Week 11 College Football Projections (2026)
Updated Oct 29, 2026
Week 11 of the 2026 college football season has 67 FBS games on our board. The closest projected matchup is Utah at Arizona (0.3-point margin), the highest projected total is North Texas at UTSA (74 points) and the lowest is Wyoming at UTEP (42.3). 21 games are rated a toss-up (neither side above 58%).
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Every FBS game
CSV download · Sports Pro- Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM EST
Akron17We project Western Michigan 35-17, a 17.3-point margin with 52 total points; Western Michigan wins 87% of the time.
Our number
Western Michigan by 17.3
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Western Michigan 87% · total 52Full preview → - Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM EST
We project Bowling Green 25-19, a 6.3-point margin with 44.7 total points; Bowling Green wins 66% of the time.
Our number
Bowling Green by 6.3
Total 44.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bowling Green 66% · total 44.7Full preview → - Tue, Nov 10, 7:00 PM EST
Ohio26We project Ohio 26-23, a 2.9-point margin with 49.5 total points; Ohio wins 58% of the time.
Our number
Ohio by 2.9
Total 49.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ohio 58% · total 49.5Full preview → - Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
Buffalo28We project Buffalo 28-26, a 1.5-point margin with 54.2 total points; Buffalo wins 54% of the time.
Our number
Buffalo by 1.5
Total 54.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Buffalo 54% · total 54.2Full preview → - Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
We project Central Michigan 31-15, a 15.3-point margin with 45.9 total points; Central Michigan wins 84% of the time.
Our number
Central Michigan by 15.3
Total 45.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Central Michigan 84% · total 45.9Full preview → - Wed, Nov 11 · TBD
Toledo37We project Toledo 37-18, a 18.6-point margin with 54.7 total points; Toledo wins 89% of the time.
Our number
Toledo by 18.6
Total 54.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Toledo 89% · total 54.7Full preview → - Thu, Nov 12, 8:00 PM ESTESPN
Memphis26We project South Florida 27-26, a 1.1-point margin with 53.1 total points; South Florida wins 53% of the time.
Our number
South Florida by 1.1
Total 53.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
South Florida 53% · total 53.1Full preview → - Thu, Nov 12, 9:00 PM ESTESPN2
We project Louisiana 32-19, a 13-point margin with 51.9 total points; Louisiana wins 80% of the time.
Our number
Louisiana by 13
Total 51.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisiana 80% · total 51.9Full preview → - Fri, Nov 13, 7:00 PM ESTESPN
We project Pittsburgh 30-28, a 1.3-point margin with 58 total points; Pittsburgh wins 53% of the time.
Our number
Pittsburgh by 1.3
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Pittsburgh 53% · total 58Full preview → - Fri, Nov 13, 9:00 PM ESTFox
Illinois23
UCLA29We project UCLA 29-23, a 5.5-point margin with 51.6 total points; UCLA wins 64% of the time.
Our number
UCLA by 5.5
Total 51.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UCLA 64% · total 51.6Full preview → - Fri, Nov 13, 10:15 PM ESTESPN
Houston32
Colorado20We project Houston 32-20, a 12.3-point margin with 52.5 total points; Houston wins 79% of the time.
Our number
Houston by 12.3
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Houston 79% · total 52.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Duke16
Miami40We project Miami 40-16, a 24.1-point margin with 56.8 total points; Miami wins 94% of the time.
Our number
Miami by 24.1
Total 56.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Miami 94% · total 56.8Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project Ohio State 37-14, a 22.5-point margin with 50.5 total points; Ohio State wins 93% of the time.
Our number
Ohio State by 22.5
Total 50.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ohio State 93% · total 50.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Missouri19
Georgia34We project Georgia 34-19, a 15.2-point margin with 52.2 total points; Georgia wins 84% of the time.
Our number
Georgia by 15.2
Total 52.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Georgia 84% · total 52.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
USC20
Indiana33We project Indiana 33-20, a 13.4-point margin with 52.5 total points; Indiana wins 81% of the time.
