Matchup analysis
Our model projects Notre Dame 42, Syracuse 16 at JMA Wireless Dome in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: Notre Dame wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 26.5 points and 57.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Notre Dame (No. 5) is 6-1 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 41.1 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+27.7 per game). Syracuse is 3-4 against the 77th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 26.3 points per game (+5.3 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Notre Dame's elite offense (2nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.8 points against an average defense) against Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack defense (78th). Notre Dame's elite defense (3rd) should limit Syracuse's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Notre Dame by 49 and Notre Dame by 4 about 80% of the time.
Syracuse gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Notre Dame is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Notre Dame vs Syracuse: stat comparison
| Stat | Notre Dame | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.1#6 | 31.6#50 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.4#5 | 26.3#93 |
| Yards per play | 6.54#32 | 5.79#90 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.72#12 | 5.59#68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.3#51 | 180.3#56 |
| Net passing yards per game | 261.3#33 | 283.9#14 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 82.9#2 | 157.6#73 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 170.4#18 | 190.9#45 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.14#1 | 1.29#123 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.43#15 | 0.86#69 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#60 | 2.43#39 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.29#1 | 2.43#108 |
| Stat | Notre Dame | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.22#13 | +0.11#53 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.09#14 | +0.02#56 |
| Success rate | 50.9%#6 | 43.3%#63 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.2%#6 | 42.5%#85 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3%#105 | 11.8%#93 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.6%#1 | 13.7%#110 |
| Havoc rate | 16.3%#19 | 16.4%#18 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.2%#13 | 12.9%#56 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.08#6 | 3.67#104 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.40#112 | 4.11#101 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#39 | own 32#36 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#10 | own 30#93 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.3#44 | 80.1#1 |
| Stat | Notre Dame | Syracuse |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09#64 | +0.08#66 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.36#7 | +0.13#54 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.06#24 | +0.13#122 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.12#18 | -0.08#29 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.0%#10 | 45.1%#58 |
| Passing success rate | 50.8%#15 | 41.6%#67 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.3%#24 | 17.7%#80 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.0%#88 | 29.7%#97 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.2%#29 | 28.6%#57 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.0%#46 | 44.4%#39 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.9%#109 | 38.2%#62 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.7%#43 | 56.8%#98 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#106 | 66.7%#103 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Notre Dame schedule · Syracuse schedule · all Week 13 projections
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