2026 schedule
TCU Horned Frogs
2026 season so far
TCU is 3-4 against the 54th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 13.9 points per game (+9.5 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings TCU ranks 46th of 139 FBS teams overall — 87th on offense and 21st on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: vs Kansas in Week 9. We project TCU 24, Kansas 22 — TCU wins 56% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
North Carolina Tar Heels
1-0 · SOS #12
Loss 10-15
Week 1
Our number· pregame
TCU by 8.1
Total 51.1
Book line
Not posted
Final North Carolina by 5. 25 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN/Disney+ Aviva Stadium - vs
Grambling Tigers
2-1 · SOS #60
Win 63-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
TCU by 34.8
Total 51.2
Book line
Not posted
Final TCU by 56. 70 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Amon G. Carter Stadium - vs
Arkansas State Red Wolves
1-2 · SOS #103
Win 31-7
Week 3
Our number· pregame
TCU by 7.7
Total 54.1
Book line
Not posted
Final TCU by 24. 38 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPNU Amon G. Carter Stadium - at
UCF Knights
3-1 · SOS #34
Loss 13-21
Week 4
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 50.2
Book line
Not posted
Final UCF by 8. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
FS1 Acrisure Bounce House - vs
#10 BYU Cougars
4-0 · SOS #36
Loss 10-17
Week 5
Our number· pregame
BYU by 5.3
Total 51.9
Book line
Not posted
Final BYU by 7. 27 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN/Disney+ Amon G. Carter Stadium - at
Baylor Bears
4-2 · SOS #62
Win 17-6
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Baylor by 2.3
Total 49.7
Book line
Not posted
Final TCU by 11. 23 points. No book line was saved for this game.
FS1 McLane Stadium - vs
West Virginia Mountaineers
5-3 · SOS #56
Loss 20-24
Week 8
Our number· pregame
TCU by 11.8
Total 57.8
Book line
Not posted
Final West Virginia by 4. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN2 Amon G. Carter Stadium - vs
Kansas Jayhawks
3-4 · SOS #61
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 24-22 · 56%
Our number
TCU by 2
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
FS1 Amon G. Carter Stadium - at
#22 Arizona Wildcats
6-1 · SOS #78
Sat, Nov 7, 3:15 AM
Week 10
Proj 18-27 · 27%
Our number
Arizona by 9
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Casino Del Sol Stadium - vs
Kansas State Wildcats
4-3 · SOS #81
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 25-23 · 55%
Our number
TCU by 2
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Amon G. Carter Stadium - vs
#6 Utah Utes
7-0 · SOS #64
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 19-27 · 32%
Our number
Utah by 8
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Amon G. Carter Stadium - at
#13 Texas Tech Red Raiders
6-1 · SOS #71
Fri, Nov 27, 1:00 AM
Week 13
Proj 18-29 · 22%
Our number
Texas Tech by 11
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Galaxy Stadium
Times shown in your local time
TCU Horned Frogs stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+4.6
45th in FBS
Adj. offense
24.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
20.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 23.4 | 101 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 13.9 | 6 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.24 | 53 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.59 | 8 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 129.6 | 120 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 289.6 | 10 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 117.4 | 21 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 156.1 | 10 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.43 | 130 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.86 | 67 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.43 | 36 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.86 | 123 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.01 | 112 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.06 | 21 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 42.0% | 79 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 34.6% | 8 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.1% | 110 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 8.5% | 7 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.4% | 82 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.5% | 75 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.49 | 112 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.80 | 66 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 31 | 45 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 26 | 20 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.1 | 57 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.14 | 138 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.13 | 56 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.04 | 31 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.09 | 25 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 39.4% | 110 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 44.1% | 53 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.1% | 85 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 25.3% | 123 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 25.2% | 15 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 43.8% | 49 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 32.3% | 16 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.7% | 95 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 58.8% | 70 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.