Our number
Indiana by 13.4
Total 52.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Indiana 81% · total 52.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Utah26
Arizona27We project Arizona 27-26, a 0.3-point margin with 53.2 total points; Arizona wins 51% of the time.
Our number
dead even
Total 53.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Arizona 51% · total 53.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Baylor20
BYU31We project BYU 31-20, a 11.6-point margin with 51.2 total points; BYU wins 78% of the time.
Our number
BYU by 11.6
Total 51.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
BYU 78% · total 51.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Florida29
Kentucky29We project Florida 29-29, a 0.6-point margin with 58.3 total points; Florida wins 52% of the time.
Our number
Florida by 0.6
Total 58.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Florida 52% · total 58.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Alabama38We project Alabama 38-18, a 20-point margin with 56 total points; Alabama wins 90% of the time.
Our number
Alabama by 20
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Alabama 90% · total 56Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Texas24
LSU27We project LSU 27-24, a 3-point margin with 50.4 total points; LSU wins 58% of the time.
Our number
LSU by 3
Total 50.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
LSU 58% · total 50.4Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Ole Miss26
Oklahoma23We project Ole Miss 26-23, a 2.9-point margin with 49.1 total points; Ole Miss wins 57% of the time.
Our number
Ole Miss by 2.9
Total 49.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ole Miss 57% · total 49.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project Texas Tech 34-26, a 8.5-point margin with 60.1 total points; Texas Tech wins 71% of the time.
Our number
Texas Tech by 8.5
Total 60.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texas Tech 71% · total 60.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
SMU27We project Wake Forest 27-27, a 0.5-point margin with 54.5 total points; Wake Forest wins 51% of the time.
Our number
Wake Forest by 0.5
Total 54.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Wake Forest 51% · total 54.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project Tennessee 25-24, a 1.3-point margin with 49.6 total points; Tennessee wins 53% of the time.
Our number
Tennessee by 1.3
Total 49.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Tennessee 53% · total 49.6Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Maryland19We project Wisconsin 28-19, a 8.9-point margin with 46.6 total points; Wisconsin wins 72% of the time.
Our number
Wisconsin by 8.9
Total 46.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Wisconsin 72% · total 46.6Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
UCF30We project UCF 30-24, a 6.3-point margin with 54 total points; UCF wins 66% of the time.
Our number
UCF by 6.3
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UCF 66% · total 54Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project Cincinnati 28-27, a 0.9-point margin with 54.3 total points; Cincinnati wins 52% of the time.
Our number
Cincinnati by 0.9
Total 54.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Cincinnati 52% · total 54.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Kansas34We project Kansas 34-32, a 2.5-point margin with 65.7 total points; Kansas wins 56% of the time.
Our number
Kansas by 2.5
Total 65.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kansas 56% · total 65.7Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
TCU25We project TCU 25-22, a 2.2-point margin with 47.1 total points; TCU wins 56% of the time.
Our number
TCU by 2.2
Total 47.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
TCU 56% · total 47.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Arkansas21We project South Carolina 33-21, a 11.9-point margin with 54.4 total points; South Carolina wins 78% of the time.
Our number
South Carolina by 11.9
Total 54.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
South Carolina 78% · total 54.4Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Auburn27We project Mississippi State 28-27, a 0.8-point margin with 55.4 total points; Mississippi State wins 52% of the time.
Our number
Mississippi State by 0.8
Total 55.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Mississippi State 52% · total 55.4Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Virginia31We project Virginia 31-19, a 12.1-point margin with 49.3 total points; Virginia wins 79% of the time.
Our number
Virginia by 12.1
Total 49.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Virginia 79% · total 49.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Clemson29We project Clemson 29-21, a 8.1-point margin with 49.8 total points; Clemson wins 70% of the time.
Our number
Clemson by 8.1
Total 49.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Clemson 70% · total 49.8Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project Louisville 29-24, a 4.9-point margin with 53.9 total points; Louisville wins 63% of the time.
