Matchup analysis
Our model projects Texas Tech 30, TCU 18 at Galaxy Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Texas Tech wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.5 points and 47.7 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
TCU is 3-4 against the 55th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 13.9 points per game (+9.5 per game). Texas Tech (No. 13) is 6-1 against the 74th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+15.5 per game).
Expect TCU to find it hard going: Texas Tech's strong defense (26th) outranks TCU's below-average offense (85th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense). Texas Tech's strong offense (14th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.6 points against an average defense) meets TCU's strong defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas Tech puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between TCU by 11 and Texas Tech by 34 about 80% of the time.
Texas Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas Tech by about 9.4. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (TCU / Texas Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas Tech -16.5 | 55.5 | +625 / -950 |
| DraftKings | Texas Tech -16.5 | 55.5 | +625 / -950 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas Tech -11.5 | 47.7 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Texas Tech -16.5 | 55.5 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Texas Tech -16 | 55.4 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas Tech win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Texas Tech -11.5 · market Texas Tech -16.5 · difference -5.0 pts (Texas Tech view)
- Total
- model 47.7 · market 55.5 · difference -7.8
Model margin is 5.0 pts more toward TCU than the market.
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TCU vs Texas Tech: stat comparison
| Stat | TCU | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4#101 | 35.9#26 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.9#6 | 20.4#36 |
| Yards per play | 6.24#53 | 6.14#56 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.59#8 | 5.69#74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.6#120 | 197.9#34 |
| Net passing yards per game | 289.6#10 | 215.9#80 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 117.4#21 | 125.4#29 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 156.1#10 | 274.0#132 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.43#130 | 1.29#122 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#67 | 2.00#4 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#36 | 2.86#14 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.86#123 | 1.86#67 |
| Stat | TCU | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#112 | +0.09#66 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#21 | -0.08#16 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#79 | 47.4%#28 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.6%#8 | 38.6%#37 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#110 | 14.0%#34 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.5%#7 | 12.9%#91 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#82 | 14.8%#48 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5%#75 | 16.6%#131 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.49#112 | 4.14#64 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.80#66 | 3.40#33 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#45 | own 32#22 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#20 | own 26#22 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.1#57 | 67.4#55 |
| Stat | TCU | Texas Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14#138 | +0.10#54 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#56 | +0.07#76 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#31 | -0.08#20 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#25 | -0.08#28 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4%#110 | 48.9%#22 |
| Passing success rate | 44.1%#53 | 45.8%#39 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1%#85 | 18.1%#86 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.3%#123 | 34.4%#35 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.2%#15 | 31.4%#98 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.8%#49 | 39.5%#88 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.3%#16 | 39.4%#78 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.7%#95 | 53.6%#114 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8%#70 | 61.1%#78 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: TCU schedule · Texas Tech schedule · all Week 13 projections
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