Matchup analysis
Our model projects Notre Dame 43, Navy 12 on a neutral field at Gillette Stadium in Week 9. That is a heavy edge: Notre Dame wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 30.8 points and 54.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Notre Dame (No. 5) is 6-1 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.1 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+27.7 per game). Navy is 2-5 against the 99th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.7 and allowing 29.1 points per game (+0.6 per game).
Notre Dame's elite offense (2nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Navy's below-average defense (86th); that mismatch is where most of Notre Dame's projected points come from. Expect Navy to find it hard going: Notre Dame's elite defense (3rd) outranks Navy's middle-of-the-pack offense (81st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Notre Dame by 53 and Notre Dame by 8 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ABC.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Notre Dame / Navy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Notre Dame -30.5 | 57 | -8000 / +1900 |
| DraftKings | Notre Dame -30.5 | 57.5 | -5000 / +1800 |
| BetRivers | Notre Dame -30.5 | 57 | — / — |
| FanDuel | Notre Dame -30.5 | 56.5 | -10000 / +2000 |
| theScore Bet | Notre Dame -29.5 | 57.5 | -6000 / +1800 |
| BetMGM | Notre Dame -30 | 56.5 | -12500 / +3300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Notre Dame -30.5 | 56.5 | — / — |
| Pinnacle | Notre Dame -30.5 | 57 | — / — |
| Bovada | Notre Dame -30.5 | 57 | — / — |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Navy win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Notre Dame -31 | 54.9 | 2% |
| Market consensus | Notre Dame -30.5 | 57.0 | 4% |
| Blended projection | Notre Dame -30.5 | 57.1 | 2% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Navy win probability
- model 2% · market (no-vig) 4% · difference -2 pts
- Margin
- model Notre Dame -30.8 · market Notre Dame -30.5 · difference -0.3 pts (Navy view)
- Total
- model 54.9 · market 57 · difference -2.1
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Navy 2%.
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Notre Dame vs Navy: stat comparison
| Stat | Notre Dame | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.1#6 | 29.7#64 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4#5 | 29.1#107 |
| Yards per play | 6.54#32 | 6.67#26 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.72#12 | 6.14#104 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.3#51 | 312.9#3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 261.3#33 | 114.9#135 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 82.9#2 | 130.9#37 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 170.4#18 | 243.6#114 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.14#1 | 0.43#19 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#15 | 0.57#112 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#60 | 2.14#61 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.29#1 | 1.29#34 |
| Stat | Notre Dame | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.22#13 | +0.27#6 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.09#14 | +0.11#107 |
| Success rate | 50.9%#6 | 47.5%#26 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.2%#6 | 40.5%#64 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#105 | 13.7%#43 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.6%#1 | 11.2%#58 |
| Havoc rate | 16.3%#19 | 14.0%#68 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.2%#13 | 10.6%#19 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.08#6 | 4.46#38 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.40#112 | 3.90#78 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#39 | own 28#108 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#10 | own 31#120 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#44 | 64.1#85 |
| Stat | Notre Dame | Navy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#64 | +0.31#1 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.36#7 | +0.15#44 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#24 | -0.09#15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#18 | +0.34#134 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.0%#10 | 51.8%#8 |
| Passing success rate | 50.8%#15 | 33.3%#133 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.3%#24 | 11.9%#6 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.0%#88 | 25.5%#121 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.2%#29 | 29.3%#66 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.0%#46 | 43.8%#51 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9%#109 | 45.1%#123 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#43 | 75.8%#10 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#106 | 60.9%#76 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Notre Dame schedule · Navy schedule · all Week 9 projections
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