Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected BYU 34.4, Iowa State 18 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: BYU wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.4 points and 52.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds.
Iowa State is 3-2, scoring 33.6 and allowing 21.2 points per game (+12.4 per game). BYU (No. 8) is 4-0, scoring 37.3 and allowing 14.3 points per game (+23 per game).
Expect Iowa State to find it hard going: BYU's elite defense (11th) outranks Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.7 points against an average defense). BYU's strong offense (17th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Iowa State's middle-of-the-pack defense (68th); that mismatch is where most of BYU's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Iowa State by 6 and BYU by 39 about 80% of the time.
BYU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour BYU by about 14.3. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Iowa State 10, BYU 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.4 points and the total by 18.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Iowa State / BYU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | BYU -12.75 → BYU -11.25 | 49 → 46.5 | +345 / -455 |
| DraftKings | BYU -14.5 → BYU -11.5 | 50.5 → 46.5 | +360 / -470 |
| Bovada | BYU -11 | 47.5 → 46.5 | +330 / -440 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | BYU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | BYU -16.5 | 52.4 | 86% |
| Market consensus | BYU -11.5 | 46.5 | 78% |
| Blended projection | BYU -12 | 47.9 | 80% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- BYU win probability
- model 86% · market (no-vig) 78% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model BYU -16.4 · market BYU -11.25 · difference +5.1 pts (BYU view)
- Total
- model 52.4 · market 46.5 · difference +5.9
Model margin is 5.1 pts more toward BYU than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Iowa State 18.0, BYU 34.4 | BYU 86%right winner | 2.4 | 18.4 |
| New formula | Iowa State 17.4, BYU 35.1 | BYU 88%right winner | 3.7 | 18.5 |
Final: Iowa State 10, BYU 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Iowa State vs BYU: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Iowa State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.6#53 | 37.3#29 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.2#53 | 14.3#17 |
| Yards per play | 6.28#62 | 7.02#19 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63#77 | 5.04#33 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.6#41 | 241.0#14 |
| Net passing yards per game | 192.4#100 | 185.3#105 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 168.6#92 | 90.8#9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 167.0#28 | 208.0#75 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.60#43 | 0.50#33 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#53 | 1.50#18 |
| Sacks per game | 1.80#78 | 2.00#60 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#22 | 0.75#12 |
| Stat | Iowa State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.13#50 | +0.16#39 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.03#65 | -0.11#11 |
| Success rate | 42.2%#82 | 48.7%#18 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.3%#57 | 36.0%#21 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.9%#46 | 13.6%#54 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#61 | 10.8%#41 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#48 | 15.5%#35 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.4%#129 | 11.0%#25 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.67#35 | 4.94#13 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.70#62 | 3.67#60 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#98 | own 33#30 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#90 | own 27#44 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.6#99 | 60.8#111 |
| Stat | Iowa State | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#90 | +0.18#17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.25#33 | +0.13#59 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#96 | -0.06#32 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04#45 | -0.16#12 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.1%#104 | 55.7%#4 |
| Passing success rate | 44.8%#58 | 46.5%#38 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.0%#108 | 15.2%#50 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.3%#57 | 27.6%#104 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 20.5%#4 | 30.5%#81 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.7%#110 | 59.6%#4 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.8%#24 | 43.1%#108 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.8%#44 | 76.1%#14 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.7%#118 | 69.7%#108 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Iowa State schedule · BYU schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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