Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Notre Dame 32.2, BYU 20.3 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Notre Dame wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.9 points and 52.4 combined points.
Notre Dame (No. 2) is 6-0, scoring 44 and allowing 11 points per game (+33 per game). BYU (No. 8) is 5-0, scoring 34.6 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+21.2 per game).
Notre Dame's elite offense (1st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 42.5 points against an average defense) meets BYU's elite defense (11th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Notre Dame puts up. Expect BYU to find it hard going: Notre Dame's elite defense (1st) outranks BYU's strong offense (25th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Notre Dame by 34 and BYU by 11 about 80% of the time.
BYU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Notre Dame is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Result: Notre Dame 24, BYU 28. BYU won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Notre Dame / BYU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Notre Dame -10.5 | 51.25 → 47.25 | -425 / +325 |
| DraftKings | Notre Dame -10 → Notre Dame -10.5 | 54.5 → 47.5 | -410 / +320 |
| Bovada | Notre Dame -11 → Notre Dame -10.5 | 48 → 47 | -440 / +330 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | BYU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Notre Dame -12 | 52.4 | 22% |
| Market consensus | Notre Dame -10.5 | 47.3 | 23% |
| Blended projection | Notre Dame -11 | 48.6 | 23% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- BYU win probability
- model 22% · market (no-vig) 23% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Notre Dame -11.9 · market Notre Dame -10.5 · difference -1.4 pts (BYU view)
- Total
- model 52.4 · market 47.25 · difference +5.1
Model margin is 1.4 pts more toward Notre Dame than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Notre Dame 32.2, BYU 20.3 | Notre Dame 78%wrong winner | 15.9 | 0.4 |
| New formula | Notre Dame 31.4, BYU 19.8 | Notre Dame 78%wrong winner | 15.5 | 0.8 |
Final: Notre Dame 24, BYU 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Notre Dame vs BYU: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Notre Dame | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 44.0#4 | 34.6#46 |
| Points allowed per game | 11.0#4 | 13.4#10 |
| Yards per play | 6.87#23 | 7.27#10 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.57#11 | 4.77#16 |
| Rushing yards per game | 196.8#44 | 228.2#21 |
| Net passing yards per game | 261.3#36 | 214.0#79 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 76.5#3 | 97.0#7 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 159.0#19 | 182.6#39 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.17#3 | 0.40#23 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#15 | 1.20#31 |
| Sacks per game | 2.50#33 | 2.20#48 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.33#2 | 0.60#9 |
| Stat | Notre Dame | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#18 | +0.17#33 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.14#5 | -0.11#13 |
| Success rate | 53.5%#2 | 50.3%#11 |
| Success rate allowed | 30.9%#1 | 34.3%#11 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#79 | 14.0%#42 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 6.5%#1 | 10.0%#27 |
| Havoc rate | 17.7%#9 | 17.4%#15 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9%#24 | 9.3%#8 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.27#4 | 4.79#21 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70#62 | 3.68#60 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#36 | own 32#41 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#19 | own 27#35 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.7#57 | 60.8#112 |
| Stat | Notre Dame | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#68 | +0.14#41 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.40#6 | +0.21#34 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#22 | +0.01#60 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.21#6 | -0.20#9 |
| Rushing success rate | 54.0%#1 | 53.4%#3 |
| Passing success rate | 54.5%#9 | 48.3%#30 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.7%#34 | 15.2%#39 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.0%#86 | 28.5%#95 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 21.7%#8 | 27.1%#48 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.6%#53 | 56.1%#8 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9%#82 | 37.5%#69 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.7%#29 | 71.9%#24 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.1%#53 | 76.6%#127 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Notre Dame schedule · BYU schedule · all Week 7 projections
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