2026 schedule
Arizona Wildcats
2026 season so far
Arizona (No. 22) is 6-1 against the 78th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.1 and allowing 16.7 points per game (+19.4 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Arizona ranks 22nd of 139 FBS teams overall — 26th on offense and 22nd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at Texas Tech in Week 9. We project Arizona 26, Texas Tech 29 — Arizona wins 41% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
1-1 · SOS #16
Win 35-7
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 35.6
Total 57.8
DraftKings
ARIZ -33.5
Total 59.5
Final Arizona by 28. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 42 points — under the 59.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Arizona -32.5 (open Arizona -31.5) · O/U 59 (open 57.5) · ML +1800 / -8250 · Arizona 95% no-vig · model vs market +3.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Arizona view)
ESPN+ Casino Del Sol Stadium - at
#15 BYU Cougars
2-0 · SOS #34
Loss 17-28
Week 2
Our number· pregame
BYU by 4
Total 50
DraftKings
BYU -6.5
Total 49.5
Final BYU by 11. BYU beat the spread. 45 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: BYU -6.75 (open BYU -7) · O/U 49.25 (open 50.5) · ML +237.5 / -290 · BYU 71% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -11 pct pts (BYU view)
Fox LaVell Edwards Stadium - vs
Northern Illinois Huskies
0-3 · SOS #59
Win 42-17
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 8.1
Total 47.7
DraftKings
ARIZ -34.5
Total 50.5
Final Arizona by 25. Northern Illinois beat the spread. 59 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Arizona -34.5 (open Arizona -35) · O/U 50.25 (open 49.75) · ML +2000 / -6500 · Arizona 95% no-vig · model vs market -26.4 pts, -25 pct pts (Arizona view)
TNT Casino Del Sol Stadium - at
Washington State Cougars
1-3 · SOS #33
Win 34-24
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 5.9
Total 50.3
DraftKings
ARIZ -11.5
Total 47.5
Final Arizona by 10. Washington State beat the spread. 58 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Arizona -11.75 · O/U 47.5 (open 48) · ML -430 / +327.5 · Washington State 22% no-vig · model vs market +5.8 pts, +13 pct pts (Washington State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 3 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPUW)CBS Martin Stadium - vs
Cincinnati Bearcats
4-1 · SOS #41
Win 34-7
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 9.5
Total 55.7
DraftKings
ARIZ -7
Total 56.5
Final Arizona by 27. Arizona beat the spread. 41 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Arizona -6.75 (open Arizona -7.75) · O/U 56 (open 54.75) · ML +227.5 / -277.5 · Arizona 71% no-vig · model vs market +2.8 pts, +3 pct pts (Arizona view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 11 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDMA)Fox Casino Del Sol Stadium - at
West Virginia Mountaineers
3-3 · SOS #56
Win 52-31
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 10.2
Total 60
DraftKings
ARIZ -3.5
Total 61.5
Final Arizona by 21. Arizona beat the spread. 83 points — over the 61.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Arizona -3.5 (open Arizona -3) · O/U 61.5 (open 60.75) · ML -160 / +135 · West Virginia 41% no-vig · model vs market -6.7 pts, -16 pct pts (West Virginia view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind 11 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMGW)TNT Milan Puskar Stadium - vs
Iowa State Cyclones
3-4 · SOS #29
Win 39-3
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 9.9
Total 51.9
DraftKings
ARIZ -11.5
Total 51.5
Final Arizona by 36. Arizona beat the spread. 42 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Arizona -11.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML +300 / -390 · Arizona 76% no-vig · model vs market -1.6 pts, -2 pct pts (Arizona view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 67°F, Wind 6 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDMA)ESPN2 Casino Del Sol Stadium - at
#13 Texas Tech Red Raiders
6-1 · SOS #74
Sat, Oct 31, 4:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 26-29 · 41%
Our number
Texas Tech by 3
Total 55
DraftKings
TTU -3.5
Total 54.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Texas Tech -3.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +140 / -169.5 · Texas Tech 60% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -1 pct pts (Texas Tech view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 60°F, Wind 5 mph S, 11% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTESPN Galaxy Stadium - vs
TCU Horned Frogs
3-4 · SOS #55
Sat, Nov 7, 3:15 AM
Week 10
Proj 27-18 · 74%
Our number
Arizona by 9
Total 45
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Casino Del Sol Stadium - vs
#6 Utah Utes
7-0 · SOS #64
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 27-26 · 51%
Our number
Arizona by 1
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Casino Del Sol Stadium - at
Kansas State Wildcats
4-3 · SOS #83
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 30-24 · 66%
Our number
Arizona by 6
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bill Snyder Family Stadium - vs
Arizona State Sun Devils
4-3 · SOS #37
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 34-20 · 82%
Our number
Arizona by 14
Total 54
DraftKings
ARIZ -4.5
Total 52.5
We're 9.5 points higher on Arizona than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Arizona -4.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML +180 / -218 · Arizona 66% no-vig · model vs market +9.5 pts, +16 pct pts (Arizona view)
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Arizona Wildcats stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+12.2
22nd in FBS
Adj. offense
32.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
20.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 36.1 | 22 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 16.7 | 23 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.96 | 13 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.81 | 15 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 154.9 | 93 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 311.6 | 8 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 127.4 | 33 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 187.7 | 43 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | 80 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.43 | 124 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.71 | 19 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.43 | 107 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.21 | 17 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.04 | 31 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 49.7% | 12 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 35.0% | 15 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 14.9% | 24 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.3% | 30 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.6% | 74 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.1% | 93 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.68 | 29 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 2.69 | 1 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 29 | 88 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 28 | 39 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.0 | 61 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.05 | 86 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.33 | 9 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.00 | 54 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.06 | 32 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.5% | 35 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 52.3% | 9 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 17.4% | 76 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 43.4% | 5 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 29.6% | 67 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 58.6% | 2 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.9% | 50 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 73.2% | 19 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 46.8% | 20 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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