Matchup analysis
Our model projects TCU 24, Kansas 22 at Amon G. Carter Stadium in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: TCU wins about 57% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.8 points and 46 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Kansas is 3-4 against the 62nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31 and allowing 24 points per game (+7 per game). TCU is 3-4 against the 55th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 13.9 points per game (+9.5 per game).
TCU's strong defense (21st) should limit Kansas's middle-of-the-pack offense (51st of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.8 points against an average defense). Expect TCU to find it hard going: Kansas's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th) outranks TCU's below-average offense (85th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kansas by 20 and TCU by 25 about 80% of the time.
TCU gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour TCU by about 0.7. The game is on FS1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kansas / TCU) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | TCU -5.75 | 46.5 | +190 / -227.5 |
| FanDuel | TCU -5.5 | 46.5 | +168 / -205 |
| theScore Bet | TCU -6.5 | 46.5 | +180 / -215 |
| BetRivers | TCU -6 | 46.5 | +195 / -250 |
| DraftKings | TCU -6 | 46.5 | +190 / -230 |
| BetMGM | TCU -6 | 46.5 | +185 / -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | TCU -5.5 | 46.5 | +195 / -250 |
| Pinnacle | TCU -5.5 | 47 | +190 / -225 |
| Bovada | TCU -5.5 | 47 | +190 / -230 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | TCU win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | TCU -3 | 46.0 | 57% |
| Market consensus | TCU -6 | 46.5 | 67% |
| Blended projection | TCU -5.5 | 47.5 | 64% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- TCU win probability
- model 57% · market (no-vig) 67% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model TCU -2.8 · market TCU -5.75 · difference -2.9 pts (TCU view)
- Total
- model 46.0 · market 46.5 · difference -0.5
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies TCU 67%.
Model margin is 2.9 pts more toward Kansas than the market.
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Kansas vs TCU: stat comparison
| Stat | Kansas | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0#55 | 23.4#101 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.0#68 | 13.9#6 |
| Yards per play | 6.48#35 | 6.24#53 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.59#67 | 4.59#8 |
| Rushing yards per game | 215.6#22 | 129.6#120 |
| Net passing yards per game | 240.1#51 | 289.6#10 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 175.1#98 | 117.4#21 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 179.3#27 | 156.1#10 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#79 | 1.43#130 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57#110 | 0.86#67 |
| Sacks per game | 1.71#94 | 2.43#36 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57#51 | 2.86#123 |
| Stat | Kansas | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09#65 | +0.01#112 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#37 | -0.06#21 |
| Success rate | 41.2%#96 | 42.0%#79 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.6%#36 | 34.6%#8 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.2%#10 | 11.1%#110 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#65 | 8.5%#7 |
| Havoc rate | 15.9%#26 | 13.4%#82 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1%#92 | 13.5%#75 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.92#89 | 3.49#112 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.21#19 | 3.80#66 |
| Average starting field position | own 27#121 | own 31#45 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#129 | own 26#20 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 70.3#21 | 67.1#57 |
| Stat | Kansas | TCU |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12#44 | -0.14#138 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05#82 | +0.13#56 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#35 | -0.04#31 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02#55 | -0.09#25 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.7%#65 | 39.4%#110 |
| Passing success rate | 37.3%#113 | 44.1%#53 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.6%#5 | 18.1%#85 |
| Passing-down success rate | 24.8%#125 | 25.3%#123 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.4%#51 | 25.2%#15 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4%#104 | 43.8%#49 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.0%#21 | 32.3%#16 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.9%#39 | 57.7%#95 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.0%#49 | 58.8%#70 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kansas schedule · TCU schedule · all Week 9 projections
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