2026 schedule

Sam Houston Bearkats

1-7SOS #118

2026 season so far

Sam Houston is 1-7 against the 118th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 18 and allowing 25.1 points per game (-7.1 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Sam Houston ranks 136th of 139 FBS teams overall — 137th on offense and 123rd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at Jacksonville State in Week 10. We project Sam Houston 15, Jacksonville State 32 — Sam Houston wins 14% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
Troy Trojans
1-0 · SOS #113
Loss 21-24
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Troy by 13.3
Total 52.3
DraftKings
TROY -15.5
Total 52.5
Final Troy by 3. Sam Houston beat the spread. 45 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Troy -16 (open Troy -17.25) · O/U 52.75 (open 50.5) · ML +650 / -1075 · Troy 87% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -7 pct pts (Troy view)
ESPN+ Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
vs
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
2-0 · SOS #98
Loss 17-23
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Tulsa by 4
Total 50.8
DraftKings
TLSA -12.5
Total 51.5
Final Tulsa by 6. Sam Houston beat the spread. 40 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tulsa -12 · O/U 51.75 (open 52.75) · ML -550 / +402.5 · Sam Houston 19% no-vig · model vs market +8.0 pts, +21 pct pts (Sam Houston view)
ESPN+ Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
vs
Nicholls Colonels
2-2 · SOS #72
Win 59-0
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Sam Houston by 33.6
Total 54.2
DraftKings
SHSU -21
Total 50.5
Final Sam Houston by 59. Sam Houston beat the spread. 59 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Sam Houston -21 (open Sam Houston -17.5) · O/U 51 (open 49.25) · ML +625 / -1000 · Sam Houston 87% no-vig · model vs market +12.6 pts, +12 pct pts (Sam Houston view)
ESPN+ Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
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#11 Texas Tech Red Raiders
4-0 · SOS #74
Loss 14-49
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Texas Tech by 27.5
Total 53.7
DraftKings
TTU -34.5
Total 55.5
Final Texas Tech by 35. Texas Tech beat the spread. 63 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas Tech -34.5 (open Texas Tech -36.5) · O/U 55.75 (open 54.75) · model vs market -7.0 pts (Texas Tech view)
TNT Galaxy Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · L. Locke QB · Low rush yds 4 (avg -12) · 75% · 25 ✗Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. McCaskill RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 47) · 75% · 25 ✓C. Reed WR · Low rec yds 46 (avg 68) · 73% · 16 ✓
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Liberty Flames
5-1 · SOS #134
Loss 3-35
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Liberty by 12
Total 51.2
DraftKings
LIB -13.5
Total 52.5
Final Liberty by 32. Liberty beat the spread. 38 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Liberty -13.5 (open Liberty -13.75) · O/U 52.75 (open 52.5) · ML +417.5 / -575 · Liberty 82% no-vig · model vs market -1.5 pts, -3 pct pts (Liberty view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLYH)
ESPNU Williams Stadium (VA)
Pregame calls · how each did
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · A. McCaskill RB · Low rush yds 40 (avg 41) · 75% · 36 ✓M. Jackson WR · Low rec yds 64 (avg 94) · 72% · 46 ✓L. Locke QB · Low pass yds 249 (avg 292) · 67% · 138 ✓
vs
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
3-4 · SOS #89
Loss 3-16
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Western Kentucky by 1.4
Total 52.8
DraftKings
WKU -1.5
Total 53.5
Final Western Kentucky by 13. Western Kentucky beat the spread. 19 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Kentucky -1.25 · O/U 53.5 (open 51.5) · ML -113.5 / -106.5 · Sam Houston 49% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, -3 pct pts (Sam Houston view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly clear, 86°F, Wind 10 mph SE, 3% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 11, 8:43 AM EDT · last stored copy
ESPN Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open Big-yardage short dogShort dog · much better YPP · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 218 hits, 191 misses (53% hit rate) over 409 graded games · 2026: 13-12Short dog · much better YPP: missed
vs
New Mexico State Aggies
3-4 · SOS #114
Loss 24-30
Week 8
Our number· pregame
New Mexico State by 2.1
Total 46.7
DraftKings
NMSU -3
Total 46.5
Final New Mexico State by 6. New Mexico State beat the spread. 54 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: New Mexico State -3 · O/U 46.5 · ML -162 / +132 · Sam Houston 42% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, +3 pct pts (Sam Houston view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KUTS)
ESPN2 Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: missed (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 7-8Short dog · fav lost, weak D: missed
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: hit (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank TD-shy dog vs sloppy fav under2026 combo · Held up Under: Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnderdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: missed (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
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Missouri State Bears
3-5 · SOS #108
Loss 3-24
Week 9
Our number· pregame
Missouri State by 4.5
Total 52.5
DraftKings
MOST -5.5
Total 51.5
Final Missouri State by 21. Missouri State beat the spread. 27 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Missouri State -5.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML +175 / -210 · Missouri State 66% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Missouri State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 67°F, Wind 7 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSGF)
ESPN2 Robert W. Plaster Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
I. Myers WR · TD threat 74% · 1 ✓I. Myers WR · Low rec yds 95 (avg 133) · 74% · 77 ✓
at
Jacksonville State Gamecocks
6-2 · SOS #119
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 15-32 · 14%
Our number
Jacksonville State by 17
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN AmFirst Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · A. McCaskill RB · Low rush yds 27 (avg 29) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · M. Dowdy RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 29) · 77%T. Burns Jr. WR · Low rec yds 39 (avg 56) · 74%
vs
Kennesaw State Owls
2-6 · SOS #96
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 19-25 · 35%
Our number
Kennesaw State by 6
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
vs
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders
4-4 · SOS #125
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 24-23 · 51%
Our number
Sam Houston by 1
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
at
Florida International Panthers
3-4 · SOS #137
Sat, Nov 28, 7:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 13-25 · 22%
Our number
Florida International by 12
Total 38
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Pitbull Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · A. McCaskill RB · Low rush yds 24 (avg 29) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · M. Dowdy RB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 29) · 77%T. Burns Jr. WR · Low rec yds 39 (avg 56) · 75%

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Sam Houston Bearkats stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-19.6

135th in FBS

Adj. offense

13.7

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

33.3

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	18.0	131 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	25.1	78 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.53	109 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.31	50 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	104.7	136 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	242.0	49 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	213.0	128 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	134.1	2 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.86	66 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.71	98 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.71	100 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.43	111 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	-0.05	129 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.05	28 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	40.1%	110 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	40.0%	57 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	11.0%	116 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	12.5%	85 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.4%	35 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	18.0%	136 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	2.89	133 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.82	71 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 28	101 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 30	88 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	62.7	101 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.07	128 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.03	116 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.04	73 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.16	8 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	36.4%	130 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	37.9%	110 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	22.5%	133 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	28.6%	100 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	27.8%	48 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	35.6%	110 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	31.6%	13 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	49.3%	122 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	58.7%	69 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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