44.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Fresno State 56% · total 44.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 10:30 PM ESTCW
We project Oregon State 39-36, a 3.8-point margin with 74.8 total points; Oregon State wins 60% of the time.
Our number
Oregon State by 3.8
Total 74.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Oregon State 60% · total 74.8Full preview → - Sat, Nov 7, 10:30 PM ESTCBSSN
Wyoming17
UNLV26We project UNLV 26-17, a 9.4-point margin with 42.7 total points; UNLV wins 73% of the time.
Our number
UNLV by 9.4
Total 42.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UNLV 73% · total 42.7Full preview →
How these numbers are made
Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.
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