Our number
Louisville by 4.9
Total 53.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisville 63% · total 53.9Full preview →
- Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Stanford18We project Virginia Tech 36-18, a 17.7-point margin with 54.1 total points; Virginia Tech wins 88% of the time.
Our number
Virginia Tech by 17.7
Total 54.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Virginia Tech 88% · total 54.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Syracuse30
NC State33We project NC State 33-30, a 3.2-point margin with 62.9 total points; NC State wins 58% of the time.
Our number
NC State by 3.2
Total 62.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
NC State 58% · total 62.9Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Purdue16
Iowa37We project Iowa 37-16, a 20.5-point margin with 53.1 total points; Iowa wins 91% of the time.
Our number
Iowa by 20.5
Total 53.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Iowa 91% · total 53.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project Washington 28-21, a 7.4-point margin with 49.2 total points; Washington wins 69% of the time.
Our number
Washington by 7.4
Total 49.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Washington 69% · total 49.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Michigan16
Oregon30We project Oregon 30-16, a 14.3-point margin with 45.9 total points; Oregon wins 83% of the time.
Our number
Oregon by 14.3
Total 45.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Oregon 83% · total 45.9Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project Penn State 25-19, a 6.1-point margin with 43.7 total points; Penn State wins 66% of the time.
Our number
Penn State by 6.1
Total 43.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Penn State 66% · total 43.7Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Nebraska37
Rutgers22We project Nebraska 37-22, a 14.8-point margin with 58.2 total points; Nebraska wins 83% of the time.
Our number
Nebraska by 14.8
Total 58.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Nebraska 83% · total 58.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project East Carolina 35-18, a 17.7-point margin with 53 total points; East Carolina wins 88% of the time.
Our number
East Carolina by 17.7
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
East Carolina 88% · total 53Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Tulsa36We project Tulsa 36-30, a 6.5-point margin with 66.4 total points; Tulsa wins 66% of the time.
Our number
Tulsa by 6.5
Total 66.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Tulsa 66% · total 66.4Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
UTSA38We project UTSA 38-36, a 2.5-point margin with 74 total points; UTSA wins 57% of the time.
Our number
UTSA by 2.5
Total 74
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
UTSA 57% · total 74Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Tulane25
Rice18We project Tulane 25-18, a 6.4-point margin with 42.6 total points; Tulane wins 66% of the time.
Our number
Tulane by 6.4
Total 42.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Tulane 66% · total 42.6Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
UAB25
Temple29We project Temple 29-25, a 3.8-point margin with 53.5 total points; Temple wins 60% of the time.
Our number
Temple by 3.8
Total 53.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Temple 60% · total 53.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBDMW+
Nevada30We project Nevada 30-21, a 9.1-point margin with 51 total points; Nevada wins 73% of the time.
Our number
Nevada by 9.1
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Nevada 73% · total 51Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Wyoming27
UTEP15We project Wyoming 27-15, a 12.5-point margin with 42.3 total points; Wyoming wins 79% of the time.
Our number
Wyoming by 12.5
Total 42.3
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Wyoming 79% · total 42.3Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Marshall27We project App State 28-27, a 0.8-point margin with 55.1 total points; App State wins 52% of the time.
Our number
App State by 0.8
Total 55.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
App State 52% · total 55.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project Arkansas State 28-27, a 0.5-point margin with 54.6 total points; Arkansas State wins 51% of the time.
Our number
Arkansas State by 0.5
Total 54.6
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Arkansas State 51% · total 54.6Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project Georgia Southern 29-29, a 0.4-point margin with 57.9 total points; Georgia Southern wins 51% of the time.
Our number
dead even
Total 57.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Georgia Southern 51% · total 57.9Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
We project Louisiana Tech 35-19, a 15.1-point margin with 54 total points; Louisiana Tech wins 84% of the time.
Our number
Louisiana Tech by 15.1
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louisiana Tech 84% · total 54Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Troy27We project South Alabama 32-27, a 5.6-point margin with 59.4 total points; South Alabama wins 64% of the time.
