Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Notre Dame 30.7, Wisconsin 17.4 on a neutral field at Lambeau Field in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Notre Dame wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.3 points and 48.1 combined points.
Wisconsin has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Notre Dame has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Notre Dame's elite defense (3rd) should limit Wisconsin's middle-of-the-pack offense (82nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense). Notre Dame's elite offense (2nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.8 points against an average defense) meets Wisconsin's elite defense (13th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Notre Dame puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Wisconsin by 9 and Notre Dame by 36 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on NBC.
Result: Wisconsin 13, Notre Dame 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 14.7 points and the total by 5.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Wisconsin / Notre Dame) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Notre Dame -16.5 → Notre Dame -20.75 | 47 → 46 | +1000 / -2150 |
| Bovada | Notre Dame -16.5 → Notre Dame -20.5 | 46.5 | +1000 / -2500 |
| DraftKings | Notre Dame -21 | 47.5 → 45.5 | +1000 / -1800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Notre Dame win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Notre Dame -13.5 | 48.1 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Notre Dame -21 | 46.0 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Notre Dame -19.5 | 47.2 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Notre Dame win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Notre Dame -13.3 · market Notre Dame -20.75 · difference -7.4 pts (Notre Dame view)
- Total
- model 48.1 · market 46 · difference +2.1
Model margin is 7.4 pts more toward Wisconsin than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Wisconsin 17.4, Notre Dame 30.7 | Notre Dame 81%right winner | 14.7 | 5.9 |
| New formula | Wisconsin 9.6, Notre Dame 39.3 | Notre Dame 96%right winner | 1.7 | 5.1 |
Final: Wisconsin 13, Notre Dame 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Wisconsin vs Notre Dame: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Wisconsin | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 12.8#135 | 42.0#2 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.6#40 | 17.6#11 |
| Yards per play | 4.92#130 | 7.41#3 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.54#49 | 5.09#16 |
| Rushing yards per game | 147.3#94 | 211.8#18 |
| Net passing yards per game | 135.5#130 | 251.5#44 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 125.0#17 | 118.6#12 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 214.3#62 | 225.4#85 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.42#114 | 0.83#33 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58#126 | 2.25#1 |
| Sacks per game | 2.58#22 | 2.83#10 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33#110 | 1.00#10 |
| Stat | Wisconsin | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.18#135 | +0.18#8 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01#71 | -0.11#10 |
| Success rate | 35.7%#131 | 49.1%#9 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.9%#114 | 36.1%#13 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.1%#134 | 17.1%#3 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9%#57 | 9.6%#15 |
| Havoc rate | 11.6%#97 | 13.7%#40 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8%#120 | 11.7%#63 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.45#136 | 4.64#13 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.50#31 | 3.16#12 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#78 | own 33#15 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#90 | own 27#12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 57.4#135 | 62.5#116 |
| Stat | Wisconsin | Notre Dame |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.11#131 | +0.13#19 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.27#135 | +0.25#7 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05#35 | -0.10#18 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06#85 | -0.13#21 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.2%#131 | 48.1%#20 |
| Passing success rate | 36.4%#114 | 50.3%#7 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.0%#50 | 22.4%#126 |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5%#115 | 42.5%#2 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.2%#67 | 25.9%#21 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.5%#128 | 50.0%#13 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.3%#66 | 37.1%#39 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5%#106 | 70.4%#24 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#17 | 58.3%#55 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Wisconsin schedule · Notre Dame schedule · all Week 1 projections
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