2026 schedule
Texas Tech Red Raiders
2026 season so far
Texas Tech (No. 13) is 6-1 against the 71st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+15.5 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Texas Tech ranks 14th of 139 FBS teams overall — 14th on offense and 24th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: vs Arizona in Week 9. We project Texas Tech 29, Arizona 25 — Texas Tech wins 60% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
Abilene Christian Wildcats
0-2 · SOS #12
Win 33-10
Week 1
Our number· model now
Texas Tech by 33
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 23. 43 points. No book line was saved for this game.
FS1 Galaxy Stadium - at
Oregon State Beavers
0-2 · SOS #87
Win 35-24
Week 2
Our number· model now
Texas Tech by 7
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 11. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
CBS Reser Stadium - vs
#22 Houston Cougars
2-1 · SOS #24
Win 28-26
Week 3
Our number· model now
Texas Tech by 5
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 2. 54 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Fox Galaxy Stadium - vs
Sam Houston Bearkats
1-3 · SOS #112
Win 49-14
Week 4
Our number· model now
Texas Tech by 36
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 35. 63 points. No book line was saved for this game.
TNT Galaxy Stadium - at
Colorado Buffaloes
2-3 · SOS #15
Win 29-7
Week 5
Our number· model now
Texas Tech by 15
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 22. 36 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Fox Folsom Field - vs
Arizona State Sun Devils
3-3 · SOS #57
Win 53-25
Week 7
Our number· model now
Texas Tech by 16
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Tech by 28. 78 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Fox Galaxy Stadium - at
Cincinnati Bearcats
5-2 · SOS #50
Loss 24-37
Week 8
Our number· model now
Texas Tech by 9
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Cincinnati by 13. 61 points. No book line was saved for this game.
FS1 Nippert Stadium - vs
#22 Arizona Wildcats
6-1 · SOS #82
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 29-25 · 60%
Our number
Texas Tech by 4
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Galaxy Stadium - vs
West Virginia Mountaineers
5-3 · SOS #41
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 42-25 · 87%
Our number
Texas Tech by 17
Total 67
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Galaxy Stadium - at
#24 Oklahoma State Cowboys
5-2 · SOS #60
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 34-25 · 71%
Our number
Texas Tech by 9
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Boone Pickens Stadium - at
Baylor Bears
4-3 · SOS #75
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 30-24 · 66%
Our number
Texas Tech by 6
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
McLane Stadium - vs
TCU Horned Frogs
3-4 · SOS #45
Fri, Nov 27, 1:00 AM
Week 13
Proj 29-18 · 78%
Our number
Texas Tech by 11
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Galaxy Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Texas Tech Red Raiders stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+13.8
16th in FBS
Adj. offense
34.6
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
20.7
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 35.9 | 26 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 20.4 | 36 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.14 | 56 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.69 | 74 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 197.9 | 34 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 215.9 | 80 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 125.4 | 29 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 274.0 | 132 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.29 | 122 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 2.00 | 4 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.86 | 14 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.86 | 67 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.09 | 66 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.08 | 16 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 47.4% | 28 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 38.6% | 37 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.0% | 34 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.9% | 91 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.8% | 48 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 16.6% | 131 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.14 | 64 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.40 | 33 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 32 | 22 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 26 | 22 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.4 | 55 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.10 | 54 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.07 | 76 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.08 | 20 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.08 | 28 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 48.9% | 22 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 45.8% | 39 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.1% | 86 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 34.4% | 35 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.4% | 98 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 39.5% | 88 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 39.4% | 78 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 53.6% | 114 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 61.1% | 78 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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