Matchup analysis
Our model projects BYU 31, Baylor 20 at LaVell Edwards Stadium in Week 11. That is a solid edge: BYU wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.6 points and 51.2 combined points.
Baylor is 4-3 against the 63rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.1 and allowing 16.1 points per game (+13 per game). BYU (No. 8) is 6-1 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.1 and allowing 18.6 points per game (+14.5 per game).
BYU's strong defense (15th) should limit Baylor's middle-of-the-pack offense (52nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.6 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: BYU's strong offense (18th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.8 points against an average defense) against Baylor's strong defense (41st).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Baylor by 11 and BYU by 34 about 80% of the time.
BYU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour BYU by about 9.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Baylor vs BYU: stat comparison
| Stat | Baylor | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.1#67 | 33.1#40 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.1#19 | 18.6#26 |
| Yards per play | 5.60#107 | 6.71#23 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.70#11 | 4.87#18 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.4#76 | 197.6#35 |
| Net passing yards per game | 273.9#20 | 223.1#70 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 124.9#28 | 110.7#13 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.3#88 | 204.6#64 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.29#126 | 0.57#30 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.57#10 | 0.86#68 |
| Sacks per game | 4.00#2 | 1.71#95 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#83 | 0.57#5 |
| Stat | Baylor | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#113 | +0.16#38 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#7 | +0.01#48 |
| Success rate | 38.4%#123 | 48.6%#20 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.9%#14 | 38.3%#34 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2%#83 | 13.1%#61 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.4%#33 | 9.1%#10 |
| Havoc rate | 18.7%#4 | 14.5%#63 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#85 | 9.8%#9 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.16#129 | 5.02#10 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.05#10 | 3.94#84 |
| Average starting field position | own 33#16 | own 30#61 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#63 | own 29#66 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 78.3#3 | 62.7#100 |
| Stat | Baylor | BYU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#122 | +0.11#51 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#86 | +0.22#28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.11#9 | +0.04#75 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11#20 | -0.02#39 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3%#104 | 49.3%#17 |
| Passing success rate | 36.9%#115 | 47.8%#26 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#51 | 15.8%#43 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#61 | 31.4%#64 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.9%#24 | 30.7%#79 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#84 | 55.8%#4 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.7%#40 | 42.0%#101 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 48.3%#125 | 76.7%#8 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.1%#4 | 66.7%#102 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Baylor schedule · BYU schedule · all Week 11 projections
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