2026 schedule

BYU Cougars

6-1SOS #34

2026 season so far

BYU (No. 8) is 6-1 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.1 and allowing 18.6 points per game (+14.5 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings BYU ranks 12th of 139 FBS teams overall — 18th on offense and 15th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs Arizona State in Week 9. We project BYU 35, Arizona State 18 — BYU wins 87% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Utah Tech Trailblazers
0-2 · SOS #17
Win 63-7
Week 1
Our number· pregame
BYU by 44.6
Total 47.8
DraftKings
BYU -50.5
Total 61.5
Final BYU by 56. BYU beat the spread. 70 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: BYU -50 (open BYU -49.5) · O/U 61.25 (open 57.75) · model vs market -5.4 pts (BYU view)
ESPN+ LaVell Edwards Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
vs
Arizona Wildcats
1-1 · SOS #78
Win 28-17
Week 2
Our number· pregame
BYU by 4
Total 50
DraftKings
BYU -6.5
Total 49.5
Final BYU by 11. BYU beat the spread. 45 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: BYU -6.75 (open BYU -7) · O/U 49.25 (open 50.5) · ML +237.5 / -290 · BYU 71% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -11 pct pts (BYU view)
Fox LaVell Edwards Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
at
Colorado State Rams
2-1 · SOS #57
Win 41-23
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Colorado State by 4.2
Total 59
DraftKings
BYU -17.5
Total 54.5
Final BYU by 18. BYU beat the spread. 64 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: BYU -17.5 (open BYU -19.5) · O/U 54.25 (open 52.25) · ML -1050 / +650 · Colorado State 13% no-vig · model vs market +21.7 pts, +48 pct pts (Colorado State view)
CBS Canvas Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
at
TCU Horned Frogs
2-3 · SOS #55
Win 17-10
Week 5
Our number· pregame
BYU by 5.3
Total 51.9
DraftKings
BYU -5.5
Total 48.5
Final BYU by 7. BYU beat the spread. 27 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: BYU -5.75 · O/U 48.25 (open 50.75) · ML -227.5 / +187.5 · TCU 33% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, +3 pct pts (TCU view)
Game-time weather: Light rain and fog/mist, 72°F, Wind 7 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFTW)
ESPN/Disney+ Amon G. Carter Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
L. Glasker WR · Low rec yds 49 (avg 90) · 81% · 9 ✓L. Martin RB · Low rush yds 74 (avg 109) · 78% · 16 ✓E. Small WR · Low rec yds 65 (avg 93) · 74% · 32 ✓
vs
Iowa State Cyclones
3-3 · SOS #29
Win 24-10
Week 6
Our number· pregame
BYU by 16.4
Total 52.4
DraftKings
BYU -11.5
Total 46.5
Final BYU by 14. BYU beat the spread. 34 points — under the 46.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: BYU -11.25 (open BYU -12.75) · O/U 46.5 (open 49) · ML +345 / -455 · BYU 78% no-vig · model vs market +5.1 pts, +7 pct pts (BYU view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPVU)
ESPN LaVell Edwards Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · A. Flora RB · Low rush yds 83 (avg 119) · 78% · 86 ✓Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Raynor QB · Low rush yds 24 (avg 30) · 78% · 14 ✓L. Glasker WR · Low rec yds 48 (avg 70) · 75% · 99 ✗
vs
#2 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6-1 · SOS #49
Win 28-24
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 11.9
Total 52.5
DraftKings
ND -10.5
Total 47.5
Final BYU by 4. BYU beat the spread. 52 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Notre Dame -10.5 · O/U 47.25 (open 51.25) · ML -425 / +325 · BYU 23% no-vig · model vs market -1.4 pts, -1 pct pts (BYU view)
Game-time weather: Haze, 64°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPVU)
ABC LaVell Edwards Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesFavorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: hit (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · B. Bachmeier QB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 48) · 78% · 45 ✓L. Glasker WR · Low rec yds 48 (avg 76) · 77% · 66 ✓M. Gilbert WR · Low rec yds 44 (avg 63) · 74% · 31 ✓
at
UCF Knights
4-3 · SOS #35
Loss 31-39
Week 8
Our number· pregame
BYU by 10.7
Total 48.5
DraftKings
BYU -7.5
Total 43.5
Final UCF by 8. UCF beat the spread. 70 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: BYU -7.5 · O/U 43.5 · ML -310 / +250 · UCF 26% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, -2 pct pts (UCF view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 73°F, Wind 13 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KORL)
Fox Acrisure Bounce House
Pregame calls · how each did
Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded gamesOur total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: hit (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
vs
Arizona State Sun Devils
4-3 · SOS #37
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 35-18 · 87%
Our number
BYU by 17
Total 53
DraftKings
BYU -16.5
Total 48.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: BYU -16.5 · O/U 48.5 · ML +535 / -765 · BYU 85% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +2 pct pts (BYU view)
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance showers and thunderstorms, 59°F, Wind 3 mph S, 14% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
Fox LaVell Edwards Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded games (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · K. Brown RB · Low rush yds 33 (avg 48) · 75%Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · C. Boley QB · Low rush yds 10 (avg 9) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · C. Mack RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 67) · 75%
at
#6 Utah Utes
7-0 · SOS #64
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 26-27 · 46%
Our number
Utah by 1
Total 53
DraftKings
UTAH -3
Total 51.5
We're 2 points higher on BYU than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -3 · O/U 51.5 · ML +120 / -142 · Utah 56% no-vig · model vs market -2.0 pts, -3 pct pts (Utah view)
Rice-Eccles Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank
B. Bachmeier QB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 46) · 70%W. Parker RB · TD threat 68%
vs
Baylor Bears
4-3 · SOS #63
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 31-20 · 78%
Our number
BYU by 11
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
LaVell Edwards Stadium
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · D. Pendergrass RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 47) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · C. Knighten RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 43) · 75%B. Bachmeier QB · High pass yds 237 (avg 216) · 53%
at
Kansas Jayhawks
3-4 · SOS #62
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 31-22 · 73%
Our number
BYU by 9
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
vs
Cincinnati Bearcats
5-2 · SOS #41
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 35-21 · 82%
Our number
BYU by 14
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
LaVell Edwards Stadium
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · J. French IV QB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 42) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · C. Tabb RB · Low rush yds 71 (avg 89) · 75%B. Bachmeier QB · High pass yds 247 (avg 216) · 56%

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BYU Cougars stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+15.0

12th in FBS

Adj. offense

33.8

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

18.8

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	33.1	40 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	18.6	26 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.71	23 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	4.87	18 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	197.6	35 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	223.1	70 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	110.7	13 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	204.6	64 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.57	30 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.86	68 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.71	95 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	0.57	5 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.16	38 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.01	48 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	48.6%	20 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	38.3%	34 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.1%	61 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	9.1%	10 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	14.5%	63 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	9.8%	9 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	5.02	10 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.94	84 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 30	61 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 29	66 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	62.7	100 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.11	51 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.22	28 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.04	75 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.02	39 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	49.3%	17 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	47.8%	26 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	15.8%	43 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	31.4%	64 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	30.7%	79 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	55.8%	4 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	42.0%	101 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	76.7%	8 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	66.7%	102 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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