2026 schedule
Navy Midshipmen
2026 season so far
Navy is 2-5 against the 86th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.7 and allowing 29.1 points per game (+0.6 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Navy ranks 84th of 139 FBS teams overall — 81st on offense and 86th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: vs Notre Dame in Week 9. We project Navy 12, Notre Dame 43 — Navy wins 2% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
Towson Tigers
0-2 · SOS #18
Win 42-15
Week 1
Our number· model now
Navy by 28
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Navy by 27. 57 points. No book line was saved for this game.
CBSSN Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - at
Florida Atlantic Owls
1-1 · SOS #119
Loss 30-38
Week 2
Our number· model now
Navy by 5
Total 65
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida Atlantic by 8. 68 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPNU Flagler Credit Union Stadium - at
UAB Blazers
2-2 · SOS #103
Loss 20-24
Week 4
Our number· model now
Navy by 8
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
Final UAB by 4. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN Protective Stadium - at
Air Force Falcons
3-1 · SOS #116
Loss 9-14
Week 5
Our number· model now
Air Force by 2
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Air Force by 5. 23 points. No book line was saved for this game.
CBS Falcon Stadium - vs
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
3-3 · SOS #89
Win 34-26
Week 6
Our number· model now
Navy by 3
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final Navy by 8. 60 points. No book line was saved for this game.
CBSSN Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - at
UTSA Roadrunners
6-1 · SOS #72
Loss 34-38
Week 7
Our number· model now
UTSA by 7
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final UTSA by 4. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPNU Alamodome - vs
North Texas Mean Green
5-2 · SOS #76
Loss 39-49
Week 8
Our number· model now
North Texas by 3
Total 65
Book line
Not posted
Final North Texas by 10. 88 points. No book line was saved for this game.
CBSSN Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - vs
#5 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6-1 · SOS #16
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 12-43 · 2%
Our number
Notre Dame by 31
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ABC Gillette Stadium - vs
Temple Owls
2-5 · SOS #84
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 33-22 · 76%
Our number
Navy by 11
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - vs
Memphis Tigers
6-2 · SOS #104
Sat, Nov 21, 5:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 28-29 · 45%
Our number
Memphis by 1
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - at
Charlotte 49ers
1-6 · SOS #62
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 36-19 · 88%
Our number
Navy by 17
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jerry Richardson Stadium - vs
Army Black Knights
5-2 · SOS #102
Sat, Dec 12, 8:00 PM
Week 15
Proj 26-29 · 42%
Our number
Army by 3
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBS MetLife Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Navy Midshipmen stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-3.2
84th in FBS
Adj. offense
25.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
28.4
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 29.7 | 64 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 29.1 | 107 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.67 | 26 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.14 | 104 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 312.9 | 3 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 114.9 | 135 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 130.9 | 37 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 243.6 | 114 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.43 | 19 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.57 | 112 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.14 | 61 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.29 | 34 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.27 | 6 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.11 | 107 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 47.5% | 26 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.5% | 64 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.7% | 43 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.2% | 58 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.0% | 68 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 10.6% | 19 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.46 | 38 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.90 | 78 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 28 | 108 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 31 | 120 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.1 | 85 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.31 | 1 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.15 | 44 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.09 | 15 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.34 | 134 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 51.8% | 8 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 33.3% | 133 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 11.9% | 6 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 25.5% | 121 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 29.3% | 66 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 43.8% | 51 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 45.1% | 123 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 75.8% | 10 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 60.9% | 76 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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