Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas Tech 40.6, Sam Houston 13.1 at Galaxy Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Texas Tech wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.5 points and 53.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Sam Houston is 1-2, scoring 32.3 and allowing 15.7 points per game (+16.6 per game). Texas Tech (No. 11) is 3-0, scoring 32 and allowing 20 points per game (+12 per game).
Texas Tech's strong defense (17th) should limit Sam Houston's below-average offense (115th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.8 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Texas Tech's strong offense (20th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.9 points against an average defense) against Sam Houston's below-average defense (109th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Texas Tech by 5 and Texas Tech by 50 about 80% of the time.
Texas Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas Tech by about 25.4. The game is on TNT.
Result: Sam Houston 14, Texas Tech 49. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 7.5 points and the total by 9.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Sam Houston / Texas Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas Tech -36.5 → Texas Tech -34.5 | 54.75 → 55.75 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Texas Tech -37.5 → Texas Tech -34.5 | 54.5 → 55.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Texas Tech -35.5 → Texas Tech -34.5 | 55 → 56 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas Tech -27.5 | 53.7 | 96% |
| Market consensus | Texas Tech -34.5 | 55.8 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Texas Tech -33.5 | 56.0 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas Tech win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Texas Tech -27.5 · market Texas Tech -34.5 · difference -7.0 pts (Texas Tech view)
- Total
- model 53.7 · market 55.75 · difference -2.0
Model margin is 7.0 pts more toward Sam Houston than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Sam Houston 13.1, Texas Tech 40.6 | Texas Tech 96%right winner | 7.5 | 9.3 |
| New formula | Sam Houston 12.1, Texas Tech 41.2 | Texas Tech 97%right winner | 5.9 | 9.6 |
Final: Sam Houston 14, Texas Tech 49. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Sam Houston vs Texas Tech: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Sam Houston | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.3#65 | 32.0#66 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.7#30 | 20.0#58 |
| Yards per play | 6.66#53 | 6.05#80 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.49#22 | 5.57#80 |
| Rushing yards per game | 131.3#117 | 174.7#71 |
| Net passing yards per game | 330.3#10 | 240.7#59 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 199.7#123 | 115.0#39 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 94.0#4 | 265.3#123 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33#36 | 1.33#108 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.33#125 | 1.00#51 |
| Sacks per game | 3.00#21 | 2.67#24 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.67#121 | 2.00#94 |
| Stat | Sam Houston | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06#85 | +0.16#44 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#28 | +0.03#66 |
| Success rate | 46.5%#35 | 47.6%#28 |
| Success rate allowed | 33.2%#13 | 38.0%#41 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.2%#108 | 13.6%#56 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#62 | 11.2%#63 |
| Havoc rate | 17.8%#17 | 12.8%#95 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.2%#124 | 14.7%#102 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.17#79 | 4.94#24 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.92#13 | 3.00#18 |
| Average starting field position | own 26#127 | own 30#76 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#84 | own 24#11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.3#41 | 68.7#44 |
| Stat | Sam Houston | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.12#133 | +0.11#53 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16#58 | +0.21#50 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17#122 | +0.07#98 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.32#1 | +0.00#64 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6%#58 | 47.5%#46 |
| Passing success rate | 47.7%#43 | 47.8%#42 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.0%#88 | 15.5%#52 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.2%#39 | 34.5%#47 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.0%#21 | 33.3%#107 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.7%#46 | 51.3%#21 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 24.4%#8 | 42.2%#95 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.4%#66 | 70.0%#44 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 42.8%#18 | 42.9%#19 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Sam Houston schedule · Texas Tech schedule · all Week 4 projections
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