Our number
South Alabama by 5.6
Total 59.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
South Alabama 64% · total 59.4Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 12:00 PM ESTCBSSN
UConn25We project James Madison 34-25, a 9.3-point margin with 59.2 total points; James Madison wins 73% of the time.
Our number
James Madison by 9.3
Total 59.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
James Madison 73% · total 59.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 PM EST
We project Kennesaw State 25-19, a 5.8-point margin with 44.7 total points; Kennesaw State wins 65% of the time.
Our number
Kennesaw State by 5.8
Total 44.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kennesaw State 65% · total 44.7Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST
We project Missouri State 27-25, a 1.5-point margin with 51.8 total points; Missouri State wins 54% of the time.
Our number
Missouri State by 1.5
Total 51.8
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Missouri State 54% · total 51.8Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 3:00 PM EST
Delaware26We project Delaware 26-24, a 2.5-point margin with 50.2 total points; Delaware wins 57% of the time.
Our number
Delaware by 2.5
Total 50.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Delaware 57% · total 50.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ESTNBC
We project Notre Dame 42-9, a 33.2-point margin with 51.2 total points; Notre Dame wins 99% of the time.
Our number
Notre Dame by 33.2
Total 51.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Notre Dame 99% · total 51.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM EST
We project Jacksonville State 28-23, a 4.5-point margin with 51 total points; Jacksonville State wins 62% of the time.
Our number
Jacksonville State by 4.5
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Jacksonville State 62% · total 51Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 3:30 PM ESTCBSSN
Liberty36We project Liberty 36-14, a 22.3-point margin with 49.9 total points; Liberty wins 93% of the time.
Our number
Liberty by 22.3
Total 49.9
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Liberty 93% · total 49.9Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 4:00 PM ESTCW
We project Texas State 32-26, a 6.3-point margin with 58.5 total points; Texas State wins 66% of the time.
Our number
Texas State by 6.3
Total 58.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Texas State 66% · total 58.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 6:00 PM ESTUSA Net
We project Boise State 35-25, a 10.8-point margin with 60.1 total points; Boise State wins 76% of the time.
Our number
Boise State by 10.8
Total 60.1
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Boise State 76% · total 60.1Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM ESTCBSSN
We project Air Force 30-20, a 10.4-point margin with 50.4 total points; Air Force wins 75% of the time.
Our number
Air Force by 10.4
Total 50.4
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Air Force 75% · total 50.4Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 7:30 PM ESTCW
UNLV19We project New Mexico 31-19, a 11.2-point margin with 50 total points; New Mexico wins 77% of the time.
Our number
New Mexico by 11.2
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
New Mexico 77% · total 50Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 9:30 PM ESTUSA Net
We project Utah State 26-24, a 1.3-point margin with 50.2 total points; Utah State wins 53% of the time.
Our number
Utah State by 1.3
Total 50.2
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Utah State 53% · total 50.2Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 10:30 PM ESTCBSSN
We project Washington State 34-29, a 4.5-point margin with 62.5 total points; Washington State wins 62% of the time.
Our number
Washington State by 4.5
Total 62.5
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Washington State 62% · total 62.5Full preview → - Sat, Nov 14, 11:00 PM ESTCW
Hawai'i16We project North Dakota State 30-16, a 14-point margin with 45.7 total points; North Dakota State wins 82% of the time.
Our number
North Dakota State by 14
Total 45.7
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
North Dakota State 82% · total 45.7Full preview →
How these numbers are made
Each team gets opponent-adjusted offense and defense ratings for points, expected points added per play and success rate, built from every snap of play-by-play with garbage time removed. Early in the season the ratings lean on a preseason prior (last two seasons, returning production, roster talent); every game played shifts them toward this year. A fitted model turns the rating gaps plus home field (about 2 points, more in the opening weeks) and rest into a margin and a total, and the margin into a calibrated win probability. See the methodology and track record and the season scorecard for how the model has actually done.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.