Matchup analysis
Our model projects Arizona 27, TCU 18 at Casino Del Sol Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Arizona wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.7 points and 44.8 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
TCU is 3-4 against the 55th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 23.4 and allowing 13.9 points per game (+9.5 per game). Arizona (No. 22) is 6-1 against the 78th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+19.4 per game).
Expect TCU to find it hard going: Arizona's strong defense (22nd) outranks TCU's below-average offense (85th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.7 points against an average defense). Arizona's strong offense (26th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.4 points against an average defense) meets TCU's strong defense (21st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Arizona puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between TCU by 13 and Arizona by 32 about 80% of the time.
Arizona gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Arizona by about 7.6. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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TCU vs Arizona: stat comparison
| Stat | TCU | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.4#101 | 36.1#22 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.9#6 | 16.7#23 |
| Yards per play | 6.24#53 | 6.96#13 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.59#8 | 4.81#15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.6#120 | 154.9#93 |
| Net passing yards per game | 289.6#10 | 311.6#8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 117.4#21 | 127.4#33 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 156.1#10 | 187.7#43 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.43#130 | 1.00#80 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#67 | 0.43#124 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#36 | 2.71#19 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.86#123 | 2.43#107 |
| Stat | TCU | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01#112 | +0.21#17 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#21 | -0.04#31 |
| Success rate | 42.0%#79 | 49.7%#12 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.6%#8 | 35.0%#15 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#110 | 14.9%#24 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.5%#7 | 10.3%#30 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#82 | 13.6%#74 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.5%#75 | 14.1%#93 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.49#112 | 4.68#29 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.80#66 | 2.69#1 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#45 | own 29#88 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#20 | own 28#39 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.1#57 | 67.0#61 |
| Stat | TCU | Arizona |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.14#138 | +0.05#86 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13#56 | +0.33#9 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.04#31 | -0.00#54 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#25 | -0.06#32 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.4%#110 | 47.5%#35 |
| Passing success rate | 44.1%#53 | 52.3%#9 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.1%#85 | 17.4%#76 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.3%#123 | 43.4%#5 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.2%#15 | 29.6%#67 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.8%#49 | 58.6%#2 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.3%#16 | 36.9%#50 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.7%#95 | 73.2%#19 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.8%#70 | 46.8%#20 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: TCU schedule · Arizona schedule · all Week 10 projections
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