2026 schedule
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
2026 season so far
Notre Dame (No. 5) is 6-1 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.1 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+27.7 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Notre Dame ranks 1st of 139 FBS teams overall — 2nd on offense and 3rd on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: at Navy in Week 9. We project Notre Dame 43, Navy 12 — Notre Dame wins 98% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Wisconsin Badgers
0-1 · SOS #22
Win 41-13
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 13.3
Total 48.1
DraftKings
ND -21
Total 45.5
Final Notre Dame by 28. Notre Dame beat the spread. 54 points — over the 45.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -20.75 (open Notre Dame -16.5) · O/U 46 (open 47) · ML +1000 / -2150 · Notre Dame 91% no-vig · model vs market -7.4 pts, -11 pct pts (Notre Dame view)
NBC Lambeau Field - vs
Rice Owls
1-1 · SOS #66
Win 52-0
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 23.6
Total 49.8
DraftKings
ND -44.5
Total 54.5
Final Notre Dame by 52. Notre Dame beat the spread. 52 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -44.75 (open Notre Dame -44.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 53.5) · model vs market -21.1 pts (Notre Dame view)
NBC Notre Dame Stadium - vs
Michigan State Spartans
2-1 · SOS #7
Win 27-10
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 11.4
Total 49.6
DraftKings
ND -28.5
Total 51.5
Final Notre Dame by 17. Michigan State beat the spread. 37 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -28.75 (open Notre Dame -29.75) · O/U 51.5 (open 52.75) · ML +1700 / -7500 · Notre Dame 95% no-vig · model vs market -17.3 pts, -17 pct pts (Notre Dame view)
NBC Notre Dame Stadium - at
Purdue Boilermakers
1-3 · SOS #11
Win 49-10
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 29.7
Total 61.3
DraftKings
ND -27.5
Total 57.5
Final Notre Dame by 39. Notre Dame beat the spread. 59 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -27.5 (open Notre Dame -27) · O/U 57.25 (open 57) · ML -4750 / +1500 · Purdue 6% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -4 pct pts (Purdue view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 5 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAF)Peacock Ross-Ade Stadium - at
North Carolina Tar Heels
2-2 · SOS #10
Win 37-26
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 23.7
Total 48.3
DraftKings
ND -21
Total 46.5
Final Notre Dame by 11. North Carolina beat the spread. 63 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -21 (open Notre Dame -22.5) · O/U 46.5 (open 51.75) · ML -1800 / +925 · North Carolina 9% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -3 pct pts (North Carolina view)
Game-time weather: Light rain and fog/mist, 70°F, Wind 9 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRDU)ESPN/Disney+ Kenan Stadium - vs
Stanford Cardinal
2-4 · SOS #14
Win 58-7
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 42.3
Total 55.3
DraftKings
ND -40.5
Total 55.5
Final Notre Dame by 51. Notre Dame beat the spread. 65 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -40 (open Notre Dame -38.25) · O/U 55.25 (open 54) · model vs market +2.3 pts (Notre Dame view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 9 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSBN)NBC Notre Dame Stadium - at
#8 BYU Cougars
6-0 · SOS #34
Loss 24-28
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 11.9
Total 52.5
DraftKings
ND -10.5
Total 47.5
Final BYU by 4. BYU beat the spread. 52 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -10.5 · O/U 47.25 (open 51.25) · ML -425 / +325 · BYU 23% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, -1 pct pts (BYU view)
Game-time weather: Haze, 64°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPVU)ABC LaVell Edwards Stadium - vs
Navy Midshipmen
2-5 · SOS #99
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 43-12 · 98%
Our number
Notre Dame by 31
Total 55
DraftKings
ND -30.5
Total 57.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -30.5 · O/U 57 · ML -8000 / +1900 · Navy 4% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -2 pct pts (Navy view)
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 52°F, Wind 8 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTABC Gillette Stadium - vs
#1 Miami Hurricanes
7-0 · SOS #72
Sun, Nov 8, 12:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 31-29 · 56%
Our number
Notre Dame by 2
Total 60
DraftKings
ND -6.5
Total 54.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Miami than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Notre Dame -6.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +195 / -238 · Notre Dame 68% no-vig · model vs market -4.5 pts, -11 pct pts (Notre Dame view)
NBC Notre Dame Stadium - vs
Boston College Eagles
4-3 · SOS #61
Sat, Nov 14, 8:30 PM
Week 11
Proj 42-9 · 99%
Our number
Notre Dame by 33
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
NBC Notre Dame Stadium - vs
#19 SMU Mustangs
6-1 · SOS #70
Sun, Nov 22, 12:30 AM
Week 12
Proj 39-19 · 91%
Our number
Notre Dame by 20
Total 58
DraftKings
ND -17.5
Total 56.5
We're 2.5 points higher on Notre Dame than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Notre Dame -17.5 · O/U 56.5 · ML +750 / -1200 · Notre Dame 89% no-vig · model vs market +2.5 pts, +2 pct pts (Notre Dame view)
NBC Notre Dame Stadium - at
Syracuse Orange
3-4 · SOS #77
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 42-16 · 96%
Our number
Notre Dame by 26
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
JMA Wireless Dome
Times shown in your local time
Notre Dame Fighting Irish stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+28.5
1st in FBS
Adj. offense
41.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
13.3
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 41.1 | 6 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 13.4 | 5 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.54 | 32 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.72 | 12 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 185.3 | 51 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 261.3 | 33 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 82.9 | 2 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 170.4 | 18 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.14 | 1 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.43 | 15 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.14 | 60 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.29 | 1 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.22 | 13 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.09 | 14 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 50.9% | 6 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 34.2% | 6 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.3% | 105 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 6.6% | 1 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 16.3% | 19 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 10.2% | 13 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 5.08 | 6 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.40 | 112 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 32 | 39 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 26 | 10 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 68.3 | 44 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.09 | 64 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.36 | 7 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.06 | 24 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.12 | 18 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 51.0% | 10 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 50.8% | 15 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 14.3% | 24 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.0% | 88 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 26.2% | 29 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 44.0% | 46 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 42.9% | 109 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 66.7% | 43 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 66.7% | 106 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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